Diagnosing the decline in climatic mass balance of glaciers in Svalbard over 1957–2014
Abstract. Longterm mass balance of all glaciers of the high Arctic Svalbard archipelago is difficult to achieve due to spatial and temporal incompleteness of geodetic and direct glaciological measurements. To close these gaps, we use a coupled surface energy balance and snow pack model to analyze Svalbard glacier mass changes and its evolution for the period 1957–2014. The model is forced by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data downscaled to 1 km resolution. Model validation is based on measured snow/firn temperature and density, mass balance from stakes and ice cores, meteorological measurements, snow depths from radar profiles and remotely sensed surface albedo and skin temperatures. Overall model performance is good, but varies regionally. Over the entire period the model yields a climatic mass balance of 8.2 cm w.e. yr−1 which correspond to a mass surplus (excluding frontal ablation) of 175 Gt. Climatic mass balance has a linear trend of −1.4 ± 0.4 cm w.e. yr−2 with a shift from a positive to negative regime around 1980. Modeled mass balance exhibit large interannual variability, which is controlled by summer temperatures and further amplified by albedo feedback. For the period 2004–2013 climatic mass balance was −21 cm w.e. yr−1, and accounting for frontal ablation estimated by Błaszczyk et al. (2009) yields a total Svalbard mass balance of −39 cm w.e. yr−1 for this 10 year period. In terms of eustatic sea level, this corresponds to a rise of 0.037 mm yr−1. Refreezing of water in snow and firn is substantial at 22 cm w.e. yr−1, or 26 % of the accumulation. However, as warming lead to reduced firn area over the period, refreezing decrease both absolutely and relative to the mass budget. Negative mass balance and elevated equilibrium lines result in a massive loss of the thick firn (> 2 m) extent and an increase of the superimposed ice, thin firn (