Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides

Abstract. Physical vulnerability is a challenging and fundamental issue in landslide risk assessment. Previous studies mostly focus on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall, while the long-term damage induced by slow-moving landslides is usually ignored. In this study, a method was proposed to construct physical vulnerability curves for masonry buildings by taking the Manjiapo landslide as an example. The landslide's force acting on the buildings' foundation is calculated by applying the landslide residual-thrust calculation method. Considering four rainfall scenarios, the buildings' physical responses to the thrust are simulated in terms of potential inclination by using Timoshenko's deep-beam theory. By assuming the landslide safety factor to be landslide intensity and inclination ratio to be vulnerability, a physical vulnerability curve is fitted and the relative function is constructed by applying a Weibull distribution function. To investigate the effects of buildings' parameters that influence vulnerabilities, the length, width, height, and foundation depth and Young's modulus of the foundation are analysed. The validation results on the case building show that the physical vulnerability function can give a good result in accordance with the investigation in the field. The results demonstrate that the building length, width, and foundation depth are the three most critical factors that affect the physical vulnerability value. Also, the result shows that the higher the ratio of length to width of the building, the more serious the damage to the building. Similarly, the shallower the foundation depth is, the more serious the damage will be. We hope that the established physical vulnerability curves can serve as tools for the quantitative risk assessment of slow-moving landslides.

Download Full-text

Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides

10.5194/nhess-2019-318 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Qin Chen ◽

Lixia Chen ◽

Lei Gui ◽

Kunlong Yin ◽

Dhruba Pikha Shrestha ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Beam Theory ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Weibull Function ◽

Physical Vulnerability ◽

Damage Degree ◽

Pearson Type ◽

Slow Moving ◽

Vulnerability Of Buildings

Abstract. Physical vulnerability is a difficult fundamental issue in the risk assessment of slow-moving landslides. We aim to develop a method to analyze the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. We calculate the landslide residual force on the buildings' foundation and the landslide safety factor where the buildings are located using the GEOSTUDIO code and landslide residual thrust method. Further, using Timoshenko's deep beam theory, we analyze the physical response of buildings to understand potential inclination. By applying the modified Weibull function, we fit the physical vulnerability function based on the relation between damage degree and landslide intensity. We simulate three rainfall scenarios by employing the Pearson type III distribution model to evaluate changes in the landslide's residual thrust and corresponding buildings' damage degree. To obtain the contributions of the buildings' characteristics to physical vulnerability, we conduct sensitivity analysis, demonstrating that the building length, foundation depth, and building width are the most critical factors. Two physical vulnerability curve sets are separately generated for four building lengths and five building foundation depths. The proposed method can be applied to establish the physical vulnerability of landslides. The established physical vulnerability curves are used for the quantitative risk assessment of slow-moving landslides.

Download Full-text

A Novel Framework for Landslide Risk Assessment in Mt. Umyeon, Korea

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1983 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ba-Quang-Vinh Nguyen ◽

Seung-Rae Lee ◽

Yun-Tae Kim

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Risk Index ◽

Landslide Risk ◽

Assessment Framework ◽

Physical Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability Curve ◽

Landslide Event ◽

Landslide Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Assessment And Management

<p>This study developed a novel landslide risk assessment framework to analyze landslide risk in Mt. Umyeon, Korea. The proposed framework included four main procedures: (1) Landslide hazard analysis using an ensemble statistical and physical model, (2) Analysis of physical vulnerability from vulnerability curve, (3) Analysis of physical vulnerability from semi-quantitative approach, (4) Risk index calculation from the results of previous steps using a proposed equation. The results of each step were compared to real landslide events occurred in July 2011 at Mt. Umyeon, Korea to confirm the reliability of the proposed risk assessment framework. The risk maps also were compared to real landslide event and showed that the proposed framework was successful in assessment of landslide risk at Mt. Umyeon, Korea. The new concept in landslide risk assessment of this study provides reliable decision-making in landslide risk assessment and management.</p>

Download Full-text

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-19-399-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 399-419 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Olga Mavrouli ◽

Jordi Corominas ◽

Iñaki Ibarbia ◽

Nahikari Alonso ◽

Ioseba Jugo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Road Network ◽

Retaining Wall ◽

Basque Country ◽

Unit Cost ◽

Probability Of Failure ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Transportation Corridors ◽

Slow Moving ◽

Slope Instabilities

Abstract. Transportation corridors such as roadways are often subjected to both natural instability and cut-slope failures, with substantial physical damage to the road infrastructure and threats to the circulating vehicles and passengers. In the early 2000s, the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council of the Basque Country in Spain noted the need for assessing the risk related to the geotechnical hazards of its road network, in order to assess and monitor their safety for road users. The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was selected as a tool for comparing the risk of different hazards on an objective basis. Few examples of multi-hazard risk assessment along transportation corridors exist. The methodology presented here consists of the calculation of risk, in terms of probability of failure and its respective consequences, and it was applied to 84 selected points of risk (PoR) over the entire road network managed by the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council. The types of encountered slope instabilities that are examined are rockfalls, retaining-wall failures, and slow-moving landslides. The proposed methodology includes the calculation of the probability of failure for each hazard based on an extensive collection of field data, and its association with the expected consequences. Instrumentation data from load cells and inclinometers were used for the anchored walls and the slow-moving landslides, respectively. The expected road damage was assessed for each hazard level in terms of a fixed unit cost (UC). The results indicate that the risk can be comparable for the different hazards. A total of 21 % of the PoR in the study area were found to be of very high risk.

Download Full-text

Study on the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

10.5194/nhess-2016-204 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Zhiqiang Wang ◽

Jingyi Jiang ◽

Qing Ma

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Northern China ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Physical Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability Curve ◽

Intensity Index ◽

Drought Hazard

Abstract. Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed great threaten to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. Results of the drought hazard intensity index showed that the risk of agricultural drought displayed a negative correlation with the precipitation and kept rising from 1966 to 2011. Risk assessments of yield loss ratio shows that physical vulnerability curve has magnify and reduce function to drought hazard. So improving the capacity of maize to resist drought can help them adapt to drought hazard. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China had great sensitivity to climate change and high probability for severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understanding the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to the climate change.

Download Full-text

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity of Urethane (Ethyl Carbamatc) on the Basis of Long-term Oral Administration to B6C3F1Mice

Japanese Journal of Cancer Research ◽

10.1111/j.1349-7006.1991.tb01859.x ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 82 (4) ◽

pp. 380-385 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Kouki Inai ◽

Koji Arihiro ◽

Yukio Takeshima ◽

Shuji Yonehara ◽

Yoshiro Tachiyama ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Oral Administration ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Download Full-text

Physiology-based toxicokinetic modelling of aluminium in rat and man

Archives of Toxicology ◽

10.1007/s00204-021-03107-y ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christoph Hethey ◽

Niklas Hartung ◽

Gaby Wangorsch ◽

Karin Weisser ◽

Wilhelm Huisinga

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Animal Studies ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Mixed Effect ◽

Naturally Occurring ◽

Substance Dependent ◽

Quantitative Understanding ◽

Intravenous And Oral Administration ◽

Chloride Salts

AbstractA sufficient quantitative understanding of aluminium (Al) toxicokinetics (TK) in man is still lacking, although highly desirable for risk assessment of Al exposure. Baseline exposure and the risk of contamination severely limit the feasibility of TK studies administering the naturally occurring isotope 27Al, both in animals and man. These limitations are absent in studies with 26Al as a tracer, but tissue data are limited to animal studies. A TK model capable of inter-species translation to make valid predictions of Al levels in humans—especially in toxicological relevant tissues like bone and brain—is urgently needed. Here, we present: (i) a curated dataset which comprises all eligible studies with single doses of 26Al tracer administered as citrate or chloride salts orally and/or intravenously to rats and humans, including ultra-long-term kinetic profiles for plasma, blood, liver, spleen, muscle, bone, brain, kidney, and urine up to 150 weeks; and (ii) the development of a physiology-based (PB) model for Al TK after intravenous and oral administration of aqueous Al citrate and Al chloride solutions in rats and humans. Based on the comprehensive curated 26Al dataset, we estimated substance-dependent parameters within a non-linear mixed-effect modelling context. The model fitted the heterogeneous 26Al data very well and was successfully validated against datasets in rats and humans. The presented PBTK model for Al, based on the most extensive and diverse dataset of Al exposure to date, constitutes a major advancement in the field, thereby paving the way towards a more quantitative risk assessment in humans.

Download Full-text

Quantitative Risk Assessment and Application of Landslide Disaster in Chongqing

10.3233/atde210318 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ke Li ◽

Dongsheng Liu ◽

Yanlei Wang ◽

Na She

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Assessment Method ◽

Assessment Methods ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Landslide Risk ◽

Practical Applications ◽

Geological Disasters ◽

Mathematical Probability ◽

Risk Assessment Method ◽

Discrimination Factors

Chongqing is located in southwestern China, and geological disasters occur frequently. The amount of potential landslide disasters is far greater than the number of landslides that can be managed by government funds, so the risk assessment for potential landslide disasters is critical. In practical applications, risk assessment methods based on landslide stability and loss are restricted by various factors. These methods can be simplified to semi-empirical assessment methods, which are influenced by the discrimination factors near the limit values of the determined conditions, possibly leading to sudden changes in the evaluation results and distort the conclusions. To solve this problem, we propose a full quantitative risk assessment method according to the probability of landslide damage. The mathematical probability model is used to quantitatively describe the risk assessment impacting factors, weaken the boundary influence, and improve the accuracy of landslide risk assessment. Correspondingly, the software is developed to conduct quantitative risk assessment on six landslides in Feng jie County, Chongqing, which verifies the accuracy and reliability of the full quantitative risk assessment method, and provides an important reference for judging urban landslide geological disasters.

Download Full-text

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vehicles Hit by Landslides: A Case Study

10.5194/nhess-2020-11 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Meng Lu ◽

Jie Zhang ◽

Lulu Zhang ◽

Limin Zhang

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Hong Kong ◽

Failure Probability ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Suggested Method ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Landslide Risk ◽

The Road ◽

On The Road

Abstract. Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. Nevertheless, a rigorous quantitative highway landslide risk assessment seems difficult. Using a case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method for quantitative risk assessment for highway landslides. The suggested method consists of three parts, i.e., analysis of annual failure probability of the slope, the spatial impact analysis and the consequence analysis. In the case study, the annual failure probability of the slope is analyzed based on historical failure data in Hong Kong. The spatial impact of the landslides is estimated based on empirical correlations with the geometry of the slope. The consequence is assessed based on probabilistic modeling of the traffic on the highway. Based on the suggested method, the annual failure probability of the slope, the distance from the slope and the road and the density of vehicles on the road can significantly affect the landslide risk and the suggested method can be used to quantify the effects of these factors. The suggested method can be also potentially used to analyze the highway landslide risk in other regions.

Download Full-text