scholarly journals Damage functions for climate-related hazards: unification and uncertainty analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 6845-6881 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. F. Prahl ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
M. Boettle ◽  
J. P. Kropp

Abstract. Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. For example, sea-level rise and changes in storm climatology are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding events. In practice there is a need for comprehensive damage assessment at an intermediate level of complexity. Answering this need, we reveal the common grounds of macroscale damage functions employed in storm damage, coastal-flood damage, and heat mortality assessment. The universal approach offers both bottom-up and top-down damage evaluation, employing either an explicit or an implicit portfolio description. Putting emphasis on the treatment of data uncertainties, we perform a sensitivity analysis across different scales. We find that the behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on the microscale level (i.e. single item) does still persist on the macroscale level (i.e. portfolio). Furthermore, the analysis of uncertainties can reveal their specific relevance, allowing for simplification of the modelling chain. Our results shed light on the role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of a unified damage function.

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 881-894 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Prettenthaler ◽  
P. Amrusch ◽  
C. Habsburg-Lothringen

Abstract. To date, in Austria no empirical assessment of absolute damage curves has been realized on the basis of detailed information on flooded buildings due to a dam breach, presumably because of the lack of data. This paper tries to fill this gap by estimating an absolute flood-damage curve, based on data of a recent flood event in Austria in 2006. First, a concise analysis of the case study area is conducted, i.e., the maximum damage potential is identified by using raster-based GIS. Thereafter, previous literature findings on existing flood-damage functions are considered in order to determine a volume-water damage function that can be used for further flood damage assessment. Finally, the flood damage function is cross validated and applied in prediction of damage potential in the study area. For future development of the estimated flood damage curve, and to aid more general use, we propose verification against field data on damage caused by natural waves in rivers.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balqis M. Rehan ◽  
Paul Sayers ◽  
A. Ulwan M. Alayuddin ◽  
M. Fadhil M. Ghamrawi ◽  
James D. Miller ◽  
...  

<p>Damage functions are widely used to determine flood losses. National and international published damage functions are often used with little scrutiny or validation at local scales; a lack of understanding that unquestionably adds uncertainty to national flood risk assessment and investment planning. This paper examines the differences in aggregate flood damage estimates based on damage functions derived locally using local surveys and questionnaires, published national sector-based damage functions and land-use based damage functions published for Malaysia in the international literature. The paper is presented in two parts: firstly, the construction of a damage function from site-specific post-event flood surveys (covering a range of building types and flood hazard variables) and secondly, the comparison of these locally derived function with available national and international functions. A 0.05 km<sup>2</sup> residential area located in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, which consists of sparsely located houses was selected for the study. It was used to drive the site-specific damage function and an associated estimate of flood damage for a range of observed and modelled flood events. The results show that at higher depths, the use of the site-specific function suggest an aggregate damage of approximately twice than an estimate based on national functions but much less (less than 100%) than would be estimated based on international published functions. The paper concludes that the international published damage functions should be used with care and condition using local (where possible) or national understanding of flood damages to avoid a significant over estimation of losses.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3327-3334 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Boettle ◽  
J. P. Kropp ◽  
L. Reiber ◽  
O. Roithmeier ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
...  

Abstract. The assessment of coastal flood risks in a particular region requires the estimation of typical damages caused by storm surges of certain characteristics and annualities. Although the damage depends on a multitude of factors, including flow velocity, duration of flood, precaution, etc., the relationship between flood events and the corresponding average damages is usually described by a stage-damage function, which considers the maximum water level as the only damage influencing factor. Starting with different (microscale) building damage functions we elaborate a macroscopic damage function for the entire case study area Kalundborg (Denmark) on the basis of multiple coarse-graining methods and assumptions of the hydrological connectivity. We find that for small events, the macroscopic damage function mostly depends on the properties of the elevation model, while for large events it strongly depends on the assumed building damage function. In general, the damage in the case study increases exponentially up to a certain level and then less steep.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Garrote ◽  
Nestor Bernal

Multiple studies have been carried out on the correct estimation of the damages (direct tangible losses) associated with floods. However, the complex analysis and the multitude of variables conditioning the damage estimation, as well as the uncertainty in their estimation, make it difficult, even today, to reach one single, complete solution to this problem. In no case has the influence that the topographic relationship between the main floor of a residential building and the surrounding land have in the estimation of flood economic damage been analysed. To carry out this analysis, up to a total of 28 magnitude–damage functions (with different characteristics and application scales) were selected on which the effect of over-elevation and under-elevation of the main floor of the houses was simulated (at intervals of 20 cm, between −0.6 and +1 metre). According to each of the two trends, an overestimation or underestimation of flood damage was observed. This pattern was conditioned by the specific characteristics of each magnitude–damage function, meaning that the percentage of damage became asymptotic from a certain flow depth value. In a real scenario, the consideration of this variable (as opposed to its non-consideration) causes an average variation in the damage estimation around 30%. Based on these results, the analysed variable can be considered as (1) another main source of uncertainty in the correct estimation of flood damage, and (2) an essential variable to take into account in a flood damage analysis for the correct estimation of loss.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1189-1203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris F. Prahl ◽  
Diego Rybski ◽  
Markus Boettle ◽  
Jürgen P. Kropp

Abstract. Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.


2007 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gawie De Villiers ◽  
Giel Viljoen ◽  
Herman Booysen

Disaster risk management is an integral part of a scientific approach to disaster management. It refers to integrated, multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary, organizational and operational planning processes and skills to mitigate disasters. Application of the approach necessitates disaster risk analysis, requiring flood damage functions in the case of floods. A flood damage function can be described mathematically, tabularly or graphically and refers to the relationship between flood characteristics like depth and/or speed of floodwater and flood damage to a specific land use type. Research conducted at the University of the Free State indicated the value of standard residential flood damage functions and the necessity for periodic updating to secure contemporary relevance. This article focuses on updating of the latter. The article starts with an introduction to put the development, use and maintenance of standard residential flood damage functions in context with regard to the latest views on disaster risk management, risk assessment, disaster management legislation in South Africa and a computer model TEWA, in which the flood damage functions are used. Aspects that can affect flood damage are briefly discussed, followed by sections on the development and upgrading of structural flood damage functions for formal housing as well as functions for determining damage to housing contents. The development of residential flood damage functions that can be applied nationally forms the main part of the paper and is followed by a brief summary statement.


2017 ◽  
pp. 98-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Tirole

In the fourth chapter of the book “The economy of the common good”, the nature of economics as a science and research practices in their theoretical and empirical aspects are discussed. The author considers the processes of modeling, empirical verification of models and evaluation of research quality. In addition, the features of economic cognition and the role of mathematics in economic research are analyzed, including the example of relevant research in game theory and information theory.


2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-240
Author(s):  
Eran Laish

This article focuses on the main contemplative principles of the ‘Heart Essence’ (sNying thig), a Tibetan Buddhist tradition that is characterized by a vision of non-duality and primordial wholeness. Due to this vision, which asserts an original reality that is not divided into perceiving subject and perceived object, the ‘Heart Essence’ advocates a contemplative practice that undermines the usual intuitions of temporality and enclosed selfhood. Hence, unlike the common principles of intentional praxis, such as deliberate concentration and gradual purification, the ‘Heart Essence’ affirms four contemplative principles of non-objectiveness, openness, spontaneity and singleness. As these principles transcend intentionality, temporality, and multiplicity, they are seen to directly disclose the nature of primordial awareness, in which the meanings of knowing and being are radically transformed. Therefore, the article will also consider the role of these non-dual contemplative principles in deeply changing our understanding of being and knowing alike.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (10-3) ◽  
pp. 70-81
Author(s):  
David Ramiro Troitino ◽  
Tanel Kerikmae ◽  
Olga Shumilo

This article highlights the role of Charles de Gaulle in the history of united post-war Europe, his approaches to the internal and foreign French policies, also vetoing the membership of the United Kingdom in the European Community. The authors describe the emergence of De Gaulle as a politician, his uneasy relationship with Roosevelt and Churchill during World War II, also the roots of developing a “nationalistic” approach to regional policy after the end of the war. The article also considers the emergence of the Common Agricultural Policy (hereinafter - CAP), one of Charles de Gaulle’s biggest achievements in foreign policy, and the reasons for the Fouchet Plan defeat.


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