scholarly journals Characterizing droughts under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 5875-5902 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Törnros ◽  
L. Menzel
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Jordan River ◽  
River Region ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied in order to address the characteristics of current and future agricultural droughts in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPI was applied on spatially interpolated monthly precipitation data at multiple timescales, i.e. accumulated precipitation was considered over a number of timescales, for example: 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. The results show that the 6 month SPI best explains the inter-annual variation of the NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing agricultural drought in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6 month SPI was applied to three climate projections based on the IPCC emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031–2060 with 1961–1990, it is shown that the mean drought duration is projected to increase. Furthermore, the droughts are expected to become more severe because the frequency of severe and extreme droughts is projected to increase and the frequency of moderate drought is projected to decrease. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during drought was simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

scholarly journals Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Törnros ◽  
L. Menzel
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Jordan River ◽  
River Region ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Standardized Precipitation–Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescales – for example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031–2060 with 1961–1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment in the Khushab Region of Pakistan Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Geospatial Methods

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khubaib Abuzar ◽  
Muhammad Shafiq ◽  
Syed Amer Mahmood ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Tayyaba Khalil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Gis And Remote Sensing

Drought is a harmful and slow natural phenomenon that has significant effects on the economy, social life,agriculture and environment of the country. Due to its slow process it is difficult to study this phenomenon. RemoteSensing and GIS tools play a key role in studying different hazards like droughts. The main objective of the study wasto investigate drought risk by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in district Khushab, Pakistan. Landsat ETMimages for the year 2003, 2009 and 2015 were utilized for spatial and temporal analysis of agricultural andmeteorological drought. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andrainfall anomaly indices were calculated to identify the drought prone areas in the study area. To monitormeteorological drought SPI values were used and NDVI was calculated for agricultural drought. These indices wereintegrated to compute the spatial and temporal drought maps. Three zones; no drought, slight drought and moderatedrought were identified. Final drought map shows that 30.21% of the area faces moderate drought, 28.36% faces slightdrought while nearly 41.3% faces no drought situation. Drought prevalence and severity is present more in the southernpart of Khushab district than the northern part. Most of the northern part is not under any type of drought. Thus, anoverall outcome of this study shows that risk areas can be assessed appropriately by integration of various data sourcesand thereby management plans can be prepared to deal with the hazard.

scholarly journals Monitoring agricultural drought using geospatial techniques: a case study of Thal region of Punjab, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 203-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Amin ◽  
Mobushir Riaz Khan ◽  
Sher Shah Hassan ◽  
Aftab Ahmad Khan ◽  
Muhammad Imran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
Agricultural Risk

Abstract The Thal region of Punjab often experiences dry weather conditions with extreme variability in rainfall on a spatiotemporal scale during Rabi cropping season. The current study assesses the impacts of agricultural drought on wheat crops for 2000–2015. MOD13Q1 and CHIRPS data were used for identifying and assessing variation in agricultural drought patterns and severity. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Stress Vegetation Index (STVI) and wheat crop yield anomalies were computed to characterize the gravity of drought across the Thal region. The results indicate that the wheat Rabi cropping seasons of the years 2000–2002 experienced extreme agricultural drought, with a spatial difference in severity level causing low and poor yield, while the years 2011 and 2014 were almost normal among all the years, leaving varied impacts on wheat yield. The combined agricultural risk map was generated by integrating the agricultural and meteorological droughts severity maps. The combined risk map generated using weighted overlay analysis of all the parameters indicate that the total Thal area can be classified into slight, moderate and no drought covering 28.12, 12.76, and 59.12% respectively of the total area. Hence an agricultural risk map would be extremely helpful as a tool to guide the decision-making process for monitoring drought risk on agricultural productivity.

scholarly journals A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 471-487
Author(s):  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Brunella Bonaccorso ◽  
Mario Martina
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices

Abstract. Since drought is a multifaceted phenomenon, more than one variable should be considered for a proper understanding of such an extreme event in order to implement adequate risk mitigation strategies such as weather or agricultural indices insurance programmes or disaster risk financing tools. This paper proposes a new composite drought index that accounts for both meteorological and agricultural drought conditions by combining in a probabilistic framework two consolidated drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the vegetation health index (VHI). The new index, called the probabilistic precipitation vegetation index (PPVI), is scalable, transferable all over the globe and can be updated in near real time. Furthermore, it is a remote-sensing product, since precipitation is retrieved from satellite data and the VHI is a remote-sensing index. In addition, a set of rules to objectively identify drought events is developed and implemented. Both the index and the set of rules have been applied to Haiti. The performance of the PPVI has been evaluated by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and compared to that of the SPI and VHI considered separately. The new index outperformed SPI and VHI both in drought identification and characterization, thus revealing potential for an effective implementation within drought early-warning systems.

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment in the Khushab Region of Pakistan Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Geospatial Methods

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khubaib Abuzar ◽  
Muhammad Shafiq ◽  
Syed Amer Mahmood ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Tayyaba Khalil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Gis And Remote Sensing

Drought is a harmful and slow natural phenomenon that has significant effects on the economy, social life,agriculture and environment of the country. Due to its slow process it is difficult to study this phenomenon. RemoteSensing and GIS tools play a key role in studying different hazards like droughts. The main objective of the study wasto investigate drought risk by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in district Khushab, Pakistan. Landsat ETMimages for the year 2003, 2009 and 2015 were utilized for spatial and temporal analysis of agricultural andmeteorological drought. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andrainfall anomaly indices were calculated to identify the drought prone areas in the study area. To monitormeteorological drought SPI values were used and NDVI was calculated for agricultural drought. These indices wereintegrated to compute the spatial and temporal drought maps. Three zones; no drought, slight drought and moderatedrought were identified. Final drought map shows that 30.21% of the area faces moderate drought, 28.36% faces slightdrought while nearly 41.3% faces no drought situation. Drought prevalence and severity is present more in the southernpart of Khushab district than the northern part. Most of the northern part is not under any type of drought. Thus, anoverall outcome of this study shows that risk areas can be assessed appropriately by integration of various data sourcesand thereby management plans can be prepared to deal with the hazard.

Understanding changes in meteorological drought in regional UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele Reyniers ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Yi He ◽  
Qianyu Zha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

<div> <p>Extreme droughts can cause enormous ecological and economic damage, and are expected to become more severe in some regions due to climate change. For water managers, it is crucial to understand extreme droughts and how they are projected to change compared to previous droughts, in order to plan for resilience to these events. </p> </div><div> <p>Changes in water resources do not only result from changes in precipitation and periods of below normal precipitation (meteorological droughts), they are also shaped by changes in atmospheric moisture demand, characterized here by potential evaporation. Therefore we use two standardized indicators, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) to isolate the impact of projected changes in precipitation and potential evaporation. We consider the contribution of precipitation deficits and potential evaporation changes to projected changes in future drought duration, severity and frequency. We explore droughts and their development across different time scales, as their diversity – from flash droughts to creeping multi-year droughts – adds to the challenge.</p> <p>We make use of the recently released 12-member 12-km horizontal resolution perturbed parameter ensemble of spatially coherent regional UKCP18 climate projections (with and without bias adjustment). This ensemble of projections was produced by the UK Met Office by dynamically downscaling a perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 simulations with a regional variant. The skill of the UKCP18 regional ensemble members for drought simulation is evaluated by comparison with observed drought metrics for the baseline period.  <br>Projected changes in UK climate according to the UKCP18 projections include wetter winters, drier summers and generally stronger temperature increases in summer than in winter. We assess how these changes contribute to changes in drought characteristics using SPI and SPEI for each member of the ensemble. </p> </div><div> <p>While this work focusses on meteorological droughts, it will be followed by a future analysis of their propagation to hydrological droughts. This project aims to support adaptation to droughts in the region of East Anglia and is conducted in collaboration with the water company Anglian Water. </p> </div>

scholarly journals A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Brunella Bonaccorso ◽  
Mario Martina
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Operating Characteristics

Abstract. Since drought is a multifaceted phenomenon, more than one variable should be considered for a proper understanding of such extreme event in order to implement adequate risk mitigation strategies such as weather or agricultural indices insurance programs, or disaster risk financing tools. This paper proposes a new composite drought index that accounts for both meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, by combining in a probabilistic framework two consolidated drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The new index, called Probabilistic Precipitation Vegetation Index (PPVI), is scalable, transferable all over the globe and can be updated in near-real time. Furthermore, it is a remote-sensing product, since precipitation are retrieved from satellite and the VHI is a remote-sensing index. In addition, a set of rules to objectively identify drought events is developed and implemented. Both the index and the set of rules have been applied to Haiti. The performance of PPVI has been evaluated by means of the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve and compared to the ones of SPI and VHI considered separately. The new index outperformed SPI and VHI both in drought identification and characterization, thus revealing potential for an effective implementation within drought early warning systems.

scholarly journals A new agricultural drought index considering the irrigation water demand and water supply availability

2020 ◽  
Vol 104 (3) ◽  
pp. 2409-2429
Author(s):  
Zikang Xing ◽  
Miaomiao Ma ◽  
Yongqiang Wei ◽  
Xuejun Zhang ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Moisture Variation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Agricultural drought has a tremendous impact on crop yields and economic development under the context of global climate change. As an essential component of water balance in irrigated areas, artificial irrigation, which is not widely incorporated into agricultural drought indices in previous studies. Therefore, an irrigation water deficit index (IWDI) based on the estimation of irrigation water demand and supply is proposed. The performance of the new index was compared with the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI) over the upstream of the Zi River basin (UZRB). The results indicated the IWDI is highly correlated with precipitation, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration, combined with a more comprehensive moisture condition than the previous agricultural drought index. Due to the consideration of crop growth process and farmland spatial distribution, the proposed index showed a significant advantage in stressing drought conditions of agricultural concentration area and eliminating the impact of invalid soil moisture drought of non-growing seasons. Furthermore, the drought condition identified by the new index presented a good agreement with the historical drought event that occurred in 2013.7–8, which accurately reproduced the soil moisture variation and vegetation growth dynamics.

scholarly journals Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 2935-2955 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-P. Vidal ◽  
E. Martin ◽  
N. Kitova ◽  
J. Najac ◽  
J.-M. Soubeyroux
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Adaptation Scenarios

Abstract. Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation.

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