Damage functions for climate-related hazards: unification and uncertainty analysis
Abstract. Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. For example, sea-level rise and changes in storm climatology are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding events. In practice there is a need for comprehensive damage assessment at an intermediate level of complexity. Answering this need, we reveal the common grounds of macroscale damage functions employed in storm damage, coastal-flood damage, and heat mortality assessment. The universal approach offers both bottom-up and top-down damage evaluation, employing either an explicit or an implicit portfolio description. Putting emphasis on the treatment of data uncertainties, we perform a sensitivity analysis across different scales. We find that the behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on the microscale level (i.e. single item) does still persist on the macroscale level (i.e. portfolio). Furthermore, the analysis of uncertainties can reveal their specific relevance, allowing for simplification of the modelling chain. Our results shed light on the role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of a unified damage function.