Causes of uncertainties in the representation of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in CMIP5 models

Abstract. Open-ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in regions with high biological productivity and weak ventilation. They restrict marine habitats and alter biogeochemical cycles. Global models generally show a large model–data misfit with regard to oxygen. Reliable statements about the future development of OMZs and the quantification of their interaction with climate change are currently not possible. One of the most intense OMZs worldwide is located in the Arabian Sea (AS). We give an overview of the main model deficiencies with a detailed comparison of the historical state of 10 climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that present our present-day understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes. Most of the models show a general underestimation of the OMZ volume in the AS compared to observations that is caused by an overly shallow layer of oxygen-poor water in the models. The deviation of oxygen values in the deep AS is the result of oxygen levels that are too high simulated in the Southern Ocean formation regions of Indian Ocean Deep Water in the models compared to observations and uncertainties in the deepwater mass transport from the Southern Ocean northward into the AS. Differences in simulated water mass properties and ventilation rates of Red Sea Water and Persian Gulf Water cause different mixing in the AS and thus influence the intensity of the OMZ. These differences in ventilation rates also point towards variations in the parameterizations of the overflow from the marginal seas among the models. The results of this study are intended to foster future model improvements regarding the OMZ in the AS.

Download Full-text

Causes of uncertainties in the representation of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in CMIP5 models

10.5194/os-2021-36 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Henrike Schmidt ◽

Julia Getzlaff ◽

Ulrike Löptien ◽

Andreas Oschlies

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Arabian Sea ◽

Climate Models ◽

Water Mass ◽

Sea Water ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Detailed Comparison ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Marine Habitats ◽

Oxygen Minimum

Abstract. Open ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in regions with high biological productivity and weak ventilation. They restrict marine habitats and alter biogeochemical cycles. Global models show generally a large model-data misfit with regard to oxygen. Reliable statements about their future development and the quantification of their interaction with climate change are currently not possible. One of the most intense OMZs is located in the Arabian Sea (AS). We give an overview of the main model deficiencies with a detailed comparison of the historical state of ten climate models from the 5th coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) that present our present-day understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes. Considering a threshold of 60 μmol l−1, we find a general underestimation of the OMZ volume in the AS compared to observations, that is caused by a too shallow layer of oxygen-poor water in the models. The deviation of oxygen values in the deep AS is the result of subduction of higher oxygenated waters in the Southern Ocean in the models compared to observations. In addition, model deficiencies related to the coarse resolution of the abyssal ocean, are identified in the deep water mass transport from the Southern Ocean northward into the AS. Differences in simulated water mass properties and ventilation rates of Red Sea Water and Persian Gulf Water cause different mixing in the AS and thus influence the intensity of the OMZ. These differences also point towards variations in the parametrisations of the overflow from the marginal seas among the models. The results of this study are intended to foster future model improvements regarding the OMZ in the AS.

Download Full-text

Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models*

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00521.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (21) ◽

pp. 8597-8615 ◽

Cited By ~ 128

Author(s):

Alexander Sen Gupta ◽

Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽

Jaclyn N. Brown ◽

Didier Monselesan

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Deep Ocean ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Correction Method ◽

Physical Models ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Steric Sea Level ◽

Biogeochemical Models ◽

The Difference

Abstract Climate models often exhibit spurious long-term changes independent of either internal variability or changes to external forcing. Such changes, referred to as model “drift,” may distort the estimate of forced change in transient climate simulations. The importance of drift is examined in comparison to historical trends over recent decades in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Comparison based on a selection of metrics suggests a significant overall reduction in the magnitude of drift from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) to phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The direction of both ocean and atmospheric drift is systematically biased in some models introducing statistically significant drift in globally averaged metrics. Nevertheless, for most models globally averaged drift remains weak compared to the associated forced trends and is often smaller than the difference between trends derived from different ensemble members or the error introduced by the aliasing of natural variability. An exception to this is metrics that include the deep ocean (e.g., steric sea level) where drift can dominate in forced simulations. In such circumstances drift must be corrected for using information from concurrent control experiments. Many CMIP5 models now include ocean biogeochemistry. Like physical models, biogeochemical models generally undergo long spinup integrations to minimize drift. Nevertheless, based on a limited subset of models, it is found that drift is an important consideration and must be accounted for. For properties or regions where drift is important, the drift correction method must be carefully considered. The use of a drift estimate based on the full control time series is recommended to minimize the contamination of the drift estimate by internal variability.

Download Full-text

Southern Ocean Wind Stress in CMIP5 Models: Role of Wind Fluctuations

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0466.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (4) ◽

pp. 1209-1226 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Xia Lin ◽

Xiaoming Zhai ◽

Zhaomin Wang ◽

David R. Munday

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Time Scales ◽

Wind Stress ◽

Surface Wind ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Coupled Models ◽

Surface Wind Stress ◽

Stress Changes ◽

The Mean

AbstractThe Southern Ocean (SO) surface wind stress is a major atmospheric forcing for driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the global overturning circulation. Here the effects of wind fluctuations at different time scales on SO wind stress in 18 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are investigated. It is found that including wind fluctuations, especially on time scales associated with synoptic storms, in the stress calculation strongly enhances the mean strength, modulates the seasonal cycle, and significantly amplifies the trends of SO wind stress. In 11 out of the 18 CMIP5 models, the SO wind stress has strengthened significantly over the period of 1960–2005. Among them, the strengthening trend of SO wind stress in one CMIP5 model is due to the increase in the intensity of wind fluctuations, while in all the other 10 models the strengthening trend is due to the increasing strength of the mean westerly wind. These discrepancies in SO wind stress trend in CMIP5 models may explain some of the diverging behaviors in the model-simulated SO circulation. Our results suggest that to reduce the uncertainty in SO responses to wind stress changes in the coupled models, both the mean wind and wind fluctuations need to be better simulated.

Download Full-text

CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00589.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (13) ◽

pp. 5254-5271 ◽

Cited By ~ 112

Author(s):

Elizabeth A. Barnes ◽

Lorenzo M. Polvani

Keyword(s):

North Atlantic ◽

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Arctic Region ◽

The Arctic ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Arctic Amplification ◽

Arctic Warming ◽

The North ◽

Sequence Of Events

Abstract Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized.

Download Full-text

Analysis of Groundwater and Total Water Storage Changes in Poland Using GRACE Observations, In-situ Data, and Various Assimilation and Climate Models

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11242949 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 2949 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Justyna Śliwińska ◽

Monika Birylo ◽

Zofia Rzepecka ◽

Jolanta Nastula

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Water Storage ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Climate Data ◽

Total Water ◽

In Situ Data ◽

Grace Data ◽

Land Data Assimilation System

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations have provided global observations of total water storage (TWS) changes at monthly intervals for over 15 years, which can be useful for estimating changes in GWS after extracting other water storage components. In this study, we analyzed the TWS and groundwater storage (GWS) variations of the main Polish basins, the Vistula and the Odra, using GRACE observations, in-situ data, GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) hydrological models, and CMIP5 (the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate data. The research was conducted for the period between September 2006 and October 2015. The TWS data were taken directly from GRACE measurements and also computed from four GLDAS (VIC, CLM, MOSAIC, and NOAH) and six CMIP5 (FGOALS-g2, GFDL-ESM2G, GISS-E2-H, inmcm4, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR) models. The GWS data were obtained by subtracting the model TWS from the GRACE TWS. The resulting GWS values were compared with in-situ well measurements calibrated using porosity coefficients. For each time series, the trends, spectra, amplitudes, and seasonal components were computed and analyzed. The results suggest that in Poland there has been generally no major TWS or GWS depletion. Our results indicate that when comparing TWS values, better compliance with GRACE data was obtained for GLDAS than for CMIP5 models. However, the GWS analysis showed better consistency of climate models with the well results. The results can contribute toward selection of an appropriate model that, in combination with global GRACE observations, would provide information on groundwater changes in regions with limited or inaccurate ground measurements.

Download Full-text

The Double-ITCZ Bias in CMIP6 Models

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21375 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Baijun Tian

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Tropical Precipitation ◽

Double Itcz ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Fully Coupled

<p>The double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias is one of the most outstanding problems in climate models. This study seeks to examine the double-ITCZ bias in the latest state-of-the-art fully coupled global climate models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6) in comparison to their previous generations (CMIP3 and CMIP5 models). To that end, we have analyzed the long-term annual mean tropical precipitation distributions and several precipitation bias indices that quantify the double-ITCZ biases in 75 climate models including 24 CMIP3 models, 25 CMIP3 models, and 26 CMIP6 models. We find that the double-ITCZ bias and its big inter-model spread persist in CMIP6 models but the double-ITCZ bias is slightly reduced from CMIP3 or CMIP5 models to CMIP6 models.</p>

Download Full-text

Improved Simulation of Regional Climate by Global Models with Higher Resolution: Skill Scores Correlated with Grid Length*

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00702.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (15) ◽

pp. 5985-6000 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

I. G. Watterson

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Skill Score ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Four Seasons ◽

Skill Scores ◽

Resolution Model ◽

High Resolution Model ◽

Grid Length

Abstract The current generation of climate models, as represented by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), has previously been assessed as having more skill in simulating the observed climate than the previous ensemble from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). Furthermore, the skill of models in reproducing seasonal means of precipitation, temperature, and pressure from two observational datasets, quantified by the nondimensional Arcsin–Mielke skill score, appeared to be influenced by model resolution. The analysis is extended to 42 CMIP5 and 24 CMIP3 models. For the combined skill scores for six continents, averaged over the three variables and four seasons, the correlation with model grid length in the 66-model ensemble is −0.73. Focusing on the comparison with ERA-Interim data at higher resolution and with greater regional detail, correlations are nearly as strong for scores over the ocean domain as for land. For the global domain (excluding the Antarctic cap), the correlation of the overall skill score with grid length is −0.61, and it is nearly as strong for each variable. For most tests the improved averaged score of CMIP5 models relative to those from CMIP3 is largely consistent with their increased resolution. However, the improvement for precipitation and the correlations with length are both smaller if rmse is used as a metric. They are smaller again using the GPCP observational data, as the regional detail from a high-resolution model can lead to larger differences when compared to relatively smooth observational fields.

Download Full-text

Reexamining the Relationship between Climate Sensitivity and the Southern Hemisphere Radiation Budget in CMIP Models

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-15-0031.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (23) ◽

pp. 9298-9312 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Kevin M. Grise ◽

Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽

John T. Fasullo

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Radiation Budget ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Net Radiation ◽

Subtropical Clouds

Abstract Recent efforts to narrow the spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models have focused on identifying observationally based constraints, which are rooted in empirical correlations between ECS and biases in the models’ present-day climate. This study reexamines one such constraint identified from CMIP3 models: the linkage between ECS and net top-of-the-atmosphere radiation biases in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). As previously documented, the intermodel spread in the ECS of CMIP3 models is linked to present-day cloud and net radiation biases over the midlatitude Southern Ocean, where higher cloud fraction in the present-day climate is associated with larger values of ECS. However, in this study, no physical explanation is found to support this relationship. Furthermore, it is shown here that this relationship disappears in CMIP5 models and is unique to a subset of CMIP models characterized by unrealistically bright present-day clouds in the SH subtropics. In view of this evidence, Southern Ocean cloud and net radiation biases appear inappropriate for providing observationally based constraints on ECS. Instead of the Southern Ocean, this study points to the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regions of the SH subtropical oceans as key to explaining the intermodel spread in the ECS of both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. In these regions, ECS is linked to present-day cloud and net radiation biases with a plausible physical mechanism: models with brighter subtropical clouds in the present-day climate show greater ECS because 1) subtropical clouds dissipate with increasing CO2 concentrations in many models and 2) the dissipation of brighter clouds contributes to greater solar warming of the surface.

Download Full-text

On the Climate Sensitivity and Historical Warming Evolution in Recent Coupled Model Ensembles

10.5194/acp-2019-1175 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Clare Marie Flynn ◽

Thorsten Mauritsen

Keyword(s):

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Future Warming ◽

Model Treatment ◽

Systematic Shift ◽

Model Ensembles

Abstract. The Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, along with the transient 35 climate response (TCR) and greenhouse gas emissions pathways, determines the amount of future warming. Coupled climate models have in the past been important tools to estimate and understand ECS. ECS estimated from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models lies between 2.0 and 4.7 K (mean of 3.2 K), whereas in the latest CMIP6 the spread has increased: 1.8–5.5 K (mean of 3.7 K), with 5 out of 25 models exceeding 5 K. It is thus pertinent to understand the causes underlying this shift. Here we compare the CMIP5 and CMIP6 model ensembles, and find a systematic shift between CMIP eras to be unexplained as a process of random sampling from modeled forcing and feedback distributions. Instead, shortwave feedbacks shift towards more positive values, in particular over the Southern Ocean, driving the shift towards larger ECS values in many of the models. These results suggest that changes in model treatment of mixed-phase cloud processes and changes to Antarctic sea ice representation are likely causes of the shift towards larger ECS. Somewhat surprisingly, CMIP6 models exhibit less historical warming than CMIP5 models; the evolution of the warming suggests, however, that several of the models apply too strong aerosol cooling resulting in too weak mid 20th Century warming compared to the instrumental record.

Download Full-text

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (16) ◽

pp. 9591-9618 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Christopher J. Smith ◽

Ryan J. Kramer ◽

Gunnar Myhre ◽

Kari Alterskjær ◽

William Collins ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

Download Full-text