scholarly journals THE EXTENT OF AGRICULTURAL LAND DAMAGE IN VARIOUS TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHT SCENARIOS: DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W4 ◽  
pp. 51-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Antoni ◽  
R. A. Bantan ◽  
H. M. Taki ◽  
W. Anurogo ◽  
M. Z. Lubis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Large Power ◽  
Aster Image ◽  
Run Up

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The southern coastal areas of Java are highly vulnerable areas of earthquake hazard because they located 200&amp;thinsp;km from the southern Java subduction zone. This zone is an active seismicity area, resulting in many tectonic earthquakes caused by collisions and shift between the plates. This shift when it occurs under the sea surface with a large power intensity can lead to a tsunami. This research conducted to identify the extent of agricultural land (AL) damaged by the tsunami for disaster risk management and mitigation. Numerical modelling was performed to determine the run-up height of the tsunami through numerical data. This model was designed using the worst-case scenario. The tsunami inundation model analysed from the coming wave (run-up) with a height of 30&amp;thinsp;m. This model used scenarios of tsunami run-up height in a coastline, coarse coefficient and slope. The data extracted using remote sensing (RS) data was the slope obtained from the ASTER image GDEM data, the agricultural land productivity data obtained using NDVI vegetation index transformation and field data on productivity, and tsunami hazard analysis with various altitude scenarios using run-up model impact on existing AL conditions. The elevation-data was obtained from the 15&amp;thinsp;m ASTER image data (GDEM) that was reclassified into a slope class map. The risk of destruction of AL based on wave height extracted by using RS data generated rice risk loss index of AL of 190.5071&amp;thinsp;tons for a height of 1&amp;thinsp;m, 1851.522&amp;thinsp;tons for a height of 5&amp;thinsp;m, 7402.71&amp;thinsp;tons for a height of 10&amp;thinsp;m, 10776.47&amp;thinsp;tons to a height of 15&amp;thinsp;m, 11823.9&amp;thinsp;tons for height 20&amp;thinsp;m, and 11824.27&amp;thinsp;tons to a height of 30&amp;thinsp;m.</p>

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN WITH GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR LOWLAND COASTAL ZONES

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Nabil Ismail ◽  
Moheb Iskander ◽  
Walid El-Sayed
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Universal Design ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Coastal Zone Management ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Zone Management ◽  
Run Up

This paper presents an assessment of the performance of a shoreline revetment; M. Ali Seawall, placed to protect the land behind against flooding and overtopping at coastal site, within Abu Qir Bay, East of Alexandria along the Nile Delta coast. Coastal zone management of the bay coastline is of utmost significance to the protection of the low agricultural land and the industrial complex located in the rear side of the seawall under the current and progressive effects of climate change. The latest storm in December 2010, which hit the Nile Delta and which was the severest in the last decades showed that generated surges, up to 1.0 m as well as a maximum of 7.5 m wave height in the offshore of Alexandria presented a major natural hazard in coastal zones in terms of wave run up and overtopping. The storm, fortunately, resulted in a partial and modest flooding of the zone behind the seawall particularly in the beach segment, located in the middle of the seawall. This research project aims to the design review of the seawall which was first constructed in 1830 to protect the lowland agricultural area, 2.0 m below mean sea level, and was rehabilitated in 1981 as part of the Master Plan of the Nile Delta Coastal Zone Management. The seawall was further upgraded in 2009; one year before the 2010 storm. The paper will give an overview of the seawall design and its upgrades and the current conducted hydrodynamic analyses to estimate wave height distributions, wave run up and overtopping over the seawall and its beach segment. Use has been made of the in-house modified ImSedTran-2D model as well as universal design standards as EurOtop (2008). Based on the results for worst design scenarios, recommendations are given to increase the height of the seawall cap, to strengthen the beach top and back slope with a facility to drain storm water to increase coastal resilience behind the seawall. Comparison of the predicted overtopping with the observed wave overtopping volumes during the 8hrs-2010 storm, allowed the verification of the used universal design tools. Impact of precise estimate of storm and barometric surge as well as seawall armor roughness and shapes on overtopping rates are highlighted.

scholarly journals Modelling with Volna-OP2—Towards Tsunami Threat Reduction for the Irish Coastline

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Giles ◽  
Brian McConnell ◽  
Frédéric Dias
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Up

Tsunamis are infrequent events that have the potential to be extremely destructive. The last major tsunami to effect the Irish coastline was the Lisbon 1755 event. That event acts as a candidate worst case scenario for hazard assessment and the impacts on the Irish Coastline are presented here. As there is no general consensus on the 1755 earthquake source, multiple sources highlighted in the literature are investigated. These sources are used to generate the initial conditions and the resultant tsunami waves are simulated with the massively parallelised Volna-OP2 finite volume tsunami code. The hazard associated with the event is captured on three gradated levels. A reduced faster than real time tsunami ensemble is produced for the North-East Atlantic on a regional level in 93 s using two Nvidia V100 GPUs. By identifying the most vulnerable sections of the Irish coastline from this regional forecast, some locally refined simulations are further carried out in a faster than real time setting. As arrival times on the coastline can be on the O (mins), these faster than real time reduced ensembles are of great benefit for tsunami warning. Volna-OP2’s capabilities in this respect are clearly demonstrated here. Finally, high resolution inundation simulations, which build upon the ensemble results, are carried out. To date this study provides the best estimate of assessing the hazard associated with a Lisbon-type tsunami event for the Irish coastline. The results of the inundation mapping highlight that along the vulnerable sections of coastline, inundation is constrained to low-lying areas with maximum run-up heights of 3.4 m being found.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

scholarly journals A Thermally Conductive Pt/AAO Catalyst for Hydrogen Passive Autocatalytic Recombination

Catalysts ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Alina E. Kozhukhova ◽  
Stephanus P. du Preez ◽  
Aleksander A. Malakhov ◽  
Dmitri G. Bessarabov
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Particle Size ◽  
Combustion Temperature ◽  
Volume Fraction ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Al Alloy ◽  
Impregnation Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Thermal Distribution

In this study, a Pt/anodized aluminum oxide (AAO) catalyst was prepared by the anodization of an Al alloy (Al6082, 97.5% Al), followed by the incorporation of Pt via an incipient wet impregnation method. Then, the Pt/AAO catalyst was evaluated for autocatalytic hydrogen recombination. The Pt/AAO catalyst’s morphological characteristics were determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average Pt particle size was determined to be 3.0 ± 0.6 nm. This Pt/AAO catalyst was tested for the combustion of lean hydrogen (0.5–4 vol% H2 in the air) in a recombiner section testing station. The thermal distribution throughout the catalytic surface was investigated at 3 vol% hydrogen (H2) using an infrared camera. The Al/AAO system had a high thermal conductivity, which prevents the formation of hotspots (areas where localized surface temperature is higher than an average temperature across the entire catalyst surface). In turn, the Pt stability was enhanced during catalytic hydrogen combustion (CHC). A temperature gradient over 70 mm of the Pt/AAO catalyst was 23 °C and 42 °C for catalysts with uniform and nonuniform (worst-case scenario) Pt distributions. The commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ was used to compare the experimentally observed and numerically simulated thermal distribution of the Pt/AAO catalyst. The effect of the initial H2 volume fraction on the combustion temperature and conversion of H2 was investigated. The activation energy for CHC on the Pt/AAO catalyst was 19.2 kJ/mol. Prolonged CHC was performed to assess the durability (reactive metal stability and catalytic activity) of the Pt/AAO catalyst. A stable combustion temperature of 162.8 ± 8.0 °C was maintained over 530 h of CHC. To confirm that Pt aggregation was avoided, the Pt particle size and distribution were determined by TEM before and after prolonged CHC.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Match Demands Using Ball-in-Play versus Whole Match Data in Professional Soccer Players of the English Championship

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Repeated Measures Design ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Peak Match ◽  
Playing Time

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.

scholarly journals Trissolcus japonicus (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) Causes Low Levels of Parasitism in Three North American Pentatomids Under Field Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M Milnes ◽  
Elizabeth H Beers
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Classical Biological Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Finding ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Egg Masses ◽  
Trissolcus Japonicus

Abstract Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead), an Asian parasitoid of Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), was first detected in North America in 2014. Although testing in quarantine facilities as a candidate for classical biological control is ongoing, adventive populations have appeared in multiple sites in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Extensive laboratory testing of T. japonicus against other North American pentatomids and H. halys has revealed a higher rate of parasitism of H. halys, but not complete host specificity. However, laboratory tests are necessarily artificial, in which many host finding and acceptance cues may be circumvented. We offered sentinel egg masses of three native pentatomid (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) pest species (Chinavia hilaris (Say), Euschistus conspersus Uhler, and Chlorochroa ligata (Say)) in a field paired-host assay in an area with a well-established adventive population of T. japonicus near Vancouver, WA. Overall, 67% of the H. halys egg masses were parasitized by T. japonicus during the 2-yr study. Despite the ‘worst case’ scenario for a field test (close proximity of the paired egg masses), the rate of parasitism (% eggs producing adult wasps) on all three native species was significantly less (0.4–8%) than that on H. halys eggs (77%). The levels of successful parasitism of T. japonicus of the three species are C. hilaris > E. conspersus > C. ligata. The potential impact of T. japonicus on these pentatomids is probably minimal.

scholarly journals Coupling Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations and Statistical Moments for Designing Healthy Indoor Spaces

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shamia Hoque ◽  
Firoza Omar
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Computational Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Air Flow ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Statistical Moments ◽  
Dispersion Pattern ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Indoor Spaces

Cross-contamination between occupants in an indoor space may occur due to transfer of infectious aerosols. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides detailed insight into particle transport in indoor spaces. However, such simulations are site-specific. This study couples CFD with statistical moments and establishes a framework that transitions site-specific results to generating guidelines for designing “healthy” indoor spaces. Eighteen cases were simulated, and three parameters were assessed: inlet/outlet location, air changes per hour, and the presence/absence of desks. Aerosol release due to a simulated “sneeze” in a two-dimensional ventilated space was applied as a test case. Mean, standard deviation, and skewness of the velocity profiles and particle locations gave an overall picture of the spread and movement of the air flow in the domain. A parameter or configuration did not dominate the values, confirming the significance of considering the combined influence of multiple parameters for determining localized air-flow characteristics. Particle clustering occurred more when the inlet was positioned above the outlet. The particle dispersion pattern could be classified into two time zones: “near time”, <60 s, and “far time”, >120 s. Based on dosage, the 18 cases were classified into three groups ranging from worst case scenario to best case scenario.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document