scholarly journals The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Ananicheva ◽  
A. N. Krenke ◽  
R. G. Barry
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Morphological Structure ◽  
Kamchatka Peninsula ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Glacier System ◽  
Glacier Terminus

Abstract. We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky) mountain ranges, located in the region of the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere at the boundary of Atlantic and Pacific influences – and maritime ones (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to assess the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for the 1950–1990s (baseline period) and ECHAM4 for 2049–2060 (projected period) are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude and glacier terminus altitude level for each glacier system as well as areas and balance components. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, and they were used for prediction of glacier extent versus altitude in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-terminus level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – "linear" and "non-linear". The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–2060. Glaciers in the southern parts of northeastern Siberia and those covering small ranges in Kamchatka will likely disappear under the ECHAM4 scenario; the best preservation of glaciers will be on the highest volcanic peaks of Kamchatka. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.

scholarly journals The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 707-735
Author(s):  
M. D. Ananicheva ◽  
A. N. Krenke ◽  
R. G. Barry
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Morphological Structure ◽  
Kamchatka Peninsula ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Mountain Valley ◽  
Glacier System ◽  
The Stability

Abstract. We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold of Eurasia area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences and maritime (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to asses the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for 1950–90s and ECHAM4 for 2040–2069 are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. Also for selected key glacier systems other models were applied for comparison. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and glacier termini elevation for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, they were used for prediction of the elevation spreading of glaciers in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-termini level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – linear and non-linear. The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of Northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–60. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.

scholarly journals Mountain glaciers of NE Asia in the near future: a projection based on climate-glacier systems' interaction

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Ananicheva ◽  
A. N. Krenke ◽  
E. Hanna
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Morphological Structure ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Glacier System ◽  
Cold Area ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Abstract. In this study we consider contrasting continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences) and maritime (Kamchatka under the Pacific influence) Russian glacier systems. Our purpose is to present a simple method for the projection of change of the main parameters of these glacier systems with climate change. To achieve this aim, we constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological observations for the mid to late 20th century and an ECHAM4 GCM scenario for 2040–2069. The observations and scenario were used for defining the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of the areas covered with glacier ice were determined for present and future states of the glacier systems, taking into account the correlation of the change of the ELA and glacier-termini levels. We also give estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of North-eastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics from the ECHAM4 scenario. Finally, we compare characteristics of the continental and maritime glacier systems stability under conditions of global warming.

scholarly journals Climate reconstruction since the Little Ice Age by modelling Koryto glacier, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (184) ◽  
pp. 125-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoru Yamaguchi ◽  
Renji Naruse ◽  
Takayuki Shiraiwa
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Kamchatka Peninsula ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Tree Ring Data

AbstractBased on the field data at Koryto glacier, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, we constructed a one-dimensional numerical glacier model which fits the behaviour of the glacier. The analysis of meteorological data from the nearby station suggests that the recent rapid retreat of the glacier since the mid-20th century is likely to be due to a decrease in winter precipitation. Using the geographical data of the glacier terminus variations from 1711 to 1930, we reconstructed the fluctuation in the equilibrium-line altitude by means of the glacier model. With summer temperatures inferred from tree-ring data, the model suggests that the winter precipitation from the mid-19th to the early 20th century was about 10% less than that at present. This trend is close to consistent with ice-core results from the nearby ice cap in the central Kamchatka Peninsula.

scholarly journals Relation between the Mass Balance of Western Canadian Mountain Glaciers and Meteorological Data

1988 ◽  
Vol 34 (116) ◽  
pp. 11-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Letréguilly
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Glaciers

AbstractThe mass balance, summer balance, winter balance, and equilibrium-line altitude of three Canadian glaciers (Peyto, Place, and Sentinel Glaciers) are compared with the meteorological records of neighbouring stations for the period 1966—84. While Peyto Glacier’s mass balance is almost entirely related to summer temperature, Sentinel Glacier’s mass balance is mostly controlled by winter precipitation. Place Glacier is influenced by both elements. Statistical reconstructions are presented for the three glaciers, using the best regression equations with the meteorological records since 1938.

scholarly journals Relation between the Mass Balance of Western Canadian Mountain Glaciers and Meteorological Data

1988 ◽  
Vol 34 (116) ◽  
pp. 11-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Letréguilly
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Glaciers

AbstractThe mass balance, summer balance, winter balance, and equilibrium-line altitude of three Canadian glaciers (Peyto, Place, and Sentinel Glaciers) are compared with the meteorological records of neighbouring stations for the period 1966—84. While Peyto Glacier’s mass balance is almost entirely related to summer temperature, Sentinel Glacier’s mass balance is mostly controlled by winter precipitation. Place Glacier is influenced by both elements. Statistical reconstructions are presented for the three glaciers, using the best regression equations with the meteorological records since 1938.

scholarly journals Simulating the effects of mean annual air-temperature changes on permafrost distribution and glacier size: an example from the Upper Engadin, Swiss Alps

1995 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 399-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

Models are developed to simulate changes in permafrost distribution and glacier size in mountain areas. The models exclusively consider equilibrium conditions. As a first application, the simplified assumption is used that one single parameter (mean annual air temperature) is changing. Permafrost distribution patterns are estimated for a test area (Corvatsch-Furtschellas) and for the whole Upper Engadin region (eastern Swiss Alps) using a relation between permafrost occurrence as indicated by BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, potential direct solar radiation and mean annual air temperature. Glacier sizes were assessed in the same region with data from the World Glacier Inventory database. The simulations for the glaciers are based on the assumption that an increase or decrease in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) would lead to a mass-balance change. Model calculations for potential future changes in ELA and mass balance include estimated developments of area, length and volume. Mass changes were also calculated for the time period 1850–1973 on the basis of measured cumulative length change, glacier length and estimated ablation at the glacier terminus. For the time period since 1850, permafrost became inactive or disappeared in about 15% of the area originally underlain by permafrost in the whole Upper Engadin region, and mean annual glacier mass balance was calculated as −0.26 to −0.46 m w.e.a−1 for the larger glaciers in the same area. The estimated loss in glacier volume since 1850 lies between 55% and 66% of the original value. With an assumed increase in mean annual air temperature of +3°C, the area of supposed permafrost occurrence would possibly be reduced by about 65% with respect to present-day conditions and only three glaciers would continue to partially exist.

scholarly journals Prediction of possible changes in glacio-hydrological characteristics under global warming: southeastern Alaska, U.S.A.

1996 ◽  
Vol 42 (142) ◽  
pp. 407-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.V. Davidovich ◽  
M.D. Ananicheva
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Glacier ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Statistical Relationships

Abstract We use the Wetherald and Manabe climate model to predict the response of mountain glaciers to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The response is measured in terms of a change in the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and the glacier terminus altitude (GTA), net accumulation–ablation on these altitudes and the melt runoff for 12 mountain-glacier regions in southeastern Alaska, U.S.A. The methods we use involve extrapolating climate-model temperature fields to a glacier’s location, and empirical–statistical relationships between air temperature and percentage of solid precipitation, and between summer air temperature and ablation and melt runoff. Our study shows that, under global warming, glaciation in southeastern Alaska will not disappear, but mass exchange of glaciers will be more intensive and the ELA value will increase by 300–760 m, depending on the glacier’s distance from the ocean.

scholarly journals The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (71) ◽  
pp. 223-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyun Zhao ◽  
Ran Ding ◽  
John C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Summer Temperatures

AbstractWe estimate all the individual glacier area and volume changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) by 2050 based on Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 4.0, using different methods of assessing sensitivity to summer temperatures driven by a regional climate model and the IPCC A1B radiative forcing scenario. A large range of sea-level rise variation comes from varying equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to summer temperatures. This sensitivity and also the glacier mass-balance gradients with elevation have the largest coefficients of variability (amounting to ~50%) among factors examined. Prescribing ELA sensitivities from energy-balance models produces the highest sea-level rise (9.2 mm, or 0.76% of glacier volume a–1), while the ELA sensitivities estimated from summer temperatures at Chinese meteorological stations and also from 1°x1° gridded temperatures in the Berkeley Earth database produce 3.6 and 3.8 mm, respectively. Different choices of the initial ELA or summer precipitation lead to 15% uncertainties in modelled glacier volume loss. RGI version 4.0 produces 20% lower sea-level rise than version 2.0. More surface mass-balance observations, meteorological data from the glaciated areas, and detailed satellite altimetry data can provide better estimates of sea-level rise in the future.

scholarly journals Climatic drivers of seasonal glacier mass balances: an analysis of 6 decades at Glacier de Sarennes (French Alps)

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 2115-2160
Author(s):  
E. Thibert ◽  
N. Eckert ◽  
C. Vincent
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Main Component ◽  
Snow And Ice

Abstract. Refined temporal signals are extracted from a glacier winter and summer mass balance series recorded at Glacier de Sarennes (French Alps) using variance decomposition. They are related to local and synoptic meteorological data in terms of interannual variability and structured trends. The winter balance has increased by +23% since 1976 due to more precipitation in early and late winter. The summer balance has decreased since 1982 due to a 43% increase in snow and ice melt. A 24-day lengthening of the ablation period – mainly due to longer ice ablation – is the main component in the overall increase in ablation. In addition, the last 25 yr have seen increases in ablation rates of 14 and 10% for snow and ice respectively. A simple degree-day analysis can account for both the snow/ice melt rate rise and the lengthening of the ablation period as a function of higher air temperatures. From the same analysis, the equilibrium line altitude of this 45° North latitude south-facing glacier has sensitivity to temperature of +93 m °C−1 around its mean elevation of 3100 m a.s.l. over 6 decades. The sensitivity of summer balance to temperature is −0.62 m w.e. yr−1 °C−1 for a typical 125-day long ablation season. Finally, the time structure of winter and summer mass balance terms are connected to NAO anomalies. Best correlations are obtained with winter NAO anomalies. However, they strongly depend on how the NAO signal is smoothed, so that the link between mass-balance seasonal terms and NAO signal remains tenuous and hard to interpret.

scholarly journals Simulating the effects of mean annual air-temperature changes on permafrost distribution and glacier size: an example from the Upper Engadin, Swiss Alps

1995 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 399-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

Models are developed to simulate changes in permafrost distribution and glacier size in mountain areas. The models exclusively consider equilibrium conditions. As a first application, the simplified assumption is used that one single parameter (mean annual air temperature) is changing.Permafrost distribution patterns are estimated for a test area (Corvatsch-Furtschellas) and for the whole Upper Engadin region (eastern Swiss Alps) using a relation between permafrost occurrence as indicated by BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, potential direct solar radiation and mean annual air temperature. Glacier sizes were assessed in the same region with data from the World Glacier Inventory database. The simulations for the glaciers are based on the assumption that an increase or decrease in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) would lead to a mass-balance change. Model calculations for potential future changes in ELA and mass balance include estimated developments of area, length and volume. Mass changes were also calculated for the time period 1850–1973 on the basis of measured cumulative length change, glacier length and estimated ablation at the glacier terminus.For the time period since 1850, permafrost became inactive or disappeared in about 15% of the area originally underlain by permafrost in the whole Upper Engadin region, and mean annual glacier mass balance was calculated as −0.26 to −0.46 m w.e.a−1 for the larger glaciers in the same area. The estimated loss in glacier volume since 1850 lies between 55% and 66% of the original value. With an assumed increase in mean annual air temperature of +3°C, the area of supposed permafrost occurrence would possibly be reduced by about 65% with respect to present-day conditions and only three glaciers would continue to partially exist.

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