scholarly journals Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr solar cycle

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Scafetta ◽  
R. C. Willson
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence

scholarly journals A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1879-1909 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Roth ◽  
F. Joos
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Production Model ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Modulation ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Instrumental Data ◽  
The Holocene

Abstract. Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Solar Irradiance: Instrument-Based Advances

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (A30) ◽  
pp. 354-357
Author(s):  
Greg Kopp
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Climate Stability ◽  
Measurement Results ◽  
Measuring Space

AbstractVariations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) over long periods of time provide natural Earth-climate forcing and are thus important to monitor. Variations over a solar cycle are at the 0.1 % level. Variations on multi-decadal to century timescales are (fortunately for our climate stability) very small, which drives the need for highly-accurate and stable measurements over correspondingly long periods of time to discern any such irradiance changes. Advances to TSI-measuring space-borne instruments are approaching the desired climate-driven measurement accuracies and on-orbit stabilities. I present a summary of the modern-instrument improvements enabling these measurements and present some of the solar-variability measurement results from recent space-borne instruments, including TSI variations on timescales from solar flares and large-scale convection to solar cycles.

Variations in total solar irradiance during solar cycle 22

1996 ◽  
Vol 101 (A6) ◽  
pp. 13541-13548 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Chapman ◽  
A. M. Cookson ◽  
J. J. Dobias
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance

scholarly journals The Total Solar Irradiance, UV Emission and Magnetic Flux during the Last Solar Cycle Minimum

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. E. Benevolenskaya ◽  
I. G. Kostuchenko
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Magnetic Flux ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Sunspot Activity ◽  
Ultraviolet Emission ◽  
Uv Emission ◽  
Surface Rotation ◽  
Spectral Solar Irradiance

We have analyzed the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the spectral solar irradiance as ultraviolet emission (UV) in the wavelength range 115–180 nm, observed with the instruments TIM and SOLSTICE within the framework of SORCE (the solar radiation and climate experiment) during the long solar minimum between the 23rd and 24th cycles. The wavelet analysis reveals an increase in the magnetic flux in the latitudinal zone of the sunspot activity, accompanied with an increase in the TSI and UV on the surface rotation timescales of solar activity complexes. In-phase coherent structures between the midlatitude magnetic flux and TSI/UV appear when the long-lived complexes of the solar activity are present. These complexes, which are related to long-lived sources of magnetic fields under the photosphere, are maintained by magnetic fluxes reappearing in the same longitudinal regions. During the deep solar minimum (the period of the absence of sunspots), a coherent structure has been found, in which the phase between the integrated midlatitude magnetic flux is ahead of the total solar irradiance on the timescales of the surface rotation.

scholarly journals Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

2017 ◽  
Vol 844 (1) ◽  
pp. 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudip Mandal ◽  
Subhamoy Chatterjee ◽  
Dipankar Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance

Some thoughts on Sun—weather relations

1990 ◽  
Vol 330 (1615) ◽  
pp. 543-545 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Greenhouse Warming

Recent measurements of variations in the total solar irradiance now offer a quantitative mechanism through which year-to-year changes in solar activity may influence surface temperature. It follows that at least a part of the global warming of the last century could be ascribed to changes in solar output, and that effects of solar radiative forcing may need to be taken into account in predictions of greenhouse warming. A number of questions still remain, however, before this thesis rests on a firm foundation.

scholarly journals Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (S286) ◽  
pp. 215-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene V. Rozanov ◽  
Tatiana A. Egorova ◽  
Alexander I. Shapiro ◽  
Werner K. Schmutz
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Geographical Regions

AbstractWe estimate the consequences of a potential strong decrease of the solar activity using the model simulations of the future driven by pure anthropogenic forcing as well as its combination with different solar activity related factors: total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance, energetic electron precipitation, solar protons and galactic cosmic rays. The comparison of the model simulations shows that introduced strong decrease of solar activity can lead to some delay of the ozone recovery and partially compensate greenhouse warming acting in the direction opposite to anthropogenic effects. The model results also show that all considered solar forcings are important in different atmospheric layers and geographical regions. However, in the global scale the solar irradiance variability can be considered as the most important solar forcing. The obtained results constitute probably the upper limit of the possible solar influence. Development of the better constrained set of future solar forcings is necessary to address the problem of future climate and ozone layer with more confidence.

scholarly journals A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene <sup>14</sup>C and CO<sub>2</sub> records: implications of data and model uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1165-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Roth ◽  
F. Joos
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Modulation ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Instrumental Data ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Past atmospheric CO2 concentrations reconstructed from polar ice cores combined with its Δ14C signature as conserved in tree-rings provide important information both on the cycling of carbon as well as the production of radiocarbon (Q) in the atmosphere. The latter is modulated by changes in the strength of the magnetic field enclosed in the solar wind and is a proxy for past changes in solar activity. We perform transient carbon-cycle simulations spanning the past 21 kyr using Bern3D-LPX, a fully featured Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) with a 3-D ocean, sediment and a dynamic vegetation model. Using the latest atmospheric IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon records, we reconstruct the Holocene radiocarbon fluxes and the total production rate. Our carbon-cycle based modern estimate of Q ≈ 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported by Masarik and Beer (2009) and more in line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). Q is then translated into the solar modulation potential (Φ) using the latest geomagnetic field reconstruction and linked to a recent reanalysis of early instrumental data. In contrast to earlier reconstructions, our record suggests that periods of high solar activity (>600 MeV) were quite common not only in recent millennia but throughout the Holocene. Solar activity in our decadally-smoothed record is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average of 650 MeV during the past 9 ka. But due to considerable uncertainties in the normalization of Φ to instrumental data, the absolute value of Φ remains weakly constrained. Further, our simulations with a spatially resolved model (taking the interhemispheric Δ14C gradient into account) show that reconstructions that rely on the Northern Hemisphere 14C record only are biased towards low values during the Holocene. Notable deviations on decadal-to-centennial time scales are also found in comparison with earlier reconstructions. In a last step, past total solar irradiance (TSI) is quantified using a recently published Φ-TSI relationship yielding small changes in Holocene TSI of order 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.17 W m−2. Future extension of TSI using autoregressive modeling suggest a declining solar activity in the next decades towards average Holocene conditions. Past TSI changes are finally translated into changes in surfaces atmospheric temperature (SAT) by forcing the Bern3D-LPX model with our new TSI record, yielding SAT anomalies of less than 0.1 K.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Temperature and Radiative Forcing Response to 11-Year Solar Cycle Changes in Irradiance and Ozone

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 2402-2417 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. Gray ◽  
S. T. Rumbold ◽  
K. P. Shine
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Simple Scaling ◽  
Microwave Sounding ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Spectrally Resolved

Abstract The 11-yr solar cycle temperature response to spectrally resolved solar irradiance changes and associated ozone changes is calculated using a fixed dynamical heating (FDH) model. Imposed ozone changes are from satellite observations, in contrast to some earlier studies. A maximum of 1.6 K is found in the equatorial upper stratosphere and a secondary maximum of 0.4 K in the equatorial lower stratosphere, forming a double peak in the vertical. The upper maximum is primarily due to the irradiance changes while the lower maximum is due to the imposed ozone changes. The results compare well with analyses using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP/NCAR datasets. The equatorial lower stratospheric structure is reproduced even though, by definition, the FDH calculations exclude dynamically driven temperature changes, suggesting an important role for an indirect dynamical effect through ozone redistribution. The results also suggest that differences between the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU)/Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and ERA-40 estimates of the solar cycle signal can be explained by the poor vertical resolution of the SSU/MSU measurements. The adjusted radiative forcing of climate change is also investigated. The forcing due to irradiance changes was 0.14 W m−2, which is only 78% of the value obtained by employing the standard method of simple scaling of the total solar irradiance (TSI) change. The difference arises because much of the change in TSI is at wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly. The forcing due to the ozone change was only 0.004 W m−2 owing to strong compensation between negative shortwave and positive longwave forcings.

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