scholarly journals Planning for resilience of water networks under earthquake hazard

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-152
Author(s):  
S R Uma ◽  
Finn Scheele ◽  
Elizabeth Abbott ◽  
Jose Moratalla
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Damage Identification ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Water Networks ◽  
Water Network ◽  
Science Models ◽  
Hazard Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Water networks are vulnerable to earthquakes and failures of network components can result in a lack of availability of services, sometimes leading to relocation of the community. In New Zealand, there are statutory requirements for the water network providers to address the resilience of infrastructure assets. This is done by identifying and managing risks related to natural hazards and planning for appropriate financial provision to manage those risks. In addition to this, the impact from the Canterbury region earthquakes has accelerated the need for understanding the potential risk to critical infrastructure networks to minimise socio-economic impact. As such, there is a need for developing pragmatic approaches to deliver appropriate hazard and risk information to the stakeholders. Within the context of improving resilience for water networks, this study presents a transparent and staged approach to risk assessment by adopting three significant steps: (i) to define an earthquake hazard scenario for which the impact needs to be assessed and managed; (ii) to identify vulnerable parts of the network components; and (iii) to estimate likely outage time of services in the areas of interest. The above process is illustrated through a case study with water supply and wastewater networks of Rotorua Lakes Council by estimating ground motion intensities, damage identification and outage modelling affected by number of crews and preferred repair strategies. This case study sets an example by which other councils and/or water network managers could undertake risk assessment studies underpinned by science models and develop resilience management plans.

scholarly journals Impact probability under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (11-12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Tardioli ◽  
Davide Farnocchia ◽  
Massimiliano Vasile ◽  
Steve R. Chesley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Statistical Distributions ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Parametric Families ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study, we consider Apophis’ risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 5\times 10^{-5}$$ IP ≤ 5 × 10 - 5 for the 2036 keyhole and $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 1.6\times 10^{-5}$$ IP ≤ 1.6 × 10 - 5 for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and the Environmental Impact of Industrial Projects in Malaysia: A case study of SAMUR, Sabah

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Ezyana Anyzah Marmaya ◽  
Rohana Mahbub
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Industrial Projects ◽  
Negative Environmental Impact ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
The Impact

To ensure high performance of projects, risk factors and their impact towards the environment need to be addressed during and after the construction phase. This research aims to assess the risk factors and the impact of industrial projects to the environment and surrounding areas. The research employs multi-method strategies: this case study includes several interviews, observations, analysis of project documents and questionnaires distributed among the occupants living in the surrounding area. The results of the research indicated that the project is perceived to have negative environmental impact measured under ecosystem, natural resources, and public impact.Keywords: risk assessment, risk factors, environmental impact, industrial projects, MalaysiaISSN: 2398-4287© 2017. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA by e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BYNC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia.

scholarly journals Aggregated Risk Assessment and Survey for Risk Reduction in Oil Terminals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12169
Author(s):  
Robertas Alzbutas ◽  
Mindaugas Vaisnoras ◽  
Inga Saruniene ◽  
Ricardas Krikstolaitis ◽  
Mindaugas Valincius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
The Impact

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

Identify the Bottleneck of Water Network by Using Graph Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 4794-4797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ren Jie Shen ◽  
Qing Gang Jia ◽  
Yan Yan Liang ◽  
Jing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Graph Theory ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
System Integration ◽  
Water System ◽  
Water Networks ◽  
Water Network ◽  
Bottleneck Identification

Water system integration which aims on the bottleneck of the water network is the only effective method. Therefore, it is essential and significant to study the bottleneck identification of water networks. In this paper, the definition and fundamental characteristics of the bottleneck about flow rate in water network are given. The graph theory was engaged to identify the bottleneck of water network. A case study is used to show the method.

Uncertain Hazards: Environmental Activists and Scientific Proof. By Sylvia Noble Tesh. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000. 192p. $35.00 cloth, $16.95 paper.

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 834-835
Author(s):  
Richard A. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Social Movements ◽  
Environmental Science ◽  
Environmental Movement ◽  
Case Study Approach ◽  
Cornell University ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Science And Risk ◽  
The Impact

Uncertain Hazards is an ambitious book, in two respects. First, it tackles an important issue for political science as well as sociology and history, namely, the impact that social movements have on reshaping the societies in which they mobilize. Second, in adopting a case study approach to this issue, the author explores the development of the modern environmental movement and its purported reframing or hegemonic reversal of environmental science and risk assessment in America. In effect, this volume is two separate but related studies. Indeed, Sylvia Noble Tesh suggests as much when she notes in her acknowledgments that her “theme shifted as the book took shape” (p. xi).

scholarly journals Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 3135-3160
Author(s):  
Stefan Oberndorfer ◽  
Philip Sander ◽  
Sven Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mountain hazard risk analysis for transport infrastructure is regularly based on deterministic approaches. Standard risk assessment approaches for roads need a variety of variables and data for risk computation, however without considering potential uncertainty in the input data. Consequently, input data needed for risk assessment are normally processed as discrete mean values without scatter or as an individual deterministic value from expert judgement if no statistical data are available. To overcome this gap, we used a probabilistic approach to analyse the effect of input data uncertainty on the results, taking a mountain road in the Eastern European Alps as a case study. The uncertainty of the input data are expressed with potential bandwidths using two different distribution functions. The risk assessment included risk for persons, property risk and risk for non-operational availability exposed to a multi-hazard environment (torrent processes, snow avalanches and rockfall). The study focuses on the epistemic uncertainty of the risk terms (exposure situations, vulnerability factors and monetary values), ignoring potential sources of variation in the hazard analysis. As a result, reliable quantiles of the calculated probability density distributions attributed to the aggregated road risk due to the impact of multiple mountain hazards were compared to the deterministic outcome from the standard guidelines on road safety. The results based on our case study demonstrate that with common deterministic approaches risk might be underestimated in comparison to a probabilistic risk modelling setup, mainly due to epistemic uncertainties of the input data. The study provides added value to further develop standardized road safety guidelines and may therefore be of particular importance for road authorities and political decision-makers.

scholarly journals Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart R. Mead ◽  
Christina Magill ◽  
Vincent Lemiale ◽  
Jean-Claude Thouret ◽  
Mahesh Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Lahars are volcanic flows containing a mixture of fluid and sediment which have the potential to cause significant damage to buildings, critical infrastructure and human life. The extent of this damage is controlled by properties of the lahar, location of elements at risk and susceptibility of these elements to the lahar. Here we focus on understanding lahar-induced building damage. Quantification of building damage can be difficult due to the complexity of lahar behaviour (hazard), varying number and type of buildings exposed to the lahar (exposure) and the uncertain susceptibility of buildings to lahar impacts (vulnerability). In this paper, we quantify and examine the importance of lahar hazard, exposure and vulnerability in determining building damage with reference to a case study in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Numerical modelling is used to investigate lahar properties that are important in determining the inundation area and forces applied to buildings. Building vulnerability is quantified through the development of critical depth–pressure curves based on the ultimate bending moment of masonry structures. In the case study area, results suggest that building strength plays a minor role in determining overall building losses in comparison to the effects of building exposure and hydraulic characteristics of the lahar.

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