scholarly journals Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence – a point process perspective on coastal flood damage

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 559-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Boettle ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Point Process ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Stochastic Framework ◽  
Process Perspective

Abstract. In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.

scholarly journals Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence – a point process perspective on coastal flood damage

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 6229-6269
Author(s):  
M. Boettle ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Point Process ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Stochastic Framework ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

Abstract. In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage always increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the uncertainty of flood damage increases with rising sea levels, we find that the error of our estimations in relation to the expected damage decreases.

scholarly journals Future flood risk exacerbated by the dynamic impacts of sea level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Bilskie ◽  
Diana Del Angel ◽  
David Yoskowitz ◽  
Scott Hagen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Landscapes ◽  
Block Level

Abstract A growing concern of coastal communities is an increase in flood risk and non-monetary consequences as a result of climate-induced impacts such as sea level rise (SLR). While previous studies have outlined the importance of quantifying future flood risk, most have focused on broad aggregations of monetary loss using bathtub SLR-type models. Here we quantify, for the first time at the multi-state scale, actual impacts to coastal communities at the census block level using a dynamic, high-resolution, biogeophysical modeling framework that accounts for future sea-levels and coastal landscapes. We demonstrate that future SLR can increase the number of damaged residential buildings by 600%, the population of displaced people by 500% and the need for shelter assistance of up to 460% from present-day conditions. An exponential increase in flood damage associated with increasing sea level deems it essential for stakeholders to plan for plausible future conditions rather than the current reality.

scholarly journals Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 774
Author(s):  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Daniel Lincke ◽  
Jochen Hinkel ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Erwin Lambert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
Adaptation Costs

Global scale assessments of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties, including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios), of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP scenarios), and of sea-level rise at regional scale (RSLR), as well as structural uncertainties related to the modelling of extreme sea levels, data on exposed population and assets, and the costs of flood damages, etc. This raises the following questions: which sources of uncertainty need to be considered in such assessments and what is the relative importance of each source of uncertainty in the final results? Using the coastal flood module of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we extensively explore the impact of scenario, data and model uncertainties in a global manner, i.e., by considering a large number (>2000) of simulation results. The influence of the uncertainties on the two risk metrics of expected annual damage (EAD), and adaptation costs (AC) related to coastal protection is assessed at global scale by combining variance-based sensitivity indices with a regression-based machine learning technique. On this basis, we show that the research priorities in terms of future data/knowledge acquisition to reduce uncertainty on EAD and AC differ depending on the considered time horizon. In the short term (before 2040), EAD uncertainty could be significantly decreased by 25 and 75% if the uncertainty of the translation of physical damage into costs and of the modelling of extreme sea levels could respectively be reduced. For AC, it is RSLR that primarily drives short-term uncertainty (with a contribution ~50%). In the longer term (>2050), uncertainty in EAD could be largely reduced by 75% if the SSP scenario could be unambiguously identified. For AC, it is the RCP selection that helps reducing uncertainty (up to 90% by the end of the century). Altogether, the uncertainty in future human activities (SSP and RCP) are the dominant source of the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk.

scholarly journals THE ECONOMICS OF SEA LEVEL RISE: FORECASTING FLOOD DAMAGE COST

2018 ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Angela Schedel ◽  
John Schedel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Damage Costs ◽  
Effective Option ◽  
Potential Damage

Globally, sea levels are rising. As property owners decide whether and how to protect their assets to minimize future damage, a comprehensive understanding of potential damage costs is vital to making informed, cost-effective decisions. These estimates, when combined with probabilistic modeling of future flood events and sea level rise, can be used to forecast the future costs of flood inundation. Using this information, the economic benefits of different adaptation measures are compared to select the most cost-effective option. This study describes a methodology using Expected Monetary Value (EMV) to make risk-informed decisions for adapting vulnerable assets to sea level rise.

Global analysis of the uncertainties prevailing in global-scale assessment of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Daniel Lincke ◽  
Jochen Hinckel ◽  
Goneri Le Cozannet ◽  
Erwin Lambert
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Machine Learning Technique ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Learning Technique ◽  
Adaptation Costs

<p>Global scale assessment of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (SSP scenarios), of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP scenarios), and of sea-level rise (SLR). These uncertainties also include structural uncertainties related to the modeling of extreme sea levels, vulnerability functions, and the translation of flooding-induced damage to costs. This raises the following questions: what is the relative importance of each source of uncertainty in the final global-scale results? Which sources of uncertainty need to be considered? What uncertainties are of negligible influence? Hence, getting better insights in the role played by these uncertainties allows to ease their communication and to structure the message on future coastal impacts and induced losses. Using the integrated DIVA Model (see e.g. Hinkel et al., 2014, PNAS), we extensively explore the impact of these uncertainties in a global manner, i.e. by considering a large number (~3,000) of scenario combinations and by analyzing the associated results using a regression-based machine learning technique (i.e. regression decision trees). On this basis, we show the decreasing roles, over time, of the uncertainties in the extremes’ modeling together with the increasing roles of SSP and of RCP after 2030 and 2080 for the damage and adaptation costs respectively. This means that mitigation of climate change helps to reduce uncertainty of adaptation costs, and choosing a particular SSP reduces the uncertainty on the expected damages. In addition, the tree structure of the machine learning technique allows an in-depth analysis of the interactions of the different uncertain factors. These results are discussed depending on the SLR data selected for the analysis, i.e. before and after the recently released IPCC SROCC report on September 2019.</p>

scholarly journals Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Brown ◽  
Katie Jenkins ◽  
Philip Goodwin ◽  
Daniel Lincke ◽  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Damage Costs

AbstractSea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

Multiple drivers of extreme sea levels in the northern Adriatic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Ferrarin ◽  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Mirko Orlic ◽  
Fabio Raicich ◽  
Gianfausto Salvadori
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Northern Adriatic Sea ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Northern Adriatic ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Relative Sea Level Rise

<p><span><span>Extreme sea levels at the coast result from the combination of astronomical tides with atmospherically forced fluctuations at multiple time scales. Seiches, river floods, waves, inter-annual and inter-decad</span></span><span><span>al dynamics and relative sea-level rise can also contribute to the total sea level. While tides are usually well described and predicted, the effect of the different atmospheric contributions to the sea level and their trends are still not well understood. Meso-scale atmospheric disturbances, synoptic-scale phenomena and planetary atmospheric waves (PAW) act at different temporal and spatial scales and thus generate sea-level disturbances at different frequencies. In this study, we analyze the 1872-2019 sea-level time series in Venice (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy) to investigate the relative role of the different driving factors in the extreme sea levels distribution. The adopted approach consists in 1) isolating the different contributions to the sea level by applying least-squares fitting and Fourier decomposition; 2) performing a multivariate statistical analysis which enables the dependencies among driving factors and their joint probability of occurrence to be described; 3) analyzing temporal changes in extreme sea levels and extrapolating possible future tendencies. The results highlight the fact that the most extreme sea levels are mainly dominated by the non-tidal residual, while the tide plays a secondary role. The non-tidal residual of the extreme sea levels is attributed mostly to PAW surge and storm surge, with the latter component becoming dominant for the most extreme events. The results of temporal evolution analysis confirm previous studies according to which the relative sea-level rise is the major driver of the increase in the frequency of floods in Venice over the last century. However, also long term variability in the storm activity impacted the frequency and intensity of extreme sea levels and have contributed to an increase of floods in Venice during the fall and winter months of the last three decades.</span></span></p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document