scholarly journals Impact probability under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (11-12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Tardioli ◽  
Davide Farnocchia ◽  
Massimiliano Vasile ◽  
Steve R. Chesley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Orbital Evolution ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Statistical Distributions ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Parametric Families ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study, we consider Apophis’ risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 5\times 10^{-5}$$ IP ≤ 5 × 10 - 5 for the 2036 keyhole and $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 1.6\times 10^{-5}$$ IP ≤ 1.6 × 10 - 5 for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Evaluating the efficacy of technical measures: a case study of selection device legislation in the UK Crangon crangon (brown shrimp) fishery

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom L. Catchpole ◽  
Andrew S. Revill ◽  
James Innes ◽  
Sean Pascoe
Keyword(s):  
Brown Shrimp ◽  
Crangon Crangon ◽  
Shrimp Fishery ◽  
The North ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Technical Measures

Abstract Catchpole, T. L., Revill, A. S., Innes, J., and Pascoe, S. 2008. Evaluating the efficacy of technical measures: a case study of selection device legislation in the UK Crangon crangon (brown shrimp) fishery. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 267–275. Bycatch reduction devices are being introduced into a wide range of fisheries, with shrimp and prawn fisheries particularly targeted owing to the heavy discarding common in these fisheries. Although studies are often undertaken to estimate the impact of a technical measure on the fishery before implementation, rarely have the impacts been assessed ex post. Here, the efficacy of the UK legislation pertaining to the use of sievenets in the North Sea Crangon crangon fishery is assessed. Three impacts were evaluated: on fisher behaviour (social), on the level of bycatch (biological), and on vessel profitability (economic). An apparent high level of compliance by skippers was identified despite a low level of enforcement. The estimated reduction in fleet productivity following the introduction of the legislation was 14%, equalling the mean loss of Crangon landings when using sievenets calculated from catch comparison trawls. Sievenets did reduce the unnecessary capture of unwanted marine organisms, but were least effective at reducing 0-group plaice, which make up the largest component of the bycatch. Clearly the legislation has had an effect in the desired direction, but it does not address sufficiently the bycatch issue in the Crangon fishery.

Professional Identity

2020 ◽  
pp. 227-246
Author(s):  
Aaron Ackerley
Keyword(s):  
Professional Identity ◽  
Cultural Changes ◽  
Newspaper Industry ◽  
Fourth Estate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
British Press ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Training

This chapter surveys changing notions of professional identity in the twentieth-century British press. The term ‘journalist’ is highly contested, covering a wide range of figures with different forms of experience and training as well as a wide range of roles within and beyond news organisations. Journalism has also lacked the clearly defined rules of practice and established pathways into the occupation evident in other careers that are classed as professions, such as medicine and law. By exploring key topics such as continuities from the nineteenth-century press, the rise of professionalism and journalists’ associations and unions, the myth of the ‘Fourth Estate’ and struggles over press regulation, and the impact of digitisation, this chapter explains how notions of professional identity within journalism have changed in response to wider social and cultural changes and changes within the newspaper industry itself. These topics are also explored in short case study, focused on the Guardian.

scholarly journals Pollution Characteristics of Microplastics in Soils in Southeastern Suburbs of Baoding City, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan Du ◽  
Handong Liang ◽  
Zhanping Li ◽  
Jie Gong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Ferrous Metal ◽  
Reference Method ◽  
Negative Ion ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Environmental Media ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Water Ecosystems ◽  
The Impact

Microplastics (MPs) are emerging pollutants that exist in different environmental media. Because of their wide range and large potential environmental hazards, they have attracted widespread attention in recent years. At present, the research on MP is mostly concentrated on the water ecosystems, and the impact on soil ecosystems is less studied. In this study, 12 typical soil samples from southeastern suburbs of Baoding city were investigated and characterized by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) combined with mass high resolution mode and positive and negative ion imaging mode. Four types of MPs, poly (propylene) (PP), poly (vinyl chloride) (PVC), poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET), and poly (amide 6) (PA6), were quickly identified, of which PET and PA6 accounted for the largest proportion of both up to 30.2%; the particle size of the obtained MPs ranged from 0 to 35 μm, of which the proportion of <10 μm MPs was more than 26.3%, while that of 20–25 μm and 25–35 μm MPs was relatively small (17.83% and 9.3%, respectively). Risk assessment results of the MP in the soil showed that the risk level of MPs in the non-ferrous metal industrial parks and in concentrated with small workshops areas is relatively high, and attention should be paid to such areas. In addition, the study provides a reference method for the investigation and risk assessment of MPs in terrestrial soils, coastal beaches, and sediments.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Characterizing the Heat Loss Coefficient through On-Board Monitoring: A Case Study Analysis

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 3322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marieline Senave ◽  
Staf Roels ◽  
Stijn Verbeke ◽  
Evi Lambie ◽  
Dirk Saelens
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Heat Loss ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Loss Coefficient ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Board Monitoring ◽  
The Impact

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the development of an approach to characterize the as-built heat loss coefficient (HLC) of buildings based on a combination of on-board monitoring (OBM) and data-driven modeling. OBM is hereby defined as the monitoring of the energy consumption and interior climate of in-use buildings via non-intrusive sensors. The main challenge faced by researchers is the identification of the required input data and the appropriate data analysis techniques to assess the HLC of specific building types, with a certain degree of accuracy and/or within a budget constraint. A wide range of characterization techniques can be imagined, going from simplified steady-state models applied to smart energy meter data, to advanced dynamic analysis models identified on full OBM data sets that are further enriched with geometric info, survey results, or on-site inspections. This paper evaluates the extent to which these techniques result in different HLC estimates. To this end, it performs a sensitivity analysis of the characterization outcome for a case study dwelling. Thirty-five unique input data packages are defined using a tree structure. Subsequently, four different data analysis methods are applied on these sets: the steady-state average, Linear Regression and Energy Signature method, and the dynamic AutoRegressive with eXogenous input model (ARX). In addition to the sensitivity analysis, the paper compares the HLC values determined via OBM characterization to the theoretically calculated value, and explores the factors contributing to the observed discrepancies. The results demonstrate that deviations up to 26.9% can occur on the characterized as-built HLC, depending on the amount of monitoring data and prior information used to establish the interior temperature of the dwelling. The approach used to represent the internal and solar heat gains also proves to have a significant influence on the HLC estimate. The impact of the selected input data is higher than that of the applied data analysis method.

Agent of Opportunity Risk Mitigation: People, Engineering, and Security Efficacy

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 291-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret E. Graham ◽  
Michael G. Tunik ◽  
Brenna M. Farmer ◽  
Carly Bendzans ◽  
Aileen M. McCrillis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Front Door ◽  
Security Controls ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Access Controls ◽  
Survey Interviews ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTBackground: Agents of opportunity (AO) are potentially harmful biological, chemical, radiological, and pharmaceutical substances commonly used for health care delivery and research. AOs are present in all academic medical centers (AMC), creating vulnerability in the health care sector; AO attributes and dissemination methods likely predict risk; and AMCs are inadequately secured against a purposeful AO dissemination, with limited budgets and competing priorities. We explored health care workers' perceptions of AMC security and the impact of those perceptions on AO risk.Methods: Qualitative methods (survey, interviews, and workshops) were used to collect opinions from staff working in a medical school and 4 AMC-affiliated hospitals concerning AOs and the risk to hospital infrastructure associated with their uncontrolled presence. Secondary to this goal, staff perception concerning security, or opinions about security behaviors of others, were extracted, analyzed, and grouped into themes.Results: We provide a framework for depicting the interaction of staff behavior and access control engineering, including the tendency of staff to “defeat” inconvenient access controls. In addition, 8 security themes emerged: staff security behavior is a significant source of AO risk; the wide range of opinions about “open” front-door policies among AMC staff illustrates a disparity of perceptions about the need for security; interviewees expressed profound skepticism concerning the effectiveness of front-door access controls; an AO risk assessment requires reconsideration of the security levels historically assigned to areas such as the loading dock and central distribution sites, where many AOs are delivered and may remain unattended for substantial periods of time; researchers' view of AMC security is influenced by the ongoing debate within the scientific community about the wisdom of engaging in bioterrorism research; there was no agreement about which areas of the AMC should be subject to stronger access controls; security personnel play dual roles of security and customer service, creating the negative perception that neither role is done well; and budget was described as an important factor in explaining the state of security controls.Conclusions: We determined that AMCs seeking to reduce AO risk should assess their institutionally unique AO risks, understand staff security perceptions, and install access controls that are responsive to the staff's tendency to defeat them. The development of AO attribute fact sheets is desirable for AO risk assessment; new funding and administrative or legislative tools to improve AMC security are required; and security practices and methods that are convenient and effective should be engineered.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:291-299)

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and the Environmental Impact of Industrial Projects in Malaysia: A case study of SAMUR, Sabah

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Ezyana Anyzah Marmaya ◽  
Rohana Mahbub
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Industrial Projects ◽  
Negative Environmental Impact ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
The Impact

To ensure high performance of projects, risk factors and their impact towards the environment need to be addressed during and after the construction phase. This research aims to assess the risk factors and the impact of industrial projects to the environment and surrounding areas. The research employs multi-method strategies: this case study includes several interviews, observations, analysis of project documents and questionnaires distributed among the occupants living in the surrounding area. The results of the research indicated that the project is perceived to have negative environmental impact measured under ecosystem, natural resources, and public impact.Keywords: risk assessment, risk factors, environmental impact, industrial projects, MalaysiaISSN: 2398-4287© 2017. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA by e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BYNC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia.

scholarly journals DAMPAK E-MEDIA TERHADAP KENAKALAN PERILAKU SEKSUAL PADA REMAJA DI BATULICIN

Jurnal Ecopsy ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robby Adrianie ◽  
Hemy Heryati Anward ◽  
Neka Erlyani
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Behavior ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Genital Organ ◽  
Descriptive Case Study ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Media Data

ABSTRAK Remaja dengan berbagai masalahnya dapat memunculkan berbagai perilaku berupa kenakalan remaja. Kenakalan remaja mengacu kepada suatu rentang perilaku yang sangat luas, salah satu bentuk kenakalan remaja adalah kenakalan perilaku seksual. Perkembangan e-media seperti terbukanya informasi memungkinkan mengakses berbagai macam informasi pornografi, yang tidak layak dikonsumsi oleh remaja. Bentuk informasi ini sulit dikontrol dan mudah didapat bahkan dikota kecil seperti Batulicin. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui dampak e-media terhadap kenakalan perilaku seksual pada remaja di Batulicin dan mengetahui bentuk-bentuk kenakalan perilaku seksual akibat e-media pada remaja di Batulicin. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kualitatif, dengan teknik studi kasus deskriptif yang bertujuan mengetahui dampak dan bentuk-bentuk e-media terhadap kenakalan perilaku seksual pada remaja di Batulicin. Subjek penelitian adalah 2 orang remaja SMA di Batulicin dan 1 orang remaja MA di Batulicin, berusia 15 sampai 21 tahun dan memiliki akses untuk menggunakan e-media. Teknik pengumpulan data penelitian ini menggunakan teknik observasi, wawancara, dokumentasi dan tes grafis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ketiga subjek telah melakukan hubungan seksual diluar nikah. Penyebabnya karena beberapa faktor internal dan eksternal. Tidak adanya norma yang dimiliki untuk menyaring informasi menjadikan subjek terjerumus dan melakukan kenakalan perilaku seksual. Informasi yang didapat melalui teman dan e-media seperti HP, laptop dan TV untuk memutar video porno. Bentuk kenakalan perilaku seksual ketiga subjek adalah berpegangan tangan, necking (berciuman sampai daerah dada), meraba payudara dan alat kelamin, petting (saling menempelkan alat kelamin), membaca atau menonton berbau pornografi, melakukan hubungan seksual. Kata kunci: E-Media, Kenakalan Perilaku Seksual, Remaja ABSTRACT  Adolescents with a variety of problems can bring a variety of behaviors such as delinquency. Juvenile delinquency refers to a very wide range of behaviors, one of which is sexual behavior delinquency. The development of e-media information such as the open information enable the access to various kinds of pornography, which is not suitable for adolescents. This kind of information is difficult to control and easy to obtain even in a small town like Batulicin. The purpose of this study was to find out the impact of e-media on sexual behavior delinquency, and the forms of sexual behavior delinquency as a result of e-media in adolescents in Batulicin. The method used in this study was a qualitative approach, with a descriptive case study technique aimed at knowing the impact and forms of e-media on sexual behavior delinquency in adolescents in Batulicin. The subjects were 2 adolescents in SMA at Batulicin and 1 adolescent in MA at Batulicin, aged 15 to 21 years and having an access to e-media. Data were collected using techniques of observation, interview, documentation and graphical test. The results showed that all three subjects had sexual relations outside marriage. It was caused by several internal and external factors. The absence of norms to filter information made the subject fall in sexual behavior delinquency. The information were obtained through friends and e-media such as HP, laptop and TV playing porn videos. The forms of sexual behavior delinquency in three subjects were holding hands, necking (kissing up to the chest), touching breast and genital organ, petting, reading or watching pornography, and sexual intercourse. Keywords: E-Media, Sexual Behavior Delinquency, Adolescent

scholarly journals Higher education institutions as a driver of sustainable social development: Polish experience for Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inna Khovrak
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Higher Education Institutions ◽  
Environmentally Friendly ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
Environmental Status ◽  
Polish Experience ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Economic Technology ◽  
The Impact

The basis for sustainable and environmentally friendly development is gradually becoming aware of the importance of working more ethically and transparently and in a more humanistic way, as well as addressing the needs of people and society. In this case, the key challenge for higher education institutions (HEIs) is to train the conscious and responsible citizens who can take care of the country’s future. This article focuses on comparing the ability of HEIs in Poland and Ukraine to promote sustainable development (SD) by implementing the concept of social responsibility (SR). The research is based on the methods of statistical analysis, sociological survey, case study, abstract-logical, tabular and graphical method. The paper argues that HEIs have a wide range of tools to promote SD. These tools should be divided into three groups, namely: 1) including SD issues in educational programs; 2) developing knowledge and solutions for SD; 3) creation and participation in SR initiatives. The proposed mechanism of the impact of HEIs on SD through the implementation of the concept of SR will allow HEIs to take an active part in the life of the region and the country, namely: identify the needs, engage the stakeholders, facilitate the interaction, disseminate the effective practices, and develop SD strategies. The practical value of the obtained results is that the implementation of SR initiative by HEIs will promote the environmentally friendly development of the country and regions. As a result, it will increase the impact of HEIs on economic, technology and cultural development, human capital formation, solving social problems, building civil society, improving the environmental status.

scholarly journals Aggregated Risk Assessment and Survey for Risk Reduction in Oil Terminals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12169
Author(s):  
Robertas Alzbutas ◽  
Mindaugas Vaisnoras ◽  
Inga Saruniene ◽  
Ricardas Krikstolaitis ◽  
Mindaugas Valincius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
The Impact

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

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