scholarly journals The impacts of future climate change and sulphur emission reductions on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, Ontario

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 3027-3054
Author(s):  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. N. Futter ◽  
P. J. Dillon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Plastic Lake

Abstract. Climate-induced drought events have a significant influence on sulphate export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying the recovery of surface waters from acidification. In the current study, a model chain that employed a statistical downscaling model, a hydrological model and two hydrochemical models was used to forecast the chemical recovery of Plastic Lake sub-catchment 1 (PC1) from acidification under proposed deposition reductions and the A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Any predicted recovery in stream acid neutralising capacity and pH owing to deposition reductions were clearly offset by large acid effluxes from climate-induced drought events. By 2100, ANC is predicted to show large variations ranging between 10 and −30 μmolc L−1. Similarly, predicted pH in 2100 is lower (>0.05 of a pH unit) than the value simulated for 2000 (pH 4.35). Despite emission reductions, the future scenario paints a bleak picture of reacidification at PC1 to levels commensurate with those of the late 1970s. The principal process behind this reacidification is the oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur compounds in wetlands during periods of low-flow (or drought), with subsequent efflux of sulphate upon re-wetting. Simulated catchment runoff under the A2 emissions scenario predictes increased intensity and frequency of low-flow events from approximately 2030 onwards. The Integrated Catchments model for Carbon indicated that stream DOC concentrations at PC1 will also increase under the future climate scenario, with temperature being the principal driver. Despite the predicted (significant) increase in DOC, pH is not predicted to further decline (beyond the climate-induced oxidation scenario), instead pH shows greater variability throughout the simulation. As echoed by many recent studies, hydrochemical models and model frameworks need to incorporate the drivers and mechanisms (at appropriate time-scales) that affect the key biogeochemical processes to reliably predict the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals The impacts of future climate change and sulphur emission reductions on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, Ontario

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 383-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. N. Futter ◽  
P. J. Dillon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Plastic Lake

Abstract. Climate-induced drought events have a significant influence on sulphate export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying the recovery of surface waters from acidification. In the current study, a model chain that employed a statistical downscaling model, a hydrological model and two hydrochemical models was used to forecast the chemical recovery of Plastic Lake sub-catchment 1 (PC1) from acidification under proposed deposition reductions and the A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Any predicted recovery in stream acid neutralising capacity and pH owing to deposition reductions were clearly offset by large acid effluxes from climate-induced drought events. By 2100, ANC is predicted to show large variations ranging between 10 and −30 μmolc L−1. Similarly, predicted pH in 2100 is lower (>0.05 of a pH unit) than the value simulated for 2000 (pH 4.35). Despite emission reductions, the future scenario paints a bleak picture of reacidification at PC1 to levels commensurate with those of the late 1970s. The principal process behind this reacidification is the oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur compounds in wetlands during periods of low-flow (or drought), with subsequent efflux of sulphate upon re-wetting. Simulated catchment runoff under the A2 emissions scenario predictes increased intensity and frequency of low-flow events from approximately 2030 onwards. The Integrated Catchments model for Carbon indicated that stream DOC concentrations at PC1 will also increase under the future climate scenario, with temperature being the principal driver. Despite the predicted (significant) increase in DOC, pH is not predicted to further decline (beyond the climate-induced oxidation scenario), instead pH shows greater variability throughout the simulation. As echoed by many recent studies, hydrochemical models and model frameworks need to incorporate the drivers and mechanisms (at appropriate time-scales) that affect the key biogeochemical processes to reliably predict the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

scholarly journals Caring for the future: Climate change and intergenerational responsibility in China and the UK

Geoforum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Diprose ◽  
Chen Liu ◽  
Gill Valentine ◽  
Robert M. Vanderbeck ◽  
Katie McQuaid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Heatwaves in the Future Warmer Climate of South Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Innocent Mbokodo ◽  
Mary-Jane Bopape ◽  
Hector Chikoore ◽  
Francois Engelbrecht ◽  
Nthaduleni Nethengwe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
South African Society ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Future

Weather and climate extremes, such as heat waves (HWs), have become more frequent due to climate change, resulting in negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts in many regions of the world. The high vulnerability of South African society to the impacts of warm extreme temperatures makes the study of the effect of climate change on future HWs necessary across the country. We investigated the projected effect of climate change on future of South Africa with a focus on HWs using an ensemble of regional climate model downscalings obtained from the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, with 1983–2012 as the historical baseline. Simulations were performed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration) and 8.5 (high GHG concentration) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We found that the 30-year period average maximum temperatures may rise by up to 6 °C across much of the interior of South Africa by 2070–2099 with respect to 1983–2012, under a high GHG concentration. Simulated HW thresholds for all ensemble members were similar and spatially consistent with observed HW thresholds. Under a high GHG concentration, short lasting HWs (average of 3–4 days) along the coastal areas are expected to increase in frequency in the future climate, however the coasts will continue to experience HWs of relatively shorter duration compared to the interior regions. HWs lasting for shorter duration are expected to be more frequent when compared to HWs of longer durations (over two weeks). The north-western part of South Africa is expected to have the most drastic increase in HWs occurrences across the country. Whilst the central interior is not projected to experience pronounced increases in HW frequency, HWs across this region are expected to last longer under future climate change. Consistent patterns of change are projected for HWs under moderate GHG concentrations, but the changes are smaller in amplitude. Increases in HW frequency and duration across South Africa may have significant impacts on human health, economic activities, and livelihoods in vulnerable communities.

Assessment of future climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 1327-1342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Andreas Matzarakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future

Assessment of future variations of streamflow is essential for research regarding climate and climate change. This study is focused on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece and aims to assess the future response of annual and seasonal streamflow and its impacts on the hydrological regime, in combination with other fundamental aspects of the hydrological cycle in areas with different climate classification. ArcSWAT ArcGIS extension was used to simulate the future responses of streamflow. Future meteorological data were obtained from various regional climate models, and analysed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. In all the examined areas, streamflow is expected to be reduced. Areas characterized by continental climate will face minor reductions by the mid-century that will become very intense by the end and thus these areas will become more resistant to future changes. Autumn season will face the strongest reductions. Areas characterized by Mediterranean conditions will be very vulnerable in terms of future climate change and winter runoff will face the most significant decreases. Reduced precipitation is the main reason for decreased streamflow. High values of actual evapotranspiration by the end of the century will act as an inhibitor towards reduced runoff and partly counterbalance the water losses.

The City Pack - the co-production of an urban climate service providing local summaries of a city's future climate 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Fuller ◽  
Claire Scannell ◽  
Victoria Ramsey ◽  
Rebecca Parfitt ◽  
Nicola Golding
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
City Council ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
The City

<p>In 2018, the UN estimated that around 55% of the world’s population currently live within urban areas, with this value projected to rise to 60% by 2030 (United Nations, 2018). High levels of urbanisation, coupled with an increasing trend in extreme weather under future climate change scenarios, combine to create significant challenges to increasing urban resilience for the future (Masson et al., 2020).</p><p>Urban climate services provide tools to support decision making at a range of scales across the city, from day-to-day operations to informing urban design over longer timescales (Grimmond et al., 2015). Whilst urban climate services may be developed at a range of scales (Grimmond et al., 2020), this presentation looks at a prototype climate service which provides long-term climate change projections at the city-specific scale. The ‘City Pack’ was developed through a process of co-production, in which project development aims to move away from a one-way push of scientific information, to a two-way collaborative process of knowledge construction and sharing (Vincent et al., 2019).</p><p>This ‘City Pack’ service was co-developed by the Met Office and Bristol City Council following an assessment of the Council’s climate information needs. The City Pack comprises of three non-technical factsheets which explain how the climate of Bristol has changed and will continue to change into the 21<sup>st</sup> Century based on the UKCP climate projections. The City Pack’s primary aims are to raise awareness of how a cities climate may change in the future and to inform the development of city resilience whilst also providing a tool to be used by city stakeholders to raise awareness of climate change across the council. The audience for the City Pack therefore includes city officials, city planners and the general public. The Bristol City Pack has since provided an evidence base for the Bristol City Council Climate Change Risk Assessment and informed Bristol’s Climate Strategy. In addition, the City Pack has been used to engage with the council’s wider stakeholders and also as a communication and training tool. As such, whilst the co-production of a climate service may be time and resource intensive, the process may also be rewarded with the production of a highly tailored and user-relevant tool.</p><p>Following the success of the prototype ‘City Pack’ service for Bristol City Council, the Met Office are continuing to produce City Packs for additional cities across the UK, and also in China. The project is seeking to ascertain if services which are co-produced with and bespoke to one set of stakeholders, may provide an equally valuable service for other cities and if so, how can we make these services scalable.</p>

scholarly journals Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (14) ◽  
pp. 3337-3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Friedlingstein ◽  
P. Cox ◽  
R. Betts ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
W. von Bloh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Carbon Cycle ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

scholarly journals Carbon Balance of Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Change: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 533
Author(s):  
Rong Leng ◽  
Quanzhi Yuan ◽  
Yushuang Wang ◽  
Qian Kuang ◽  
Ping Ren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Balance Study ◽  
Model Projection ◽  
Climatic Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Climate change has brought significant impacts upon the natural ecological environment and human social development. The future carbon balance study has become an important part of research on the impacts of climate change. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a key area for studying climate change. Grassland, as a typical ecosystem of the QTP, embodies the sensitivity of the plateau to the climatic environment, so the carbon balance of grassland under future climate change conditions is important for studying global change. This paper reviewed the literature on carbon balance projection of grassland on the QTP under climate change. Two types of research methods were used to analyze and discuss the studies’ results, including experimental scenario projection and model projection. The experiment projected that appropriate temperature and moisture could enhance the carbon sink capacity of a grassland ecosystem, where moisture played a leading role. The model projection results showed that the carbon balance under different spatial and temporal scales were different. Although both can project the carbon balance of the study area, there are still some uncertainties. In addition, this research area should also consider the influence of human activity and plateau pikas to more accurately project the future carbon balance.

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