Predicting subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
Abstract. In this paper we use the Shreve hydraulic potential equation to predict subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. For the Antarctic Ice Sheet we are able to predict known subglacial lakes with a >70% success rate, which demonstrates the validity of this method. Despite the success in predicting known subglacial lakes the calculations produce two-orders of magnitude more lakes than are presently identified, covering 4% of the ice-sheet bed. The difference is thought to result from our poor knowledge of the bed (which has resulted in artefacts associated with the interpolation method), intrinsic errors associated with the simplified modelling approach and because thousands of subglacial lakes, particularly smaller ones, remain to be found. Applying the same modelling approach to the Greenland Ice Sheet predicts only 90 lakes under the present-day ice-sheet configuration, covering 0.2% of the bed. The paucity of subglacial lakes in Greenland is thought to be a function of steeper overall ice-surface gradients. As no lakes have currently been located under Greenland, model predictions will make suitable targets for radar surveys of Greenland to identify subglacial lakes. During deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum both ice sheets had more subglacial lakes at their beds, though many of these lakes have persisted to present conditions. These lakes, inherited from past ice-sheet configurations would not form under current surface conditions, suggesting a retreating ice-sheet will have many more subglacial lakes than an advancing ice sheet. This hysteresis effect has implications for ice-stream formation and flow, bed lubrication and meltwater drainage. The lake model also allows modelling of the drainage pathways of the present-day and former Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Significantly, key sectors of the ice sheets, such as the Siple Coast (Antarctica) and NE Greenland Ice Stream system, are shown to have been susceptible to drainage switches and capture by neighbouring networks during deglaciation thus far.