scholarly journals Early-Stage Modelling and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burkina Faso using a Bayesian SIR Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-156
Author(s):  
Somda S.M.A. ◽  
Dabone E.B.A. ◽  
Doulougou M. ◽  
Bationo C.S. ◽  
Galboni K.T.M.
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Government

In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach for estimating and predicting the magnitude of the coronavirus epidemic in Burkina Faso in its early stage. Our approach is inspired by the work of Wang et al. but adapted to the Burkinabe context. Two models are presented: a simple Bayesian SIR approach and another Bayesian SIR which takes into account the public health measures undertaken by the government of Burkina Faso. The approach was implemented at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Burkina Faso, covering the period from March 9 to April 30, 2020. The results of the analyses will allow a good prediction of COVID-19 infections and deaths in the early days of the epidemic, considering government policies.

scholarly journals The Outcome and Implications of Public Precautionary Measures in Taiwan–Declining Respiratory Disease Cases in the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 4877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Chia Hsieh ◽  
Chih-Hao Lin ◽  
William Yu Chung Wang ◽  
David J. Pauleen ◽  
Jengchung Victor Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Major Purpose ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government

With the rapid development of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are trying to cope with increasing medical demands, and, at the same time, to reduce the increase of infected numbers by implementing a number of public health measures, namely non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). These public health measures can include social distancing, frequent handwashing, and personal protective equipment (PPE) at the personal level; at the community and the government level, these measures can range from canceling activities, avoiding mass gatherings, closing facilities, and, at the extreme, enacting national or provincial lockdowns. Rather than completely stopping the infectious disease, the major purpose of these NPIs in facing an emerging infectious disease is to reduce the contact rate within the population, and reduce the spread of the virus until the time a vaccine or reliable medications become available. The idea is to avoid a surge of patients with severe symptoms beyond the capacity of the hospitals’ medical resources, which would lead to more mortality and morbidity. While many countries have experienced steep curves in new cases, some, including Hong Kong, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan, seem to have controlled or even eliminated the infection locally. From its first case of COVID-19 on the 21 January until the 12 May, Taiwan had 440 cases, including just 55 local infections, and seven deaths in total, representing 1.85 cases per 100,000 population and a 1.5% death rate (based on the Worldometer 2020 statistics of Taiwan’s population of 23.8 million). This paper presents evidence that spread prevention involving mass masking and universal hygiene at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 50% decline of infectious respiratory diseases, based on historical data during the influenza season in Taiwan. These outcomes provide potential support for the effectiveness of widely implementing public health precaution measures in controlling COVID-19 without a lockdown policy.

scholarly journals Effective mitigation strategy in early stage of COVID-19 pandemic in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yue Yu ◽  
Chen Xu ◽  
Hu-Wen Wang ◽  
Rui-Jie Chang ◽  
Yin-Qiao Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Epidemic Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic

Abstract In the past five months, success in control the national epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been witnessed in China. The implementation of public health measures accounts for the success which include different interventions in the early or later stages of the outbreak. It is clear that although not all measures were universally effective worldwide, their achievements have been significant. More solidarity is needed to deal with this global pandemic with more learning and understanding. Understanding which of the public health interventions implemented in China were effective may provide ideas for international epidemic control.

scholarly journals Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic in Vietnam: Lessons From a Limited Resource Country

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duc Minh Duong ◽  
Vui Thi Le ◽  
Bui Thi Thu Ha
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Limited Resource ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Operation Case

The lessons learned from Vietnam, a country that the world acclaimed for its management of the fight against COVID-19, could stand out as an example of how to do more with less. The Vietnamese government has acted swiftly at the very early stage of the pandemic with a focus on containment efforts and extensive public health measures, particularly (1) the commitment from the government with a multisectoral approach; (2) a timely, accurate, and transparent risk communication; (3) active surveillance and intensive isolation/quarantine operation, case management with tracing all new arrivals and close contact up to three clusters; and (4) suspension of flights, shutting schools, and all nonessential services.

scholarly journals The effect of early-stage public health policies on the transmission of COVID-19 in South American countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Valcarcel ◽  
Jose L Avilez ◽  
J. Smith Torres-Roman ◽  
Julio A Poterico ◽  
Janina Bazalar-Palacios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
South American ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Country Specific

Objectives: The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. Methods: Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 estimates during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt estimates after 90 days were estimated. Results: Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. Conclusion: R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

scholarly journals From ‘herd immunity’ to ‘stay home’ to ‘stay alert’: United Kingdom’s response to COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58
Author(s):  
Robert O. Nartowski ◽  
Lucy Huby ◽  
Ruairidh Topham ◽  
Szymon Golen ◽  
Katrin Brückner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
The Government ◽  
Governmental Response

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in various public health responses around the globe. Due to the devolved powers of the United Kingdom, the response has been centralized but simultaneously greatly differing across England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The following article examines the governmental responses to the outbreak, the public health measures taken, data collection and statistics, protective equipment and bed capacity, the society’s response, and lastly, the easing of the lockdown restrictions. In terms of the governmental response, the COVID-19 pandemic was initially met with less urgenon/populacy and social distancing, along with the development of herd immunity, were first mentioned. As the virus continued to spread, the government started imposing stricter measures and a lockdown was implemented. Tests were conducted using a five pillar typology. The collection of information, particularly on COVID-19 associated deaths, varied across the United Kingdom and among the governmental organizations due to differing definitions. In term of hospital bed availability, the rate of hospitalizations was the highest from late March to early April of 2020. Temporary hospitals were constructed, however, they mostly went unused. The United Kingdom society was generally compliant in adapting to the lockdown and trust in the government rose. Nonetheless, as the lockdown progressed, trust in the government began to fall. After several months, the rate of infection decreased and the lockdown in the United Kingdom was lifted in accordance with ‘Our plan to rebuild: The United Kingdom Government’s COVID-19 recovery strategy’. The slogan ‘Stay at Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives’ was replaced with ‘Stay Alert. Control the Virus. Save Lives’.

scholarly journals The effect of early-stage public health policies in the transmission of COVID-19 for South American countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bryan Valcarcel ◽  
Jose L. Avilez ◽  
J. Smith Torres-Roman ◽  
Julio A. Poterico ◽  
Janina Bazalar-Palacios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
South American ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Country Specific

Objectives. The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. Methods. Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 values during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt values after 90 days were estimated. Results. Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. Conclusion. R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

Corrupt Practices in the Public Health Sector: A Focus on Metropolitan Local Government Areas of Kano State, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mustapha Namadi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Healthcare Provision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Sector ◽  
The Government

Corruption is pervasive in Nigeria at all levels. Thus, despite recent gains in healthcare provision, the health sector faces numerous corruption related challenges. This study aims at examining areas of corruption in the health sector with specific focus on its types and nature. A sample size of 480 respondents aged 18 years and above was drawn from the eight Metropolitan Local Government Areas of Kano State, using the multistage sampling technique. The results revealed evidence of corrupt practices including those related to unnecessary-absenteeism, diversion of patients from the public health facilities to the private sector, diverting money meant for the purchase of equipment, fuel and diesel, bribery, stealing of medications, fraud, misappropriation of medications and unjustifiable reimbursement claims. In order to resolve the problem of corrupt practices in the healthcare sector, the study recommended the need for enforcement of appropriate code of ethics guiding the conduct of the health professionals, adoption of anti-corruption strategies, and strengthening the government monitoring system to check corruption in public health sector in order to ensure equitable access to healthcare services among the under-privileged people in the society.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Southeast Asia: Implications for workers and unions

2021 ◽  
pp. 002218562110000
Author(s):  
Michele Ford ◽  
Kristy Ward
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
First Year ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
The Public ◽  
Market Effects ◽  
Export Orientation ◽  
Health Measures

The labour market effects in Southeast Asia of the COVID-19 pandemic have attracted considerable analysis from both scholars and practitioners. However, much less attention has been paid to the pandemic’s impact on legal protections for workers’ and unions’ rights, or to what might account for divergent outcomes in this respect in economies that share many characteristics, including a strong export orientation in labour-intensive industries and weak industrial relations institutions. Having described the public health measures taken to control the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam, this article analyses governments’ employment-related responses and their impact on workers and unions in the first year of the pandemic. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the disruption caused to these countries’ economies, and societies, served to reproduce existing patterns of state–labour relations rather than overturning them.

Funding models and expenditures with primary healthcare in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil metropolitan area

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Vivas ◽  
M Duarte ◽  
A Pitta ◽  
B Christovam
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Primary Healthcare ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Ministry Of Health ◽  
Healthcare Budget ◽  
Health Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background The government investments in quality primary healthcare are the basis to strengthening the health systems and monitoring the public expenditure in this area is a way to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the public health policies. The Brazil Ministry of Health changed, in 2017, the method of onlending federal resources to states and cities seeking to make the public funds management more flexible. This change, however, suppressed mandatory investments in primary healthcare. This research aims to determine the difference of expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil metropolitan area before and after this funding reform, seeking to verify how it can impact the quality of primary healthcare services and programs. Methods This is an ecological time-series study that used data obtained in the Brazil Ministry of Health budget reports. The median and interquartile range of expenditures on primary healthcare (set as the percentage of total public health budget applied in primary care services and programs) of the 13 cities in the Salvador metropolitan area were compared two years before and after the reform. Results The median of expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador metropolitan area was 25.5% (13,9% - 32,2%) of total public health budget before and 24.8% (20.8% - 30.0%) of total public health budget after the reform (-0.7% difference). Seven cities decreased the expenditures on primary healthcare after the reform, ranging from 1.2% to 10.8% reduction in the primary healthcare budget in five years. Conclusions Expenditures on primary healthcare in Salvador metropolitan area decreased after the 2017 funding reform. Seven of 13 cities reduced the government investments on primary healthcare services and programs in this scenario. Although the overall difference was -0.7%, the budget cuts ranged from 1.2% to 10.8% in the analyzed period and sample. More studies should assess these events in wide areas and with long time ranges. Key messages Public health funding models can impact the primary healthcare settings regardless of the health policy. Reforms in the funding models should consider the possible benefits before implementation. Funding models and methods that require mandatory investments in primary healthcare may be considered over more flexible ones.

scholarly journals The potential dangers of not understanding COVID-19 public health restrictions in dementia: “It’s a groundhog day – every single day she does not understand why she can’t go out for a walk”

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Manoj Rajagopal ◽  
Aravind Komuravelli ◽  
Jacqueline Cannon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cognitive Deficits ◽  
Third Sector ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Third Sector Organisations ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background Sudden public health restrictions can be difficult to comprehend for people with cognitive deficits. However, these are even more important for them to adhere to due to their increased levels of vulnerability, particularly to COVID-19. With a lack of previous evidence, we explored the understanding and changes in adherence to COVID-19 public health restrictions over time in people living with dementia (PLWD). Methods Unpaid carers and PLWD were interviewed over the phone in April 2020, shortly after the nationwide UK lockdown, with a proportion followed up from 24th June to 10th July. Participants were recruited via social care and third sector organisations across the UK, and via social media. Findings A total of 70 interviews (50 baseline, 20 follow-up) were completed with unpaid carers and PLWD. Five themes emerged: Confusion and limited comprehension; Frustration and burden; Putting oneself in danger; Adherence to restrictions in wider society; (Un) changed perceptions. Most carers reported limited to no understanding of the public health measures in PLWD, causing distress and frustration for both the carer and the PLWD. Due to the lack of understanding, some PLWD put themselves in dangerous situations without adhering to the restrictions. PLWD with cognitive capacity who participated understood the measures and adhered to these. Discussion In light of the new second wave of the pandemic, public health measures need to be simpler for PLWD to avoid unwilful non-adherence. Society also needs to be more adaptive to the needs of people with cognitive disabilities more widely, as blanket rules cause distress to the lives of those affected by dementia.

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