scholarly journals A Causal Model to Compare the Extent of Undergraduates’- Postgraduates’ Impact on Unemployment in Uganda

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Victoria Kakooza ◽  
Robert Wamala ◽  
James Wokadala ◽  
Thomas Bwire
Keyword(s):  
Causal Model ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Affirmative Answer ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Technological Unemployment ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The combination of technological unemployment and oversupply of graduates has increased competition in the labour markets. Postgraduates have been noted to hold more than one job and in some cases apply for jobs meant for undergraduates. Could this imply that post graduates have created more overall unemployment than undergraduates have, in the Ugandan labour market? This is the novel of this study. This was accomplished by a statistical model that comparatively analysed the bi-causal effect of postgraduates on unemployment; versus effect of undergraduates on unemployment. As such, the study utilised Uganda’s secondary data from 1991 to 2017, and employed the Vector Error Correction (VECM) model. The results of the study showed the existence of a long run impact of both the postgraduates and undergraduates on overall unemployment, but an insignificant impact in the short run. The postgraduates had a greater impact on unemployment in the long run, than the undergraduates.  The study therefore reveals an affirmative answer to the aforementioned question.

scholarly journals Do Diaspora Remittances Guarantee Food Security in Nigeria?

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-53
Author(s):  
Onime, Bright Enakhe ◽  
E. Kalu, Ijeoma
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Security Challenge

The burgeoning remittances into Nigeria and their effect on the economy have received renewed attention in recent times. Literature has suggested the existence of a relationship between remittances and food security. The extent to which this is true for Nigeria is uncertain. Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), this study examined the link between remittances and food security using secondary data for the period 1980 to 2018. Findings revealed a robust long and short-run relationship between remittances and food security. In the short-run, a positive and significant relationship was found between remittances and food security in the current period such that a 1 per cent increase in remittances was associated with a 5.08 per cent improvement in food security. In the long-run, a cointegrated relationship was observed as the error correction term depicting this relationship was well-behaved, properly signed and significant indicating that any previous period deviation in long-run equilibrium is corrected in the current period at an adjustment speed of 28.8 per cent. In addition, the Granger test suggests a unidirectional causality running from remittances to food security such that past values of remittances determined food security during the period investigated. Consequent to the findings, the study recommended with a caveat, the design and proper implementation of a diaspora and remittances policy to cater for the welfare of Nigerians in the diaspora to improve remittance receipts and by implication, food security. However, since remittances alone cannot guarantee food security in Nigeria, this study further recommends a holistic and multidimensional approach to address the food security challenge and close the food deficit gap.

scholarly journals DOES TAXATION HAS IMPACT ON INVESTMENT? AN EMPIRICAL RESPONSE FROM CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

10.26458/1931 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 57-74
Author(s):  
Tajudeen A. ADEGBITE
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Corporate Income Tax ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

ABSTRACTThis study examined the effect of taxation on investment in Nigeria from 1970 to 2018. Relevant secondary data were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins and Federal Inland Revenue Services Bulletin from 1970 to 2018. Regression analysis technique, Units root test, Johansen co-integration, Vector Error-Correction Model, and Granger causality tests were employed to determine the long run relationship and causality links among the variables. Results showed that PPT and Value added tax had positive significant impact on INV both in the short run and in the long run while Company income tax, and Custom and Excise duties impacted INV negatively. It is concluded that all components of taxes had positive significant impact on investment in Nigeria except corporate income tax. Corporate income tax had negative significant impact on investment both in the short run and in the long run.

scholarly journals Investment and Economic Indicators in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Masturah Ma’in ◽  
Norfaiezah Nordin ◽  
Izza Hazira Zailan ◽  
Saliza Sulaiman ◽  
Zuraidah Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

This study is to investigate the relationship between economic indicators and investment in Malaysia using secondary data spanned through 1982-2015. This study employs an empirical analysis by adapting the unit root test, Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model (VECM) to determine the short-run and long run effect among variables. The cointegrating test indicates that investment is significantly related to the trade openness, GDP and population. Based on the VECM results, the findings show that a long run relationship exists between the trade openness and investment in Malaysia. Hence, these reveal that it is important for the Malaysian government to enhance the economic policy in liberalizing foreign trade in order to encourage more investments.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals The spatial integration of potato wholesale markets of Uttarakhand in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Kumar ◽  
R Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Spatial Integration ◽  
Market Information ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Demand

This paper analyzes the spatial integration of potato markets in Uttarakhand using monthly wholesale price for ten years. The maximum likelihood method of cointegration developed by Johansen (1988) was used in the study. The dynamics of short-run price responses were examined using vector error correction model (VECM). The results indicated that five potato markets reacted on the long-run cointegrating equations while the speed of price adjustment in the short-run was almost absent. Moreover, it was found that the longer the distance between the markets, the weaker the integration was. To increase the efficiency of potato markets in Uttarakhand, there is need to focus on building an improved market information system. This system should be able to disseminate timely market information about price, demand and supply of produce to enable producers, traders and consumers to make proper production and marketing decisions.SAARC J. Agri., 14(2): 20-30 (2016)

scholarly journals Investigating Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narinder Pal Singh ◽  
Navneet Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Indian Culture ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Gold and Indian culture have been sharing an age-old association. India is one of the top two consumers of gold. Gold is the most popular investment avenue because of its ability to provide liquidity. The average monthly price however has grown by 1,588 percent over the whole period from 1979 to 2017 (June). In this article, we intend to investigate gold as an investment to hedge against inflation. The sample period to study the relationship between gold and inflation is 2011–2017 (March). To analyze long-run equilibrium between gold and inflation (consumer price index [CPI]), Johansen’s cointegration approach has been used. The short- and long-run causality between gold and inflation has been studied using vector error correction model (VECM) and Wald test. The results of cointegration indicate that gold and CPI series are cointegrated and bear long-run equilibrium. Both VECM and Wald test results indicate that there is only long-run causality between CPI and gold prices. However, in short run these variables do not show any causality. Thus, we infer that gold investment can be used as hedge against Inflation. The findings of this research have got direct implications for retail investors, portfolio managers, treasury and fund managers, government, and commercial traders.

scholarly journals Profitability Variables and Bank Size Effects on Corporate Zakat: Evidence from Indonesian Islamic Banks

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-66
Author(s):  
Muhammad Anif Afandi
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Operational Activities ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Research Period

Islamic banks carry out their operational activities based on Islamic principles. Thus, they are not only required to pay taxes but also zakat of 2.5 percent with several conditions. Theoretically, zakat has an impact on Islamic banks larger expenditures compared to conventional banks which are not obliged to. This research examines and analyzes the extent to which profitability variables which are ROA, ROE, and BOPO, and bank size which is represented by total assets, can affect corporate zakat expenditure by Islamic Commercial Banks (BUS) in Indonesia. To do so, the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) is used to analyze the subject matters which the period covers from 2012 to 2017. This work finds that in the short-run, all the independent variables were insignificant. However, in the long-run only ROE and BOPO which were significant. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis showed that the dependent variable responds to the shock of its independent variables with fluctuating and even negative trend. In addition, the results of Variance Decomposition (VDC) analysis showed that the contribution of profitability variables and bank size tended to decrease toward the formation of corporate zakat expenditure by BUS until the end of the research period. Keywords: Corporate Zakat Expenditure, Islamic Banks, Profitability, Bank Size, PVECM

scholarly journals Foreign capital flows, exports and growth in Zambia

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 26-37
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Growth Enhancement ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Flows ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the causality between FDI net inflows, exports and GDP using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The words foreign capital flows and FDI are used interchangeably in this study. The findings from the VECM estimation technique is six fold: (1) the study revealed a long run causality relationship running from exports and GDP towards FDI, (2) the study showed a non–significant long run causality relationship running from FDI and exports towards GDP and (3) the existence of a weak long run causality relationship running from FDI and GDP towards exports in Zambia. The study also found out that no short run causality relationship that runs from FDI and exports towards GDP, short run causality running from FDI and GDP towards exports does not exist and there is no short run causality relationship running from exports and GDP towards FDI. Contrary to the theory which says that FDI brings along with it a whole lot of advantages (FDI technological diffusion and spill over effects), the current study found that the impact of FDI in Zambia is not significant in the long run. This is possibly because certain host country locational characteristics that ensures that Zambia can benefit from FDI inflows are not in place or they might be in place but still not yet reached a certain minimum threshold levels. This might be an interesting area for further research. On the backdrop of the findings of this study, the author recommends that the Zambian authorities should formulate and implement export promotion strategies and economic growth enhancement initiatives in order to be able to attract more FDI.

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