scholarly journals Cluster Analysis on Dengue Incidence and Weather Data Using K-Medoids and Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Algorithms (Case Study: Spread of Dengue in the DKI Jakarta Province)

2022 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-486
Author(s):  
Cindy Cindy ◽  
Cynthia Cynthia ◽  
Valentino Vito ◽  
Devvi Sarwinda ◽  
Bevina Desjwiandra Handari ◽  
...  

In Indonesia, Dengue incidence tends to increase every year but has been fluctuating in recent years. The potential for Dengue outbreaks in DKI Jakarta, the capital city, deserves serious attention. Weather factors are suspected of being associated with the incidence of Dengue in Indonesia. This research used weather and Dengue incidence data for five regions of DKI Jakarta, Indonesia, from December 30, 2008, to January 2, 2017. The study used a clustering approach on time-series and non-time-series data using K-Medoids and Fuzzy C-Means Clustering. The clustering results for the non-time-series data showed a positive correlation between the number of Dengue incidents and both average relative humidity and amount of rainfall. However, Dengue incidence and average temperature were negatively correlated. Moreover, the clustering implementation on the time-series data showed that rainfall patterns most closely resembled those of Dengue incidence. Therefore, rainfall can be used to estimate Dengue incidence. Both results suggest that the government could utilize weather data to predict possible spikes in DHF incidence, especially when entering the rainy season and alert the public to greater probability of a Dengue outbreak.

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-145
Author(s):  
Yuafanda Kholfi Hartono ◽  
Sumarto Eka Putra

Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) is a bilateral free-trade agreement between Indonesia and Japan that has been started from July 1st, 2008. After more than a decade of its implementation, there is a question that we need to be addressed: Does liberalization of IJ-EPA make Indonesia’s export to Japan increase? This question is important since the government gives a trade-off by giving lower tariff for certain commodities agreed in agreement to increase export. Using Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis based on time-series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), this article found that the impact of IJ-EPA decreased for Indonesia export to Japan. Furthermore, this paper proposed some potential commodities that can increase the effectiveness of this FTA. The importance of this topic is that Indonesia will maximize the benefit in implementing of agreement that they made from the third biggest destination export of their total export value, so it will be in line with the government's goal to expand export market to solve current account deficit. In addition, the method that used in this paper can be implemented to other countries so that they can maximize the effect of Free Trade Agreement, especially for their export.


Author(s):  
Sawsan Morkos Gharghory

An enhanced architecture of recurrent neural network based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is suggested in this paper for predicting the microclimate inside the greenhouse through its time series data. The microclimate inside the greenhouse largely affected by the external weather variations and it has a great impact on the greenhouse crops and its production. Therefore, it is a massive importance to predict the microclimate inside greenhouse as a preceding stage for accurate design of a control system that could fulfill the requirements of suitable environment for the plants and crop managing. The LSTM network is trained and tested by the temperatures and relative humidity data measured inside the greenhouse utilizing the mathematical greenhouse model with the outside weather data over 27 days. To evaluate the prediction accuracy of the suggested LSTM network, different measurements, such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), are calculated and compared to those of conventional networks in references. The simulation results of LSTM network for forecasting the temperature and relative humidity inside greenhouse outperform over those of the traditional methods. The prediction results of temperature and humidity inside greenhouse in terms of RMSE approximately are 0.16 and 0.62 and in terms of MAE are 0.11 and 0.4, respectively, for both of them.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-144
Author(s):  
Michael Takudzwa Pasara ◽  
◽  
Michael Zuze ◽  

The study applied the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique on quarterly time-series data to analyze if remittances can boost tax revenue in Zimbabwe. The main challenge faced in Zimbabwe is the insufficient tax revenues to finance growing public spending needs. Results indicate that the share of remittances both in the current and lagged period significantly influenced income tax revenue and the volume of manufacturing. Trade openness was found to be insignificant. Similar results were also observed for the variables when value-added tax to total revenue was the dependent variable. When lagged variables were taken into account, results showedthat only remittances were significant. Thus, increased remittance inflows have significant potential to generate more taxes for the government through income and consumption taxes. The study recommends the creation of platforms, which stimulate and attract more remittances, such as reducing costs of sending remittances through formal channels. Secondly, good governance and quality institutions provide appropriate economic environment and growth policies. Economic growth fosters increased and sustainable tax due to an increased tax base.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Ali Alqahtani

The use of deep learning has grown increasingly in recent years, thereby becoming a much-discussed topic across a diverse range of fields, especially in computer vision, text mining, and speech recognition. Deep learning methods have proven to be robust in representation learning and attained extraordinary achievement. Their success is primarily due to the ability of deep learning to discover and automatically learn feature representations by mapping input data into abstract and composite representations in a latent space. Deep learning’s ability to deal with high-level representations from data has inspired us to make use of learned representations, aiming to enhance unsupervised clustering and evaluate the characteristic strength of internal representations to compress and accelerate deep neural networks.Traditional clustering algorithms attain a limited performance as the dimensionality in-creases. Therefore, the ability to extract high-level representations provides beneficial components that can support such clustering algorithms. In this work, we first present DeepCluster, a clustering approach embedded in a deep convolutional auto-encoder. We introduce two clustering methods, namely DCAE-Kmeans and DCAE-GMM. The DeepCluster allows for data points to be grouped into their identical cluster, in the latent space, in a joint-cost function by simultaneously optimizing the clustering objective and the DCAE objective, producing stable representations, which is appropriate for the clustering process. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations of proposed methods are reported, showing the efficiency of deep clustering on several public datasets in comparison to the previous state-of-the-art methods.Following this, we propose a new version of the DeepCluster model to include varying degrees of discriminative power. This introduces a mechanism which enables the imposition of regularization techniques and the involvement of a supervision component. The key idea of our approach is to distinguish the discriminatory power of numerous structures when searching for a compact structure to form robust clusters. The effectiveness of injecting various levels of discriminatory powers into the learning process is investigated alongside the exploration and analytical study of the discriminatory power obtained through the use of two discriminative attributes: data-driven discriminative attributes with the support of regularization techniques, and supervision discriminative attributes with the support of the supervision component. An evaluation is provided on four different datasets.The use of neural networks in various applications is accompanied by a dramatic increase in computational costs and memory requirements. Making use of the characteristic strength of learned representations, we propose an iterative pruning method that simultaneously identifies the critical neurons and prunes the model during training without involving any pre-training or fine-tuning procedures. We introduce a majority voting technique to compare the activation values among neurons and assign a voting score to evaluate their importance quantitatively. This mechanism effectively reduces model complexity by eliminating the less influential neurons and aims to determine a subset of the whole model that can represent the reference model with much fewer parameters within the training process. Empirically, we demonstrate that our pruning method is robust across various scenarios, including fully-connected networks (FCNs), sparsely-connected networks (SCNs), and Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), using two public datasets.Moreover, we also propose a novel framework to measure the importance of individual hidden units by computing a measure of relevance to identify the most critical filters and prune them to compress and accelerate CNNs. Unlike existing methods, we introduce the use of the activation of feature maps to detect valuable information and the essential semantic parts, with the aim of evaluating the importance of feature maps, inspired by novel neural network interpretability. A majority voting technique based on the degree of alignment between a se-mantic concept and individual hidden unit representations is utilized to evaluate feature maps’ importance quantitatively. We also propose a simple yet effective method to estimate new convolution kernels based on the remaining crucial channels to accomplish effective CNN compression. Experimental results show the effectiveness of our filter selection criteria, which outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.To conclude, we present a comprehensive, detailed review of time-series data analysis, with emphasis on deep time-series clustering (DTSC), and a founding contribution to the area of applying deep clustering to time-series data by presenting the first case study in the context of movement behavior clustering utilizing the DeepCluster method. The results are promising, showing that the latent space encodes sufficient patterns to facilitate accurate clustering of movement behaviors. Finally, we identify state-of-the-art and present an outlook on this important field of DTSC from five important perspectives.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Dwi Anggraeni ◽  
Sri Maryani ◽  
Suseno Ariadhy

Poverty is a major problem in a country. The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty. The main problem faced in poverty alleviation is the large number of people living below the poverty line. Therefore, this study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the next three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation. The method used in this study is a one-parameter linear double exponential smoothing from Brown. The software used in this research is Zaitun Time Series and Microsoft Excel. The steps taken are determining the forecasting objectives, plotting time series data, determining the appropriate method, determining the optimum parameter value, calculating the single exponential smoothing value, calculating double exponential smoothing value, calculate the smoothing constant value, calculate the trend coefficient value and perform forecasting. Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with MAPE value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance. The forecast value of the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for 2021 is Rp. 396,516, in 2022 it is Rp. 417,818, and in 2023 it is Rp. 439,120.


2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Riwi Sumantyo ◽  
Puji Lestari

The study on the effect of fuel subsidies toward oil import is a controversial topicdiscussions. This study will explore the effect of fuel subsidies on oil import by addingseveral independent variables, consist of; the number of vehichles, the exchange rateand inflation. Data use time series data from 1980-2013. The tool of analyze is OrdinaryLeast Squares Method (OLS).Based on the results show that the simultaneous testexplains that the fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, the exchange rate, and inflationhave a significant effect on oil import. However partially, the variables of fuel subsidies,the number of vehichles, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effecton oil import. Inflation does not affect on oil import. The coefficient of determinationuses Adjusted R-square test is about 98%. The implication of this study is governmentscan increase oil production Indonesia. The government should facilitate the licensing ofinvestment and rejuvenate the old oil wells. It aims to reduce Indonesia dependence onoil import so that it can save foreign exchange reserves.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Dhanya Sai Das ◽  
R Govindasamy

Aquaculture and fisheries emerged as an important source of food, protein, nutrition, livelihood and employment for the majority of the rural population. The fisheries sector has registered a sustainable and astounding growth rate over the last decade. The sector offers an attractive and promising future for employment, livelihood and food security. The study is based on the available secondary data from different aspects of fishery statistics published in Handbook on Fisheries Statistics 2020 by the Government of India and other related articles. Data for the time series analysis was taken from 2001-02 to 2017-18. It is found that the world per capita apparent consumption of fish has been increased by 10.4 kg from the 1960s (i.e., 9.9 kg) to 2016 (i.e., 20.30 kg). By analysing the time-series data, it is evident that the total fish production, including both marines and inland, has shown an astounding growth with a Compound Growth Rate of 4.58. The regression equation was Y = 5.182X – 12267, R2 value was 0.9414 where Y is the total fish production (dependent variable) and X is the total fish seed production (independent variable). There exists a positive relationship between fish seed and fish production in the country. It can be concluded that aquaculture plays a significant role in the country’s GDP rate and food security.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.


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