scholarly journals Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Rolph ◽  
Andrew R. Mahoney ◽  
John Walsh ◽  
Philip A. Loring
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Subsistence Hunting ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. It is often remarked that Arctic coastal communities are on the frontlines of the impacts related to the rapidly diminishing ice pack. These impacts can have direct effects on communities, such as reduced access to subsistence hunting species, or increased wave height and coastal erosion. There are also indirect effects driven by external socioeconomic systems, such as increased maritime activity, which may provide local economic benefits while increasing potential for disruption to subsistence activities. Here, we use the Historical Sea Ice Atlas (HSIA) dataset to assess the potential direct and indirect impacts from sea ice change for selected Alaska communities. The HSIA provides sea ice concentration for the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas on a 0.25-degree grid for the period 1953–2013. We estimate the timing of freeze-up and break-up, which is reported by local residents to be of critical importance for subsistence hunting activities and food security. We calculate the open water season length and extend the existing timeseries of the Barnett Severity Index (BSI), which assesses the impact of ice conditions on maritime traffic destined for the Beaufort Sea. We find consistent trends toward later freeze-up and earlier break-up, leading to a lengthened open water period. In Utqiavik (formerly Barrow), there is evidence of a navigational regime change in the 1990s when the pack ice edge started to routinely retreat beyond this most northern community.

scholarly journals The impact of melt ponds on summertime microwave brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kern ◽  
A. Rösel ◽  
L. T. Pedersen ◽  
N. Ivanova ◽  
R. Saldo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Water Fraction ◽  
Microwave Brightness Temperature ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Melt Ponds ◽  
Retrieval Algorithms ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The sea ice concentration (SIC) derived from satellite microwave brightness temperature (TB) data are known to be less accurate during summer melt conditions – in the Arctic Ocean primarily because of the impact of melt ponds on sea ice. Using data from June to August 2009, we investigate how TBs and SICs vary as a function of the ice surface fraction (ISF) computed from open water fraction and melt pond fraction both derived from satellite optical reflectance data. SIC is computed from TBs using a set of eight different retrieval algorithms and applying a consistent set of tie points. We find that TB values change during sea ice melt non-linearly and not monotonically as a function of ISF for ISF of 50 to 100 %. For derived parameters such as the polarization ratio at 19 GHz the change is monotonic but substantially smaller than theoretically expected. Changes in ice/snow radiometric properties during melt also contribute to the TB changes observed; these contributions are functions of frequency and polarization and have the potential to partly counter-balance the impact of changing ISF on the observed TBs. All investigated SIC retrieval algorithms overestimate ISF when using winter tie points. The overestimation varies among the algorithms as a function of ISF such that the SIC retrieval algorithms could be categorized into two different classes. These reveal a different degree of ISF overestimation at high ISF and an opposite development of ISF over-estimation as ISF decreases. For one class, correlations between SIC and ISF are ≥ 0.85 and the associated linear regression lines suggest an exploitable relationship between SIC and ISF if reliable summer sea ice tie points can be established. This study shows that melt ponds are interpreted as open water by the SIC algorithms, while the concentration of ice between the melt ponds is in general being overestimated. These two effects may cancel each other out and thus produce seemingly correct SIC for the wrong reasons. This cancelling effect will in general only be "correct" at one specific value of MPF. Based on our findings we recommend to not correct SIC algorithms for the impact of melt ponds as this seems to violate physical principles. Users should be aware that the SIC algorithms available at the moment retrieve a combined parameter presented by SIC in winter and ISF in summer.

scholarly journals Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1779-1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Rolph ◽  
Andrew R. Mahoney ◽  
John Walsh ◽  
Philip A. Loring
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Wind Events

Abstract. Using thresholds of physical climate variables developed from community observations, together with two large-scale datasets, we have produced local indices directly relevant to the impacts of a reduced sea ice cover on Alaska coastal communities. The indices include the number of false freeze-ups defined by transient exceedances of ice concentration prior to a corresponding exceedance that persists, false break-ups, timing of freeze-up and break-up, length of the open water duration, number of days when the winds preclude hunting via boat (wind speed threshold exceedances), the number of wind events conducive to geomorphological work or damage to infrastructure from ocean waves, and the number of these wind events with on- and along-shore components promoting water setup along the coastline. We demonstrate how community observations can inform use of large-scale datasets to derive these locally relevant indices. The two primary large-scale datasets are the Historical Sea Ice Atlas for Alaska and the atmospheric output from a regional climate model used to downscale the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. We illustrate the variability and trends of these indices by application to the rural Alaska communities of Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik (previously Barrow), although the same procedure and metrics can be applied to other coastal communities. Over the 1979–2014 time period, there has been a marked increase in the number of combined false freeze-ups and false break-ups as well as the number of days too windy for hunting via boat for all three communities, especially Utqiaġvik. At Utqiaġvik, there has been an approximate tripling of the number of wind events conducive to coastline erosion from 1979 to 2014. We have also found a delay in freeze-up and earlier break-up, leading to a lengthened open water period for all of the communities examined.

scholarly journals Retrieval of Summer Sea Ice Concentration in the Pacific Arctic Ocean from AMSR2 Observations and Numerical Weather Data Using Random Forest Regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2283
Author(s):  
Hyangsun Han ◽  
Sungjae Lee ◽  
Hyun-Cheol Kim ◽  
Miae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Open Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Effects ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ice Concentration

The Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in summer is a key indicator of global climate change and important information for the development of a more economically valuable Northern Sea Route. Passive microwave (PM) sensors have provided information on the SIC since the 1970s by observing the brightness temperature (TB) of sea ice and open water. However, the SIC in the Arctic estimated by operational algorithms for PM observations is very inaccurate in summer because the TB values of sea ice and open water become similar due to atmospheric effects. In this study, we developed a summer SIC retrieval model for the Pacific Arctic Ocean using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) observations and European Reanalysis Agency-5 (ERA-5) reanalysis fields based on Random Forest (RF) regression. SIC values computed from the ice/water maps generated from the Korean Multi-purpose Satellite-5 synthetic aperture radar images from July to September in 2015–2017 were used as a reference dataset. A total of 24 features including the TB values of AMSR2 channels, the ratios of TB values (the polarization ratio and the spectral gradient ratio (GR)), total columnar water vapor (TCWV), wind speed, air temperature at 2 m and 925 hPa, and the 30-day average of the air temperatures from the ERA-5 were used as the input variables for the RF model. The RF model showed greatly superior performance in retrieving summer SIC values in the Pacific Arctic Ocean to the Bootstrap (BT) and Arctic Radiation and Turbulence Interaction STudy (ARTIST) Sea Ice (ASI) algorithms under various atmospheric conditions. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the RF SIC values was 7.89% compared to the reference SIC values. The BT and ASI SIC values had three times greater values of RMSE (20.19% and 21.39%, respectively) than the RF SIC values. The air temperatures at 2 m and 925 hPa and their 30-day averages, which indicate the ice surface melting conditions, as well as the GR using the vertically polarized channels at 23 GHz and 18 GHz (GR(23V18V)), TCWV, and GR(36V18V), which accounts for atmospheric water content, were identified as the variables that contributed greatly to the RF model. These important variables allowed the RF model to retrieve unbiased and accurate SIC values by taking into account the changes in TB values of sea ice and open water caused by atmospheric effects.

scholarly journals Seasonally changing contribution of sea ice and snow cover to uncertainty in multi-decadal Eurasian surface air temperature trends based on CESM simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaomin Ding ◽  
Renguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Northern Siberia ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of sea ice and snow changes on surface air temperature (SAT) trends on the multidecadal time scale over the mid- and high-latitudes of Eurasia during boreal autumn, winter and spring based on a 30-member ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A dynamical adjustment method is used to remove the internal component of circulation-induced SAT trends. The leading mode of dynamically adjusted SAT trends is featured by same-sign anomalies extending from northern Europe to central Siberia and to the Russian Far East, respectively, during boreal spring and autumn, and confined to western Siberia during winter. The internally generated component of sea ice concentration trends over the Barents-Kara Seas contributes to the differences in the thermodynamic component of internal SAT trends across the ensemble over adjacent northern Siberia during all the three seasons. The sea ice effect is largest in autumn and smallest in winter. Eurasian snow changes contribute to the spread in dynamically adjusted SAT trends as well around the periphery of snow covered region by modulating surface heat flux changes. The snow effect is identified over northeast Europe-western Siberia in autumn, north of the Caspian Sea in winter, and over eastern Europe-northern Siberia in spring. The effects of sea ice and snow on the SAT trends are realized mainly by modulating upward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes.

scholarly journals An analytical model for wind-driven Arctic summer sea ice drift

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-S. Park ◽  
A. L. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Analytical Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Efficient Calculation ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
Wind Input ◽  
Ice Floes ◽  
Arctic Summer

Abstract. The authors present an analytical model for wind-driven free drift of sea ice that allows for an arbitrary mixture of ice and open water. The model includes an ice–ocean boundary layer with an Ekman spiral, forced by transfers of wind-input momentum both through the sea ice and directly into the open water between the ice floes. The analytical tractability of this model allows efficient calculation of the ice velocity provided that the surface wind field is known and that the ocean geostrophic velocity is relatively weak. The model predicts that variations in the ice thickness or concentration should substantially modify the rotation of the velocity between the 10 m winds, the sea ice, and the ocean. Compared to recent observational data from the first ice-tethered profiler with a velocity sensor (ITP-V), the model is able to capture the dependencies of the ice speed and the wind/ice/ocean turning angles on the wind speed. The model is used to derive responses to intensified southerlies on Arctic summer sea ice concentration, and the results are shown to compare closely with satellite observations.

scholarly journals Cryospheric Impacts of Soviet River Diversion Schemes

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Holt ◽  
P. M. Kelly ◽  
B. S. G. Cherry
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.

scholarly journals Sea-ice edge is more important than closer open water access for foraging Adélie penguins: evidence from two colonies

2020 ◽  
Vol 640 ◽  
pp. 215-230
Author(s):  
C Michelot ◽  
A Kato ◽  
T Raclot ◽  
K Shiomi ◽  
P Goulet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adélie Penguins

Sentinel species, like Adélie penguins, have been used to assess the impact of environmental changes, and their link with sea ice has received considerable attention. Here, we tested if foraging Adélie penguins from 2 colonies in East Antarctica target the distant sea-ice edge or take advantage of closer open waters that are readily available near their colony. We examined the foraging behaviour of penguins during the incubation trips of females in 2016 and males in 2017, using GPS tracking and diet data in view of daily sea-ice data and bathymetry. In 2016-2017, sea-ice cover was extensive during females’ trips but flaw leads and polynyas were close to both study sites. Sea ice receded rapidly during males’ trips in 2017-2018. Despite close open water near both colonies in both years, females and males preferentially targeted the continental slope and the sea-ice edge to forage. In addition, there was no difference in the diet of penguins from both colonies: all penguins fed mostly on Antarctic krill and males also foraged on Antarctic silverfish. Our results highlight the importance of the sea-ice edge for penguins, an area where food abundance is predictable. It is likely that resource availability was not sufficient in closer open water areas at such an early stage in the breeding season. The behaviours displayed by the penguins from both colonies were similar, suggesting a common behaviour across colonies in Terre Adélie, although additional sites would be necessary to confirm this hypothesis.

scholarly journals Brief communication: lack of agreement in remote sensing detection of cyclonic drift caused by Atlantic weather in Antarctic sea ice

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne de Jager ◽  
Marcello Vichi
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Sea-ice extent variability, a measure based on satellite-derived sea ice concentration measurements, has traditionally been used as an essential climate variable to evaluate the impact of climate change on polar regions. However, concentration- based measurements of ice variability do not allow to discriminate the relative contributions made by thermodynamic and dynamic processes, prompting the need to use sea-ice drift products and develop alternative methods to quantify changes in sea ice dynamics that would indicate trends in Antarctic ice characteristics. Here, we present a new method to automate the detection of rotational drift features in Antarctic sea ice at daily timescales using currently available remote sensing ice motion products from EUMETSAT OSI SAF. Results show that there is a large discrepancy in the detection of cyclonic drift features between products, both in terms of intensity and year-to-year distributions, thus diminishing the confidence at which ice drift variability can be further analysed. Product comparisons showed that there was good agreement in detecting anticyclonic drift, and cyclonic drift features were measured to be 1.5–2.2 times more intense than anticyclonic features. The most intense features were detected by the merged product, suggesting that the processing chain used for this product could be injecting additional rotational momentum into the resultant drift vectors. We conclude that it is therefore necessary to better understand why the products lack agreement before further trend analysis of these drift features and their climatic significance can be assessed.

scholarly journals New insight from CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness for sea ice modelling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Schröder ◽  
Danny L. Feltham ◽  
Michel Tsamados ◽  
Andy Ridout ◽  
Rachel Tilling
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Melt Pond ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness are available from the CryoSat-2 (CS2) radar altimetry mission during ice growth seasons since 2010. We derive the sub-grid scale ice thickness distribution (ITD) with respect to 5 ice thickness categories used in a sea ice component (CICE) of climate simulations. This allows us to initialize the ITD in stand-alone simulations with CICE and to verify the simulated cycle of ice thickness. We find that a default CICE simulation strongly underestimates ice thickness, despite reproducing the inter-annual variability of summer sea ice extent. We can identify the underestimation of winter ice growth as being responsible and show that increasing the ice conductive flux for lower temperatures (bubbly brine scheme) and accounting for the loss of drifting snow results in the simulated sea ice growth being more realistic. Sensitivity studies provide insight into the impact of initial and atmospheric conditions and, thus, on the role of positive and negative feedback processes. During summer, atmospheric conditions are responsible for 50 % of September sea ice thickness variability through the positive sea ice and melt pond albedo feedback. However, atmospheric winter conditions have little impact on winter ice growth due to the dominating negative conductive feedback process: the thinner the ice and snow in autumn, the stronger the ice growth in winter. We conclude that the fate of Arctic summer sea ice is largely controlled by atmospheric conditions during the melting season rather than by winter temperature. Our optimal model configuration does not only improve the simulated sea ice thickness, but also summer sea ice concentration, melt pond fraction, and length of the melt season. It is the first time CS2 sea ice thickness data have been applied successfully to improve sea ice model physics.

A cyclone-centered perspective on the drivers of asymmetric patterns in the atmosphere and sea ice during Arctic cyclones

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Robin Clancy ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth ◽  
Marie C. McGraw ◽  
Steven M. Cavallo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cold Core ◽  
East West

AbstractArctic cyclones are an extremely common, year-round phenomenon, with substantial influence on sea ice. However, few studies address the heterogeneity in the spatial patterns in the atmosphere and sea ice during Arctic cyclones. We investigate these spatial patterns by compositing on cyclones from 1985-2016 using a novel, cyclone-centered approach that reveals conditions as functions of bearing and distance from cyclone centers. An axisymmetric, cold core model for the structure of Arctic cyclones has previously been proposed, however, we show that the structure of Arctic cyclones is comparable to those in the mid-latitudes, with cyclonic surface winds, a warm, moist sector to the east of cyclones and a cold, dry sector to the west. There is no consensus on the impact of Arctic cyclones on sea ice, as some studies have shown that Arctic cyclones lead to sea ice growth and others to sea ice loss. Instead, we find that sea ice decreases to the east of Arctic cyclones and increases to the west, with the greatest changes occurring in the marginal ice zone. Using a sea ice model forced with prescribed atmospheric reanalysis, we reveal the relative importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic forcing of Arctic cyclones on sea ice. The dynamic and thermodynamic responses of sea ice concentration to cyclones are comparable in magnitude, however dynamic processes dominate the response of sea ice thickness and are the primary driver of the east-west difference in the sea ice response to cyclones.

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