scholarly journals Prediction of satellite track of tropical cyclone from spiral bands

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
BRIJ BHUSHAN
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Initial Point ◽  
The Future ◽  
Observational Errors ◽  
Spiral Bands

 ABSTRACT. The sector of the eye wall where a spiraling convective barxi a~ars to fasten with it changes and oscillates over the eye wall and such a sector is easily discernible in EnhancOO fufra Red (EIR) imagery received from satellite for a cyclone whose intensity is more than T5.0. It has been argued that a vector having initial point at the centre of the cyclone arxi passing through this particular sector of the eye wall, indicates the future satellite track of a tropical cyclone. The data of the two cyclones. which were showing above mentioned identifiable feawre during a part of their lives. withstood the logic within observational errors.    

scholarly journals Future Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Multi-RCMs Forced by HadGEM2-AO

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 5053-5067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeonjae Lee ◽  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Minkyu Lee ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cordex East Asia

AbstractFuture changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed using four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. All RCMs are forced by the HadGEM2-AO under the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50-km resolution over the CORDEX-East Asia domain. In the historical simulations (1980–2005), multi-RCM ensembles yield realistic climatology for TC tracks and genesis frequency during the TC season (June–November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future (2024–49) projections indicate an insignificant increase in the total number of TC genesis (+5%), but a significant increase in track density over East Asia coastal regions (+17%). The enhanced TC activity over the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased sea surface temperature (SST) at midlatitudes. The future accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of total TCs increases significantly (+19%) because individual TCs have a longer lifetime (+6.6%) and stronger maximum wind speed (+4.1%) compared to those in the historical run. In particular, the ACE of TCs passing through 25°N increases by 45.9% in the future climate, indicating that the destructiveness of TCs can be significantly enhanced in the midlatitudes despite the total number of TCs not changing greatly.

scholarly journals A Look at the Relationship between the Large-Scale Tropospheric Static Stability and the Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-975
Author(s):  
Alexandria Downs ◽  
Chanh Kieu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractVarious modeling and observational studies have suggested that tropical cyclone (TC) intensity tends to increase in the future due to projected warmer sea surface temperature (SST). This study examines the effects of the tropospheric stratification that could potentially offset the direct increase of TC intensity associated with the warmer SST. Using reanalysis datasets and TC records in the northwestern Pacific and the North Atlantic basins, it is shown that there exists a consistently negative correlation between the annually averaged TC intensity and the basinwide average of the tropospheric static stability. This negative correlation is more robust in the northwestern Pacific basin when using the TC lifetime maximum intensity but is somewhat less significant in the North Atlantic basin. Further separation of the troposphere into a lower (1000–500 hPa) and an upper layer (500–200 hPa) reveals that it is the upper-tropospheric static stability that plays a more dominant role in governing the TC intensity variability. The negating effects of a stable troposphere on TC intensity as found in this study suggest a partial offset of the projected increase in the TC potential intensity due to the future warmer SST. Thus, the tropospheric static stability is one of the key large-scale factors that need to be properly taken into account in studies of long-term TC intensity change.

Effect of tropical cyclone intensity and instability on the evolution of spiral bands

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1090-1100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Huang ◽  
Yongqiang Jiang ◽  
Zhongyi Chen ◽  
Jian Luo ◽  
Xuezhong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Spiral Bands

scholarly journals A Review of the Research on Emergency Logistics for Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Guangxi

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-142
Author(s):  
Guoyou Yue ◽  
Boonsub Panichakarn
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Quantitative Calculation ◽  
Emergency Logistics ◽  
The Future

Objective - The purpose of this paper is to find out the key research direction and disaster relief optimization method of governments and organizations at all levels in Guangxi to deal with tropical cyclone disasters. Methodology/Technique - In terms of research methods, most of the research results focus on the qualitative research of emergency logistics, and the results of quantitative research are relatively few, but there are many kinds of quantitative calculation methods. In terms of focus, the optimization methods of emergency supplies dispatching are studied more, but the forecast results of emergency supplies requirements are less. Finding - Through literature survey method and in-depth interview method, the research status of emergency logistics is reviewed and analyzed in four aspects: tropical cyclone disaster, basic theory and method of emergency logistics, emergency supplies requirements prediction and emergency supplies dispatching. Through literature combing, there are three main aspects of the discovery. In terms of disaster types, most of the existing research results pay more attention to earthquake, flood and other natural disasters emergency logistics treatment, the results of emergency logistics treatment for tropical cyclone disasters are less, and the results of emergency logistics treatment for tropical cyclone disasters in Guangxi are fewer. Novelty - By comparing and determining the future research direction of this study, we focus on the formation law of tropical cyclone disaster chain in Guangxi, the optimization treatment methods and practical applications of emergency supplies requirements prediction and emergency supplies dispatching. The research results provide theoretical and methodological guidance for governments and organizations at all levels in Guangxi to carry out tropical cyclone disaster relief, and also point out the research direction and focus for further research in the future. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Emergency Logistics; Tropical Cyclone Disasters; Emergency Supplies Requirements; Emergency Supplies Dispatching; Guangxi JEL Classification: N7, Q54. URI: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/GJBSSR/vol9.2_3.html DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.2(3) Pages 128 – 142

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone formation regions in CMIP5 models: a global performance assessment and projected changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3213-3237
Author(s):  
K. J. Tory ◽  
H. Ye ◽  
G. Brunet
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Future ◽  
Warming World

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation regions are analysed in twelve CMIP5 models using a recently developed diagnostic that provides a model-performance summary in a single image for the mid-summer TC season. A subjective assessment provides an indication of how well the models perform in each TC basin throughout the globe, and which basins can be used to determine possible changes in TC formation regions in a warmer climate. The analysis is necessarily succinct so that seven basins in twelve models can be examined. Consequently, basin performance was reduced to an assessment of two common problems specific to each basin. Basins that were not too adversely affected were included in the projection exercise. The North Indian basin was excluded because the mid-summer analysis period covers a lull in TC activity. Surprisingly, the North Atlantic basin also had to be excluded, because all twelve models failed the performance assessment. A slight poleward expansion in the western North Pacific and an expansion towards the Hawaiian Islands in the eastern North Pacific is plausible in the future, while a contraction in the TC formation regions in the eastern South Indian and western South Pacific basins would reduce the Australian region TC formation area. More than half the models were too active in the eastern South Pacific and South Atlantic basins. However, projections based on the remaining models suggest these basins will remain hostile for TC formation in the future. These southern hemisphere changes are consistent with existing projections of fewer southern hemisphere TCs in a future warming world

Future Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Frequency over the Western North Pacific Based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI Models

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Chi-Cherng Hong ◽  
Chih-Hua Tsou ◽  
Pang-Chi Hsu ◽  
Kuan-Chieh Chen ◽  
Hsin-Chien Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Energy Conversion ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The Future ◽  
Budget Equation ◽  
Upper Level

AbstractThe future changes in the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) under global warming remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated such changes using 20-km resolution HiRAM and MRI models, which can realistically simulate the TC activity in the present climate. We found that the mean intensity of TCs in the future (2075−2099) would increase by approximately 15%, along with an eastward shift of TC genesis location in response to the El-Niño like warming. However, the lifetime of future TCs would be shortened because the TCs tend to have more poleward genesis locations and move faster due to a stronger steering flow related to the strengthened WNP subtropical high in a warmer climate. In other words, the enhancement of TC intensity in future is not attributable to the duration of TC lifetime.To understand the processes responsible for the change in TC intensity in a warmer climate, we applied the budget equation of synoptic-scale eddy kinetic energy along the TC tracks in model simulations. The diagnostic results suggested that both the upper level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) and lower-level barotropical energy conversion (CK) contribute to the intensified TCs under global warming. The increased CE results from the enhancement of TC-related perturbations of temperature and vertical velocity over the subtropical WNP, whereas the increased CK mainly comes from synoptic-scale eddies interacting with enhanced zonal-wind convergence associated with seasonal mean and intraseasonal flows over Southeast China and the northwestern sector of WNP.

scholarly journals Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Warming Climate: Two Diverging Genesis Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (11) ◽  
pp. 4815-4834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Adam H. Sobel ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined using the Columbia Hazard model (CHAZ), a statistical–dynamical downscaling system, with environmental conditions taken from simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for both the historical period and a future scenario under the representative concentration pathway 8.5. Projections of individual global and basin TC frequency depend sensitively on the choice of moisture variable used in the tropical genesis cyclone index (TCGI) component of CHAZ. Simulations using column relative humidity show an increasing trend in the future, while those using saturation deficit show a decreasing trend, although both give similar results in the historical period. While the projected annual TC frequency is also sensitive to the choice of model used to provide the environmental conditions, the choice of humidity variable in the TCGI is more important. Changes in TC frequency directly affect the projected TCs’ tracks and the frequencies of strong storms on both basin and regional scales. This leads to large uncertainty in assessing regional and local storm hazards. The uncertainty here is fundamental and epistemic in nature. Increases in the fraction of major TCs, rapid intensification rate, and decreases in forward speed are insensitive to TC frequency, however. The present results are also consistent with prior studies in indicating that those TC events that do occur will, on average, be more destructive in the future because of the robustly projected increases in intensity.

Beyond Hurricane Sandy: What Might the Future Hold for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic?

2014 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radley M. Horton ◽  
Jiping Liu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

Coastal communities are beginning to understand that sea level rise is projected to dramatically increase the frequency of coastal flooding. However, deep uncertainty remains about how tropical cyclones may change in the future. The North Atlantic has historically been responsible for the majority of global tropical cyclone economic losses, with Hurricane Sandy's approximately USD$70 billion price tag providing a recent example. The North Atlantic has experienced an upward trend in both total tropical cyclones (maximum sustained winds > 18 m/s) and major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds > 50 m/s) in recent decades. While it remains unclear how much of this trend is related to anthropogenic warming, and how tropical cyclone risk may change in the future, the balance of evidence suggests that the strongest hurricanes may become more frequent and intense in the future, and that rainfall associated with tropical cyclones may increase as well. These projections, along with sea level rise and demographic trends, suggest vulnerability to tropical cyclones will increase in the future, thus requiring major coastal adaptation initiatives.

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham Torres ◽  
Russell Glazer ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Xuejie Gao ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

<p>Under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, simulations of tropical cyclones were performed using the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model 4 (RegCM4) at a spatial resolution of 25 km over four domains (Australasia, Central America, Western Pacific and South Asia). These simulations cover the 130-year period, 1970-2099, for two Representative Concentration Pathways, 2.6 (RCP2.6) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios and were driven by three General Circulation Models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). In these simulations, the potential changes in TC activity for future climate conditions over five areas of tropical cyclone formation (North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific, North Atlantic, Australasia and Eastern Pacific) are investigated, using an objective algorithm to identify and track them. The RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs are evaluated for the period of 1995–2014 by comparing them with the observed tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS); then the changes in two future periods (2041-2016 and 2080–2099), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014), are analyzed for RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs. Preliminary results show that RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs are capable of most of the features of the observed tropical cyclone climatology, and the future projections show an increase in the number of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions. These changes are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. On the other hand, the North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in the future storm rainfall rate and the frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones over almost all the domains. Our study shows robust and statistically significant responses, often, but not always, in line with previous studies. This implies that a robust assessment of tropical cyclone changes requires analyses of ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models capable of representing the response of different characteristics of different key atmospheric factors.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document