scholarly journals The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 405-426
Author(s):  
Daniel Steinfeld ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Richard Forbes ◽  
Stephan Pfahl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Significant Case ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract. Recent studies have pointed to an important role of latent heating during cloud formation for the dynamics of anticyclonic circulation anomalies such as atmospheric blocking. However, the effect of latent heating on blocking formation and maintenance has not yet been fully elucidated. To explicitly study this cause-and-effect relationship, we perform sensitivity simulations of five selected blocking events with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) global weather prediction model in which we artificially eliminate latent heating in clouds upstream of the blocking anticyclones. This elimination has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation in all case studies, but there is also significant case-to-case variability: some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating, while for others the amplitude, size, and lifetime of the blocking anticyclones are merely reduced. This strong influence of latent heating on the midlatitude flow is due to the injection of air masses with low potential vorticity (PV) into the upper troposphere in strongly ascending “warm conveyor belt” airstreams and the interaction of the associated divergent outflow with the upper-level PV structure. The important influence of diabatic heating demonstrated with these experiments suggests that the accurate representation of moist processes in ascending airstreams in weather prediction and climate models is crucial for blocking dynamics.

scholarly journals The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to changes in upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Steinfeld ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Richard Forbes ◽  
Stephan Pfahl
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Microphysical Processes

Abstract. Recent climatological studies based on trajectory calculations have pointed to an important role of latent heating during cloud formation for the dynamics of anticyclonic circulation anomalies such as atmospheric blocking. However, the causal relationship between latent heating and blocking formation has not yet been fully elucidated. To explicitly study this causal relationship, we perform sensitivity simulations of five selected blocking events with a global weather prediction model in which we artificially eliminate latent heating in clouds upstream of the blocking anticyclones. This elimination has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation in all case studies, but there is also significant case-to-case variability: some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating, while for others the amplitude of the blocking anticyclones is merely reduced. This strong influence of latent heating on the jet stream is due to the injection of air masses with low potential vorticity (PV) into the upper troposphere in strongly ascending warm conveyor belt airstreams, and the interaction of the associated divergent outflow with the upper-level PV structure. The important influence of diabatic heating demonstrated with these experiments suggests that an accurate parameterization of microphysical processes in weather prediction and climate models is crucial for adequately representing blocking dynamics.

The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to changes in upstream latent heating

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
Daniel Steinfeld ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Richard Forbes
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Direct Injection ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Microphysical Processes

<p>Recent climatological studies based on trajectory calculations have pointed to an important role of latent heating during cloud formation for the dynamics of blocking anti-cyclones. However, the causal relationship between latent heating and blocking formation has not yet been fully elucidated. To explicitly study this causal relationship, we perform sensitivity simulations of selected blocking events with a global weather prediction model in which we artificially eliminate latent heating in clouds upstream of the blocking anti-cyclones. This elimination has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation in all case studies, but there is also significant case-to-case variability: some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating, while for others the amplitude of the blocking anticyclones is merely reduced. This strong influence of latent heating on the upper-level circulation is due to a combination of two effects: the direct injection of air masses with low potential vorticity (PV) into the upper troposphere in strongly ascending “warm conveyor belt” airstreams, and the indirect effect owing to the interaction of the associated divergent outflow with the upper-level PV structure. The important influence of diabatic heating demonstrated with these experiments suggests that an accurate parameterization of microphysical processes in weather prediction and climate models is crucial for adequately representing blocking dynamics.</p>

scholarly journals Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify Effects of Latent Heating in Extratropical Cyclones. Part I: Methodology

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (11) ◽  
pp. 3567-3590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Büeler ◽  
Stephan Pfahl
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Strongly Coupled ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Diabatic Processes

Abstract Extratropical cyclones develop because of baroclinic instability, but their intensification is often substantially amplified by diabatic processes, most importantly, latent heating (LH) through cloud formation. Although this amplification is well understood for individual cyclones, there is still need for a systematic and quantitative investigation of how LH affects cyclone intensification in different, particularly warmer and moister, climates. For this purpose, the authors introduce a simple diagnostic to quantify the contribution of LH to cyclone intensification within the potential vorticity (PV) framework. The two leading terms in the PV tendency equation, diabatic PV modification and vertical advection, are used to derive a diagnostic equation to explicitly calculate the fraction of a cyclone’s positive lower-tropospheric PV anomaly caused by LH. The strength of this anomaly is strongly coupled to cyclone intensity and the associated impacts in terms of surface weather. To evaluate the performance of the diagnostic, sensitivity simulations of 12 Northern Hemisphere cyclones with artificially modified LH are carried out with a numerical weather prediction model. Based on these simulations, it is demonstrated that the PV diagnostic captures the mean sensitivity of the cyclones’ PV structure to LH as well as parts of the strong case-to-case variability. The simple and versatile PV diagnostic will be the basis for future climatological studies of LH effects on cyclone intensification.

scholarly journals Distinguishing the Cold Conveyor Belt and Sting Jet Airstreams in an Intense Extratropical Cyclone

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (8) ◽  
pp. 2571-2595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Martínez-Alvarado ◽  
Laura H. Baker ◽  
Suzanne L. Gray ◽  
John Methven ◽  
Robert S. Plant
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Mesoscale Structures ◽  
Mesoscale Structure ◽  
Chemical Tracer ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
First Time

Abstract Strong winds equatorward and rearward of a cyclone core have often been associated with two phenomena: the cold conveyor belt (CCB) jet and sting jets. Here, detailed observations of the mesoscale structure in this region of an intense cyclone are analyzed. The in situ and dropsonde observations were obtained during two research flights through the cyclone during the Diabatic Influences on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Storms (DIAMET) field campaign. A numerical weather prediction model is used to link the strong wind regions with three types of “airstreams” or coherent ensembles of trajectories: two types are identified with the CCB, hooking around the cyclone center, while the third is identified with a sting jet, descending from the cloud head to the west of the cyclone. Chemical tracer observations show for the first time that the CCB and sting jet airstreams are distinct air masses even when the associated low-level wind maxima are not spatially distinct. In the model, the CCB experiences slow latent heating through weak-resolved ascent and convection, while the sting jet experiences weak cooling associated with microphysics during its subsaturated descent. Diagnosis of mesoscale instabilities in the model shows that the CCB passes through largely stable regions, while the sting jet spends relatively long periods in locations characterized by conditional symmetric instability (CSI). The relation of CSI to the observed mesoscale structure of the bent-back front and its possible role in the cloud banding is discussed.

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Representation in Global Climate Models: Twenty Years of Improvements?

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 8823-8840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Fabio D’Andrea
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Atlantic Sector

Abstract The correct simulation of midlatitude atmospheric blocking has always been a main concern since the earliest days of numerical modeling of Earth’s atmosphere. To this day blocking represents a considerable source of error for general circulation models from both a numerical weather prediction and a climate perspective. In the present work, 20 years of global climate model (GCM) developments are analyzed from the special point of view of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation. Making use of a series of equivalent metrics, three generations of GCMs are compared. This encompasses a total of 95 climate models, many of which are different—successive—versions of the same model. Results from model intercomparison projects AMIP1 (1992), CMIP3 (2007), and CMIP5 (2012) are taken into consideration. Although large improvements are seen over the Pacific Ocean, only minor advancements have been achieved over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Some of the most recent GCMs still exhibit the same negative bias as 20 years ago in this region, associated with large geopotential height systematic errors. Some individual models, nevertheless, have improved and do show good performances in both sectors. Negligible differences emerge among ocean-coupled or atmosphere-only simulations, suggesting weak relevance of sea surface temperature biases. Conversely, increased horizontal resolution seems to be able to alleviate the Euro-Atlantic blocking bias.

Interaction between Atlantic cyclones and Eurasian atmospheric blocking drives warm extremes in the high Arctic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Murto ◽  
Rodrigo Caballero ◽  
Gunilla Svensson ◽  
Lukas Papritz
Keyword(s):  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Back Trajectory ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Ural Mountains ◽  
Compact Region ◽  
Westerly Flow ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Maximum Heating

<p>Atmospheric blocking can influence Arctic weather by diverting the mean westerly flow polewards, bringing warm, moist air to high latitudes. Recent studies have shown that diabatic heating processes in the ascending warm conveyor belt branch of extratropical cyclones are relevant to blocking dynamics. This leads to the question of the extent to which diabatic heating associated with mid-latitude cyclones may influence high-latitude blocking and drive Arctic warm events. In this study we investigate the dynamics behind 50 extreme warm events of wintertime high Arctic surface temperature anomalies. We find that 30 of these events are associated with “Ural” blocking, featuring negative upper-level PV anomalies over central Siberia north of the Ural Mountains. Lagrangian back-trajectory calculations show that almost 70% of the air parcels making up these negative PV anomalies experience lifting and diabatic heating (average 14,7 K) in the 9-days prior to blocking. Further, 43,4 % of the heated trajectories undergo maximum heating and lifting in a compact region of the midlatitude North Atlantic, temporally taking place between 6 and 2.5 days before arriving in the blocking region. These trajectories mainly reside in the subtropics before being advected into the lifting region. We also find anomalously high cyclonic activity (on average 3,9 cyclones within a 3,5-day window around the time of maximum lifting) within a sector northwest of the main lifting domain. This study highlights the importance of the interaction between mid-latitude cyclones and Eurasian blocking as driver for Arctic warm extremes.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics of Arctic low-tropospheric humidity inversions based on radio soundings

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1959-1971 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Nygård ◽  
T. Valkonen ◽  
T. Vihma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Striking Difference ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Arctic Atmosphere ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Temperature Inversions

Abstract. Humidity inversions have a high potential importance in the Arctic climate system, especially for cloud formation and maintenance, in wide spatial and temporal scales. Here we investigate the climatology and characteristics of humidity inversions in the Arctic, including their spatial and temporal variability, sensitivity to the methodology applied and differences from the Antarctic humidity inversions. The study is based on data of the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) from 36 Arctic stations between the years 2000 and 2009. The results indicate that humidity inversions are present on multiple levels nearly all the time in the Arctic atmosphere. Almost half (48%) of the humidity inversions were found at least partly within the same vertical layer with temperature inversions, whereas the existence of the other half may, at least partly, be linked to uneven vertical distribution of horizontal moisture transport. A high atmospheric surface pressure was found to increase the humidity inversion occurrence, whereas relationships between humidity inversion properties and cloud cover were generally relatively weak, although for some inversion properties they were systematic. For example, humidity inversions occurred slightly more often and were deeper under clear sky than in overcast conditions for almost all stations. The statistics of Arctic humidity inversion properties, especially inversion strength, depth and base height, proved to be very sensitive to the instruments and methodology applied. For example, the median strength of the strongest inversion in a profile was twice as large as the median of all Arctic inversions. The most striking difference between the Arctic and Antarctic humidity inversions was the much larger range of the seasonal cycle of inversion properties in the Arctic. Our results offer a baseline for validation of weather prediction and climate models and also encourage further studies on humidity inversions due to the vital, but so far poorly understood, role of humidity inversions in Arctic cloud processes.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Arctic low-tropospheric humidity inversions based on radio soundings

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 22575-22605 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Nygård ◽  
T. Valkonen ◽  
T. Vihma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Striking Difference ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Inversion Strength ◽  
Arctic Atmosphere ◽  
Temperature Inversions

Abstract. Humidity inversions have a high potential importance in the Arctic climate system, especially for cloud formation and maintenance, in wide spatial and temporal scales. Here we investigate the climatology and characteristics of humidity inversions in the Arctic, including their spatial and temporal variability, sensitivity to the methodology applied and differences from the Antarctic humidity inversions. The study is based on data of the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) from 36 Arctic stations between the years 2000–2009. The results indicate that humidity inversions are nearly all the time present on multiple levels in the Arctic atmosphere. Almost half (48%) of the humidity inversions were found at least partly within the same vertical layer with temperature inversions, whereas the existence of the other half may, at least partly, be linked to uneven vertical distribution of horizontal moisture transport. A high atmospheric surface pressure was found to increase the humidity inversion occurrence, whereas relationships between humidity inversion properties and cloud cover were generally relatively weak, although for some inversion properties systematic. The statistics of Arctic humidity inversion properties, especially inversion strength, depth and base height, proved to be very sensitive to the instruments and methodology applied. For example, the median strength of the strongest inversion in a profile was twice as large as the median of all Arctic inversions. The most striking difference between the Arctic and Antarctic humidity inversions was the much larger range of the seasonal cycle of inversion properties in the Arctic. Our results offer a baseline for validation of weather prediction and climate models and also encourage for further studies on humidity inversions due to the vital, but so far poorly understood, role of humidity inversions in Arctic cloud processes.

Spurious Grid-Scale Precipitation in the North American Regional Reanalysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2168-2184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory L. West ◽  
W. James Steenburgh ◽  
William Y. Y. Cheng
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract Spurious grid-scale precipitation (SGSP) occurs in many mesoscale numerical weather prediction models when the simulated atmosphere becomes convectively unstable and the convective parameterization fails to relieve the instability. Case studies presented in this paper illustrate that SGSP events are also found in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and are accompanied by excessive maxima in grid-scale precipitation, vertical velocity, moisture variables (e.g., relative humidity and precipitable water), mid- and upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and mid- and upper-level absolute vorticity. SGSP events in environments favorable for high-based convection can also feature low-level cold pools and sea level pressure maxima. Prior to 2003, retrospectively generated NARR analyses feature an average of approximately 370 SGSP events annually. Beginning in 2003, however, NARR analyses are generated in near–real time by the Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS), which is identical to the retrospective NARR analysis system except for the input precipitation and ice cover datasets. Analyses produced by the R-CDAS feature a substantially larger number of SGSP events with more than 4000 occurring in the original 2003 analyses. An oceanic precipitation data processing error, which resulted in a reprocessing of NARR analyses from 2003 to 2005, only partially explains this increase since the reprocessed analyses still produce approximately 2000 SGSP events annually. These results suggest that many NARR SGSP events are not produced by shortcomings in the underlying Eta Model, but by the specification of anomalous latent heating when there is a strong mismatch between modeled and assimilated precipitation. NARR users should ensure that they are using the reprocessed NARR analyses from 2003 to 2005 and consider the possible influence of SGSP on their findings, particularly after the transition to the R-CDAS.

scholarly journals Dynamical and Physical Processes Leading to Tropical Cyclone Intensification under Upper-Level Trough Forcing

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (8) ◽  
pp. 2547-2565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Dominique Leroux ◽  
Matthieu Plu ◽  
David Barbary ◽  
Frank Roux ◽  
Philippe Arbogast
Keyword(s):  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Thick Layer ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The rapid intensification of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dora (2007, southwest Indian Ocean) under upper-level trough forcing is investigated. TC–trough interaction is simulated using a limited-area operational numerical weather prediction model. The interaction between the storm and the trough involves a coupled evolution of vertical wind shear and binary vortex interaction in the horizontal and vertical dimensions. The three-dimensional potential vorticity structure associated with the trough undergoes strong deformation as it approaches the storm. Potential vorticity (PV) is advected toward the tropical cyclone core over a thick layer from 200 to 500 hPa while the TC upper-level flow turns cyclonic from the continuous import of angular momentum. It is found that vortex intensification first occurs inside the eyewall and results from PV superposition in the thick aforementioned layer. The main pathway to further storm intensification is associated with secondary eyewall formation triggered by external forcing. Eddy angular momentum convergence and eddy PV fluxes are responsible for spinning up an outer eyewall over the entire troposphere, while spindown is observed within the primary eyewall. The 8-km-resolution model is able to reproduce the main features of the eyewall replacement cycle observed for TC Dora. The outer eyewall intensifies further through mean vertical advection under dynamically forced upward motion. The processes are illustrated and quantified using various diagnostics.

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