Mountain glaciers of NE Asia in the near future: a projection based on climate-glacier systems' interaction

Abstract. In this study we consider contrasting continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences) and maritime (Kamchatka under the Pacific influence) Russian glacier systems. Our purpose is to present a simple method for the projection of change of the main parameters of these glacier systems with climate change. To achieve this aim, we constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological observations for the mid to late 20th century and an ECHAM4 GCM scenario for 2040–2069. The observations and scenario were used for defining the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of the areas covered with glacier ice were determined for present and future states of the glacier systems, taking into account the correlation of the change of the ELA and glacier-termini levels. We also give estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of North-eastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics from the ECHAM4 scenario. Finally, we compare characteristics of the continental and maritime glacier systems stability under conditions of global warming.

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The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-4-435-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 435-445 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

M. D. Ananicheva ◽

A. N. Krenke ◽

R. G. Barry

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Northeast Asia ◽

Morphological Structure ◽

Kamchatka Peninsula ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Glacier System ◽

Glacier Terminus

Abstract. We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky) mountain ranges, located in the region of the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere at the boundary of Atlantic and Pacific influences – and maritime ones (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to assess the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for the 1950–1990s (baseline period) and ECHAM4 for 2049–2060 (projected period) are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude and glacier terminus altitude level for each glacier system as well as areas and balance components. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, and they were used for prediction of glacier extent versus altitude in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-terminus level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – "linear" and "non-linear". The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–2060. Glaciers in the southern parts of northeastern Siberia and those covering small ranges in Kamchatka will likely disappear under the ECHAM4 scenario; the best preservation of glaciers will be on the highest volcanic peaks of Kamchatka. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.

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The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-4-707-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 707-735

Author(s):

M. D. Ananicheva ◽

A. N. Krenke ◽

R. G. Barry

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Northeast Asia ◽

Morphological Structure ◽

Kamchatka Peninsula ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Mountain Valley ◽

Glacier System ◽

The Stability

Abstract. We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold of Eurasia area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences and maritime (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to asses the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for 1950–90s and ECHAM4 for 2040–2069 are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. Also for selected key glacier systems other models were applied for comparison. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and glacier termini elevation for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, they were used for prediction of the elevation spreading of glaciers in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-termini level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – linear and non-linear. The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of Northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–60. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.

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Preliminary results of mass-balance observations of Yala Glacier and analysis of temperature and precipitation gradients in Langtang Valley, Nepal

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2014aog66a106 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 55 (66) ◽

pp. 9-14 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Prashant Baral ◽

Rijan B. Kayastha ◽

Walter W. Immerzeel ◽

Niraj S. Pradhananga ◽

Bikas C. Bhattarai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Lapse Rate ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

The Impact ◽

Langtang Valley

AbstractMonitoring the glacier mass balance of summer-accumulation-type Himalayan glaciers is critical to not only assess the impact of climate change on the volume of such glaciers but also predict the downstream water availability and the global sea-level change in future. To better understand the change in meteorological parameters related to glacier mass balance and runoff in a glacierized basin and to assess the highly heterogeneous glacier responses to climate change in the Nepal Himalaya and nearby ranges, the Cryosphere Monitoring Project (CMP) carries out meteorological observations in Langtang Valley and mass-balance measurements on Yala Glacier, a debris-free glacier in the same valley. A negative annual mass balance of –0.89m w.e. and the rising equilibrium-line altitude of Yala Glacier indicate a continuation of a secular trend toward more negative mass balances. Lower temperature lapse rate during the monsoon, the effect of convective precipitation associated with mesoscale thermal circulation in the local precipitation and the occurrence of distinct diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation at different stations in the valley are other conclusions of this comprehensive scientific study initiated by CMP which aims to yield multi-year glaciological, hydrological and meteorological observations in the glacierized Langtang River basin.

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What glaciers are telling us about Earth's changing climate

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-3475-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 3475-3491

Author(s):

W. Tangborn ◽

M. Mosteller

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Balance Model ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Established Relationship ◽

Representative Selection ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

Glacier Ablation ◽

The Impact ◽

Selection Of

Abstract. A glacier monitoring system has been developed to systematically observe and document changes in the size and extent of a representative selection of the world's 160 000 mountain glaciers (entitled the PTAAGMB Project). Its purpose is to assess the impact of climate change on human societies by applying an established relationship between glacier ablation and global temperatures. Two sub-systems were developed to accomplish this goal: (1) a mass balance model that produces daily and annual glacier balances using routine meteorological observations, (2) a program that uses Google Maps to display satellite images of glaciers and the graphical results produced by the glacier balance model. The recently developed PTAA glacier balance model is described and applied to eight glaciers to produce detailed mass balance reports. Comparing annual balances produced by the model to traditional manual measurements for 50–60 years yields R2 values of 0.50–0.60. The model also reveals an unusual but statistically significant relationship between the average ablation of Wrangell Range glaciers and global temperatures that have been derived from temperature data at 7000 stations in the Northern Hemisphere. This glacier ablation/global temperature relationship provides the means to use worldwide ablation results to anticipate problems caused by climate change.

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Relation between the Mass Balance of Western Canadian Mountain Glaciers and Meteorological Data

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s002214300000900x ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 34 (116) ◽

pp. 11-18 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Anne Letréguilly

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Summer Temperature ◽

Equilibrium Line ◽

Regression Equations ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Mountain Glaciers

AbstractThe mass balance, summer balance, winter balance, and equilibrium-line altitude of three Canadian glaciers (Peyto, Place, and Sentinel Glaciers) are compared with the meteorological records of neighbouring stations for the period 1966—84. While Peyto Glacier’s mass balance is almost entirely related to summer temperature, Sentinel Glacier’s mass balance is mostly controlled by winter precipitation. Place Glacier is influenced by both elements. Statistical reconstructions are presented for the three glaciers, using the best regression equations with the meteorological records since 1938.

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The Influence of Air Temperature Inversions on Snowmelt and Glacier Mass Balance Simulations, Ammassalik Island, Southeast Greenland

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/2009jamc2065.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 49 (1) ◽

pp. 47-67 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

Sebastian H. Mernild ◽

Glen E. Liston

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Inversion Layer ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Simulation Domain ◽

Glacier Ice ◽

Temperature Inversions

Abstract In many applications, a realistic description of air temperature inversions is essential for accurate snow and glacier ice melt, and glacier mass-balance simulations. A physically based snow evolution modeling system (SnowModel) was used to simulate 8 yr (1998/99–2005/06) of snow accumulation and snow and glacier ice ablation from numerous small coastal marginal glaciers on the SW part of Ammassalik Island in SE Greenland. These glaciers are regularly influenced by inversions and sea breezes associated with the adjacent relatively low temperature and frequently ice-choked fjords and ocean. To account for the influence of these inversions on the spatiotemporal variation of air temperature and snow and glacier melt rates, temperature inversion routines were added to MircoMet, the meteorological distribution submodel used in SnowModel. The inversions were observed and modeled to occur during 84% of the simulation period. Modeled inversions were defined not to occur during days with strong winds and high precipitation rates because of the potential of inversion breakup. Field observations showed inversions to extend from sea level to approximately 300 m MSL, and this inversion level was prescribed in the model simulations. Simulations with and without the inversion routines were compared. The inversion model produced air temperature distributions with warmer lower-elevation areas and cooler higher-elevation areas than without inversion routines because of the use of cold sea-breeze-based temperature data from underneath the inversion. This yielded an up to 2 weeks earlier snowmelt in the lower areas and up to 1–3 weeks later snowmelt in the higher-elevation areas of the simulation domain. Averaged mean annual modeled surface mass balance for all glaciers (mainly located above the inversion layer) was −720 ± 620 mm w.eq. yr−1 (w.eq. is water equivalent) for inversion simulations, and −880 ± 620 mm w.eq. yr−1 without the inversion routines, a difference of 160 mm w.eq. yr−1. The annual glacier loss for the two simulations was 50.7 × 106 and 64.4 × 106 m3 yr−1 for all glaciers—a difference of ∼21%. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for all glaciers in the simulation domain was located at 875 and 900 m MSL for simulations with or without inversion routines, respectively.

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Snow Distribution and Melt Modeling for Mittivakkat Glacier, Ammassalik Island, Southeast Greenland

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm522.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 808-824 ◽

Cited By ~ 59

Author(s):

Sebastian H. Mernild ◽

Glen E. Liston ◽

Bent Hasholt ◽

Niels T. Knudsen

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽

Ice Melt ◽

Solid Precipitation ◽

Glacier Terminus ◽

Winter Snow ◽

Glacier Ice ◽

Surface Melt

Abstract A physically based snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) that includes four submodels—the Micrometeorological Model (MicroMet), EnBal, SnowPack, and SnowTran-3D—was used to simulate five full-year evolutions of snow accumulation, distribution, sublimation, and surface melt on the Mittivakkat Glacier, in southeast Greenland. Model modifications were implemented and used 1) to adjust underestimated observed meteorological station solid precipitation until the model matched the observed Mittivakkat Glacier winter mass balance, and 2) to simulate glacier-ice melt after the winter snow accumulation had ablated. Meteorological observations from two meteorological stations were used as model inputs, and glaciological mass balance observations were used for model calibration and testing of solid precipitation observations. The modeled end-of-winter snow-water equivalent (w.eq.) accumulation increased with elevation from 200 to 700 m above sea level (ASL) in response to both elevation and topographic influences, and the simulated end-of-summer location of the glacier equilibrium line altitude was confirmed by glaciological observations and digital images. The modeled test-period-averaged annual mass balance was 150 mm w.eq. yr−1, or ∼15%, less than the observed. Approximately 12% of the precipitation was returned to the atmosphere by sublimation. Glacier-averaged mean annual modeled surface melt ranged from 1272 to 2221 mm w.eq. yr−1, of which snowmelt contributed from 610 to 1040 mm w.eq. yr−1. The surface-melt period started between mid-May and the beginning of June, and lasted until mid-September; there were as many as 120 melt days at the glacier terminus. The model simulated a Mittivakkat Glacier recession averaging −616 mm w.eq. yr−1, almost equal to the observed −600 mm w.eq. yr−1.

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Mass Balance Study of a Glacier System from Hydrological Observations in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalaya

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0260305500010788 ◽

1985 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. 318-320

Author(s):

Tomom Yamaha ◽

Hideako Motoyama ◽

Kadcha Bdr. Thapa

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Balance Study ◽

Nepal Himalaya ◽

Degree Day ◽

Glacier System ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

Mass Balance Study ◽

Glacier Ablation ◽

Langtang Valley

Hydrological and meteorological observations of river runoff, precipitation and air temperature were conducted 27 August to 26 October 1982, in Langtang Valley, Nepal Himalaya, whereby the mass balance of the glacier system there was estimated. Observed values suggest that (1) all glacier ablation and rainwater in the subwatershed of Langtang Valley drain into the river with the runoff coefficient of 1; (2) ablation of the glacier system can be estimated simply using a degree-day factor of 10 mm/degree-day; and (3) precipitation is considered uniform over the whole watershed. Assuming that the suggested phenomena persist throughout the year, records of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature in this valley, indicate that annual accumulation and ablation in the glacier system amount to 2000 ± 200 mm, respectively.

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