scholarly journals The long-term variability of extreme sea levels in the German Bight

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Lang ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North

Abstract. Extreme high sea levels (ESLs) caused by storm floods constitute a major hazard for coastal regions. We here quantify their long-term variability in the southern German Bight using simulations covering the last 1000 years. To this end, global earth system model simulations from the PMIP3 past1000 project are dynamically scaled down with a regionally coupled climate system model focusing on the North Sea. This approach provides an unprecedented long high-resolution data record that can extend the knowledge of ESL variability based on observations, and allows for the identification of associated large-scale forcing mechanisms in the climate system. While the statistics of simulated ESLs compare well with observations from the tide gauge record at Cuxhaven, we find that simulated ESLs show large variations on interannual to centennial timescales without preferred oscillation periods. As a result of this high internal variability, ESL variations appear to a large extent decoupled from those of the background sea level, and mask any potential signals from solar or volcanic forcing. Comparison with large-scale climate variability shows that periods of high ESL are associated with a sea level pressure dipole between northeastern Scandinavia and the Gulf of Biscay. While this large-scale circulation regime applies to enhanced ESL in the wider region, it differs from the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern that has often been linked to periods of elevated background sea level. The high internal variability with large multidecadal to centennial variations emphasizes the inherent uncertainties related to traditional extreme value estimates based on short data subsets, which fail to account for such long-term variations. We conclude that ESL variations as well as existing estimates of future changes are likely to be dominated by internal variability rather than climate change signals. Thus, larger ensemble simulations will be required to assess future flood risks.

scholarly journals The long-term variability of extreme sea levels in the German Bight

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Lang ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. We investigate the long-term variability of extreme high sea levels (ESL) in the southern German Bight and associated large-scale forcing mechanisms in the climate system using simulations covering the last 1000 years. To this end, global MPI-ESM simulations from the PMIP3 past1000 project are dynamically scaled-down with a regionally coupled climate system model focusing on the North Sea. We find that the statistics of simulated ESL compare well with observations from the tide gauge record at Cuxhaven but show large variations on interannual to centennial timescales. ESL arise independent of preferred systematic oscillations and are to a large extent decoupled from variations of the background sea level (BSL). Large scale circulation regimes associated with periods of high ESL are regionally consistent and similar to those associated with elevated BSL, but the location of the respective centers of action of the governing sea level pressure (SLP) dipole differs. While BSL variations correlate well with the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), ESL variations are rather associated with a dipole between northeastern Scandinavia and the Gulf of Biscay, leading to a stronger local north-westerly wind component in the North Sea. Potential links with solar or volcanic forcing are masked due to the high ESL variability. The high internal variability stresses the irreducible uncertainties related to traditional extreme value estimates based on shorter subsets which fail to account for long-term variations. Existing estimates of future changes in ESL may be dominated by natural variability rather than climate change signals, thus requiring larger ensemble simulations to assess future flood risks.

scholarly journals Mean Sea Level Variability and Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Long-Term Trends in the German Bight

Water ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
Hartmut Hein ◽  
Jürgen Jensen ◽  
Stephan Mai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Mean Sea Level Variability

scholarly journals Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (51) ◽  
pp. 12944-12949 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
R. Steven Nerem
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Community Earth System Model

The satellite altimeter record has provided an unprecedented database for understanding sea-level rise and has recently reached a major milestone at 25 years in length. A challenge now exists in understanding its broader significance and its consequences for sea-level rise in the coming decades and beyond. A key question is whether the pattern of altimeter-era change is representative of longer-term trends driven by anthropogenic forcing. In this work, two multimember climate ensembles, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Earth System Model Version 2M (ESM2M), are used to estimate patterns of forced change [also known as the forced response (FR)] and their magnitudes relative to internal variability. It is found that the spatial patterns of 1993–2018 trends in the ensembles correlate significantly with the contemporaneous FRs (0.55 ± 0.10 in the CESM and 0.61 ± 0.09 in the ESM2M) and the 1950–2100 FRs (0.43 ± 0.10 in the CESM and 0.51 ± 0.11 in the ESM2M). Unforced runs for each model show such correlations to be extremely unlikely to have arisen by chance, indicating an emergence of both the altimeter-era and long-term FRs and suggesting a similar emergence in nature. Projected patterns of the FR over the coming decades resemble those simulated during the altimeter era, suggesting a continuation of the forced pattern of change in nature in the coming decades. Notably, elevated rates of rise are projected to continue in regions that are susceptible to tropical cyclones, exacerbating associated impacts in a warming climate.

Mean Sea Level as a Reference for Geodetic Leveling

1974 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 524-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. W. Lennon
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Equipotential Surface ◽  
Scientific Discipline ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Marine System

The use of mean sea level as a surface of reference that might provide an independent control for geodetic leveling has been a long term goal arising from the classical analogy between the geoid as an equipotential surface and the surface assumed by a hypothetical undisturbed world ocean. The problems associated with this aim are now known to be vast, and are associated with the dynamics of the marine system, notably its response to meteorological forces, to variations in density and to the effects of basic circulation patterns. In consequence the mean sea level surface varies rapidly in both time and space. This identifies in fact a distinctive scientific discipline, coastal geodesy, in which contributions are required by both geodesists and oceanographers. It has come to be recognized that the coastal zone is a hazardous environment for all observational techniques concerned. On the one hand, the difficulties of measurement of coastal sea levels have only recently been understood; on the other hand, precise leveling procedures are now known to be influenced by the attraction of marine tides and by crustal deformation of tidal loading. Much of the data available for study are therefore inadequate and, moreover, it should be noted that long-time series are required. It is now possible to lay plans for both geodetic and oceanographic procedures to remedy these deficiencies in the long-term interests of the study.

Revising key parameters for long-term carbon cycle models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chloé M. Marcilly ◽  
Trond H. Torsvik ◽  
Mathew Domeier ◽  
Dana L. Royer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Silicate Weathering ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Climate Gradients ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>CO<sub>2</sub> is the most important greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere and has fluctuated considerably over geological time. However, proxies for past CO<sub>2 </sub>concentrations have large uncertainties and are mostly limited to Devonian and younger times. Consequently, CO<sub>2</sub> modelling plays a key role in reconstructing past climate fluctuations. Facing the limitations with the current CO<sub>2</sub> models, we aim to refine two important forcings for CO<sub>2</sub> levels over the Phanerozoic, namely carbon degassing and silicate weathering.</p><p>Silicate weathering and carbonate deposition is widely recognized as a primary sink of carbon on geological timescales and is largely influenced by changes in climate, which in turn is linked to changes in paleogeography. The role of paleogeography on silicate weathering fluxes has been the focus of several studies in recent years. Their aims were mostly to constrain climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation affecting weathering rates through time. However, constraining the availability of exposed land is crucial in assessing the theoretical amount of weathering on geological time scales. Associated with changes in climatic zones, the fluctuation of sea-level is critical for defining the amount of land exposed to weathering. The current reconstructions used in<sub></sub>models tend to overestimate the amount of exposed land to weathering at periods with high sea levels. Through the construction of continental flooding maps, we constrain the effective land area undergoing silicate weathering for the past 520 million years. Our maps not only reflect sea-level fluctuations but also contain climate-sensitive indicators such as coal (since the Early Devonian) and evaporites to evaluate climate gradients and potential weatherablity through time. This is particularly important after the Pangea supercontinent formed but also for some time after its break-up.</p><p>Whilst silicate weathering is an important CO<sub>2</sub> sink, volcanic carbon degassing is a major source but one of the least constrained climate forcing parameters. There is no clear consensus on the history of degassing through geological time as there are no direct proxies for reconstructing carbon degassing, but various proxy methods have been postulated. We propose new estimates of plate tectonic degassing for the Phanerozoic using both subduction flux from full-plate models and zircon age distribution from arcs (arc-activity) as proxies.</p><p>The effect of revised modelling parameters for weathering and degassing was tested in the well-known long-term models GEOCARBSULF and COPSE. They revealed the high influence of degassing on CO<sub>2</sub> levels using those models, highlighting the need for enhanced research in this direction. The use of arc-activity as a proxy for carbon degassing leads to interesting responses in the Mesozoic and brings model estimates closer to CO<sub>2 </sub> proxy values. However, from simulations using simultaneously the revised input parameters (i.e weathering and degassing) large model-proxy discrepancies remain and notably for the Triassic and Jurassic.</p><p> </p>

What can idealized storm surge simulations tell us about worst case scenarios?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elin Andrée ◽  
Jian Su ◽  
Martin Drews ◽  
Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen ◽  
Asger Bendix Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sea Coast ◽  
North Sea Coast

<p>The potential impacts of extreme sea level events are becoming more apparent to the public and policy makers alike. As the magnitude of these events are expected to increase due to climate change, and increased coastal urbanization results in ever increasing stakes in the coastal zones, the need for risk assessments is growing too.</p><p>The physical conditions that generate extreme sea levels are highly dependent on site specific conditions, such as bathymetry, tidal regime, wind fetch and the shape of the coastline. For a low-lying country like Denmark, which consists of a peninsula and islands that partition off the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea from the North Sea, a better understanding of how the local sea level responds to wind forcing is urgently called for.</p><p>We here present a map for Denmark that shows the most efficient wind directions for generating extreme sea levels, for a total of 70 locations distributed all over the country’s coastlines. The maps are produced by conducting simulations with a high resolution, 3D-ocean model, which is used for operational storm surge modelling at the Danish Meteorological Institute. We force the model with idealized wind fields that maintain a fixed wind speed and wind direction over the entire model domain. Simulations are conducted for one wind speed and one wind direction at a time, generating ensembles of a set of wind directions for a fixed wind speed, as well as a set of wind speeds for a fixed wind direction, respectively.</p><p>For each wind direction, we find that the maximum water level at a given location increases linearly with the wind speed, and the slope values show clear spatial patterns, for example distinguishing the Danish southern North Sea coast from the central or northern North Sea Coast. The slope values are highest along the southwestern North Sea coast, where the passage of North Atlantic low pressure systems over the shallow North Sea, as well as the large tidal range, result in a much larger range of variability than in the more sheltered Inner Danish Waters. However, in our simulations the large fetch of the Baltic Sea, in combination with the funneling effect of the Danish Straits, result in almost as high water levels as along the North Sea coast.</p><p>Although the wind forcing is completely synthetic with no spatial and temporal structure of a real storm, this idealized approach allows us to systematically investigate the sea level response at the boundaries of what is physically plausible. We evaluate the results from these simulations by comparison to peak water levels from a 58 year long, high resolution ocean hindcast, with promising agreement.</p>

High Stands of Holocene Sea Levels in the Northwest Pacific

1978 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo A. Pirazzoli
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Outer Zone ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
The Sea Of Japan ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
The Japanese Archipelago

Evidence of Holocene sea levels higher than the present level have often been reported from the Northwest Pacific. Eustatic interpretations have been propounded, but age and level of the maximum transgression vary with each new analysis. In this investigation, after an inventory of approximately 250 items of data, some of which are new, a tentative synthesis transcending local scale is advanced. The highest levels are reported from Taiwan, where they often reach several tens of meters in altitude. In the Ryûkyûs and in the main islands of the Japanese Archipelago, evidence of recent emergence is found along most of the coasts. Elevation increases towards the oceanic trenches, but former sea levels at above 6 m and even higher may also be recognized along the coasts of the Sea of Japan. In a few areas, such as in the Niigata Plain, marks of Holocene sea levels higher than at present are lacking. On the other hand, in other basins regarded as subsiding, such as those in the Nôbi and the Kantô plains, evidence of recent emergence is quite frequent. In many places, marks of several sea levels indicate that a step-by-step uplift has occurred. All the investigated insular arcs, therefore, seem to be situated in epeirogenic areas formed by several more or less large blocks affected by relative movements. The blocks are larger in the Outer Zone of Southwestern Japan; in the Inner Zone, an intricate network of fault lines marks the boundaries of many smaller independent blocks. During great earthquakes, relative movements of uplift, subsidence, tilting, or undulation occur in one or several blocks, depending on the position of the epicentres. Subsidence, however, must often be simply of a temporary nature, because a long-term uplift trend seems to prevail in most regions, even if it occurs at different rates. This interpretation may explain the cause of the great variety of ages and elevations of the former sea levels (with the oldest ages corresponding to the highest elevations) and the great number of indicators of step-by-step sea-level change. The inference, drawn by several authors, that the Holocene sea level in the Northwest Pacific was higher than at present, is, therefore, reasonable on a local scale, but does not define an eustatic sea level.

Landscape development in western and central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

2001 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens-Ove Näslund
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Continental Margins ◽  
Landscape Development ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Break Up

Large-scale bedrock morphology and relief of two key areas, the Jutulsessen Nunatak and the Jutulstraumen ice stream are used to discuss glascial history and landscape development in western and central Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Two main landform components were identified: well-defined summit plateau surfaces and a typical alpine glacial landscape. The flat, high-elevation plateau surfaces previously were part of one or several continuous regional planation surfaces. In western Dronning Maud Land, overlying cover rocks of late Palaeozoic age show that the planation surface(s) existed in the early Permian, prior to the break-up of Gondwana. A well-develoment escarpment, a mega landform typical for passive continental margins, bounds the palaeosurface remnants to the north for a distance of at least 700 km. The Cenozoic glacial landscape, incised in the palaeosurface and escarpment, is exemplified by Jutulsessen Nunatak, where a c. 1.2 km deep glacial valley system is developed. However, the prominent Penck-Jutul Trough represents some of the deepest dissection of the palaeosurface. This originally tectonic feature is today occupied by the Jutulstraumen ice stream. New topographic data show that the bed of the Penck-Jutul Trough is situated 1.9±1.1 km below sea level, and that the total landscape relief is at least 4.2 km. Today's relief is a result of several processes, including tectonic faulting, subaerial weathering, fluvial erosion, and glacial erosion. It is probable that erosion by ice streams has deepened the tectonic troughs of Dronning Maud Land since the onset of ice sheet glaciation in the Oligocene, and continues today. An attempt is made to identify major events in the long-term landscape development of Dronning Maud Land, since the break-up of the Gondwana continent.

scholarly journals Climate impacts on multidecadal <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 15223-15244
Author(s):  
M. L. Breeden ◽  
G. A. McKinley
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle using a regional model forced with realistic climate and pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948–2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Warming with the positive AMO increases subpolar gyre pCO2, but there is also a significant reduction of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due primarily to reduced vertical mixing. The net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net impacts of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document