Rückkehr zum „divided government“, aber die „blaue Welle“ bleibt auf halbem Wege stecken: Die US-Kongresswahlen vom 6. November 2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 810-829
Author(s):  
Michael Kolkmann
Keyword(s):  
African Americans ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Divided Government ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

The 2018 Congressional elections ended with an ambivalent result for both the Democrats and Republicans . The turnout recorded the best result in almost a century . The Democrats were able to recapture a significant majority in the U .S . House of Representatives by winning particularly among white and female voters while solidifying their support among Democrats-leaning groups like African-Americans and Hispanics . The Republicans were not only able to defend their slim majority in the U .S . Senate but even increased their majority by two seats . The current 116th Congress, especially the House of Representatives, represents the most diverse make-up in history . At the same time, it is one of the politically least experienced . Under the current conditions of divided government an intensified confrontation between the Democrats in the House of Representatives and President Trump can be expected . Moreover, the forthcoming 2020 presidential election already casts its shadows . [ZParl, vol . 50 (2019), no . 4, pp . 810 - 829]

The life of the parties: Party activists and the 2016 presidential election

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882098863
Author(s):  
Rosalyn Cooperman ◽  
Gregory Shufeldt ◽  
Kimberly Conger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Party Activists ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump secured their respective party’s 2016 nominations only after raucous, spirited debates among delegates at the start of each party convention. Groups and their preferred candidates behaved consistently with the policy demanders view of parties, which identifies parties as comprised of coalitions of groups with strong policy preferences that negotiate with one another for influence in the party decision-making and policy process. Using the 2016 Convention Delegate Study, the longest standing survey of Democratic and Republican Party activists, we examine intra-party groups as new delegates are folded into the framework along with returning delegates. We assess how the theory of parties as comprised of policy-demander groups works in a context of high external party polarization. The competition between these groups to recast their party in its preferred image in the absence of a standard party bearer for either party holds important implications for Democrats and Republicans in future presidential and congressional elections.

It’s their fault: Partisan attribution bias and its association with voting intentions

2021 ◽  
pp. 136843022199008
Author(s):  
Ethan Zell ◽  
Christopher A. Stockus ◽  
Michael J. Bernstein
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Opposing Party ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Attribution Bias ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Voting Intentions

This research examined how people explain major outcomes of political consequence (e.g., economic growth, rising inequality). We argue that people attribute positive outcomes more and negative outcomes less to their own political party than to an opposing party. We conducted two studies, one before the 2016 U.S. presidential election ( N = 244) and another before the 2020 election ( N = 249 registered voters), that examined attributions across a wide array of outcomes. As predicted, a robust partisan attribution bias emerged in both studies. Although the bias was largely equivalent among Democrats and Republicans, it was magnified among those with more extreme political ideology. Further, the bias predicted unique variance in voting intentions and significantly mediated the link between political ideology and voting. In sum, these data suggest that partisan allegiances systemically bias attributions in a group-favoring direction. We discuss implications of these findings for emerging research on political social cognition.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

The Lost Sexenio: Vicente Fox and the New Politics of Economic Reform in Mexico

2005 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 135-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Pastor ◽  
Carol Wise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
State Policies ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Divided Government ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Middle Ground ◽  
New Politics ◽  
Income Inequalities

AbstractThe 2000 presidential election of opposition candidate Vicente Fox signaled an end to seven decades of Mexico's single-party regime and seemed to herald the advent of truly competitive politics. But by 2003, economic reform had largely stalled, and Fox's party suffered a historically unprecedented midterm loss in the congress. This article analyzes the underpinnings of policy gridlock in the Fox administration. Fox inherited the need for microeconomic restructuring and increased competitiveness, more innovative and pragmatic state policies, the need to pay attention to the country's sharp income inequalities, and the challenge of crafting a political strategy that could build a middle ground and foster policy consensus. With his party's minority standing in the congress, Fox was constrained from the start by divided government. But more effective statecraft and coalition building would have helped. These will be essential elements for the success of any post-Fox regime.

scholarly journals A turbulent time: government sources post-2016 presidential election

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-142
Author(s):  
Alicia Kubas
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Academic Librarians ◽  
The Political ◽  
Government Information ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Depth Interviews

Purpose Since the 2016 presidential election, hyper-partisanship has become a regular facet of the political landscape with Democrats and Republicans in increasing conflict. The purpose of this paper is to determine if perception of government sources related to trust and credibility has changed since the 2016 election and if the experiences and strategies of librarians who teach or consult about government information has changed in response to this environment. Design/methodology/approach A 24-question survey was distributed to garner qualitative and quantitative responses from librarians who teach or consult about government information in an academic environment. A total of 122 responses were used for analysis. Findings Academic librarians are seeing more concern from patrons about disappearing online government information and wider distrust of government information. Librarians also noticed that the political leanings of students color their perspective around government sources and that librarians also need to keep their political beliefs in check. Respondents emphasized a need for more government literacy and information literacy topics when discussing evaluation of government sources. Research limitations/implications The data collection only included responses from academic librarians. Further research could include in-depth interviews and look at experiences in various library types. Originality/value With the timeliness of this topic, there has not been an in-depth investigation into how the Trump administration has changed user trust and perception of government sources from the librarian’s point of view. This paper continues the conversation about how librarians can address the growing distrust of government information and give us insight into the effects of a turbulent political climate on government sources.

The Impact of Political System and Culture on Political Advertising

2005 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Sik Kim
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Advertising ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Daily Newspapers ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

This study examines the impact of political system and culture on political advertising of the United States, Japan and Korea. The population of this study was defined as all political ads appearing in major daily newspapers during the 1963–1997 presidential election campaigns in the U.S. and Korea, and the House of Representatives' election campaigns in Japan. A total of 695 political newspaper ads were content-analyzed in this study. Results of the study showed that there were differences in types, valences and appeals of political advertising of the U.S., Japan and Korea. Also, discussions based on study results showed mixed and intertwined arguments against or for the expectations for this study.

The 2016 Election: Like 1888 but not 1876 or 2000

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Barthélémy ◽  
Mathieu Martin ◽  
Ashley Piggins
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
House Size

ABSTRACTDonald J. Trump won the 2016 US presidential election with fewer popular votes than Hillary R. Clinton. This is the fourth time this has happened, the others being 1876, 1888, and 2000. In earlier work, we analyzed these elections (and others) and showed how the electoral winner can often depend on the size of the US House of Representatives. This work was inspired by Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003, 721–5) in their paper, “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size.” A sufficiently larger House would have given electoral victories to the popular vote winner in both 1876 and 2000. An exception is the election of 1888. We show that Trump’s victory in 2016 is like Harrison’s in 1888 and unlike Hayes’s in 1876 and Bush’s in 2000. This article updates our previous work to include the 2016 election. It also draws attention to some of the anomalous behavior that can arise under the Electoral College.

The Vanishing Marginals and Electoral Responsiveness

1992 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Ansolabehere ◽  
David Brady ◽  
Morris Fiorina
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Political System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Divided Government ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
The Us ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Safe House

Nearly two decades ago researchers pointed out the sharp decline in marginal districts in elections for the US House of Representatives. That observation led to an outpouring of research describing the electoral changes, explaining their bases and speculating about their consequences for the larger political system. Recently Gary Jacobson has offered a major corrective to that line of research, arguing that ‘House incumbents are no safer now than they were in the 1950s; the marginals, properly defined, have not vanished; the swing ratio has diminished little, if at all; and competition for House seats held by incumbents has not declined’. While Jacobson advances an extremely provocative argument, there are complicating patterns in his evidence that support additional and/or different interpretations. We argue that the marginals, ‘properly defined’ have diminished, the swing ratio has declined, and party competition for House seats held by incumbents has lessened. While fears that the vanishing marginals phenomenon would lead to lower responsiveness on the part of ‘safe’ House incumbents have proved groundless, the collective composition of Congress does appear to be less responsive to changes in popular sentiments. Thus, the vanishing marginals have contributed to the occurrence of divided government in the United States and in all likelihood do have the effects on congressional leadership and policy-making that many analysts have claimed.

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