The Impact of Solar Activity on the Greatest Forest Fires of Deliblatska peščara (Serbia)

The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%.

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Global warming and forest fires in Canada

The Forestry Chronicle ◽

10.5558/tfc69290-3 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 69 (3) ◽

pp. 290-293 ◽

Cited By ~ 47

Author(s):

Brian J. Stocks

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Management ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Research Activities ◽

Forest Fire Management ◽

The Future ◽

Innovative Thinking ◽

The Impact

The looming possibility of global warming raises legitimate concerns for the future of the forest resource in Canada. While evidence of a global warming trend is not conclusive at this time, governments would be wise to anticipate, and begin planning for, such an eventuality. The forest fire business is likely to be affected both early and dramatically by any trend toward warmer and drier conditions in Canada, and fire managers should be aware that the future will likely require new and innovative thinking in forest fire management. This paper summarizes research activities currently underway to assess the impact of global warming on forest fires, and speculates on future fire management problems and strategies.

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The impact of urban and forest fires on the airborne fungal spore aerobiology

Aerobiologia ◽

10.1007/s10453-018-9530-x ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (4) ◽

pp. 585-592 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Irene Camacho ◽

André Góis ◽

Roberto Camacho ◽

Vítor Nóbrega ◽

Fernandez

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Fungal Spore ◽

Airborne Fungal Spore ◽

The Impact

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Role of forest fires in Holocene stand-scale dynamics in the unmanaged taiga forest of northwestern Russia

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/0959683614544065 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 24 (11) ◽

pp. 1503-1514 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Niina Kuosmanen ◽

Keyan Fang ◽

Richard HW Bradshaw ◽

Jennifer L Clear ◽

Heikki Seppä

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Siberian Larch ◽

Wavelet Coherence ◽

Individual Tree ◽

Study Region ◽

Taiga Forest ◽

The Impact ◽

Wavelet Coherence Analysis ◽

Northwestern Russia

Fossil pollen, conifer stomata, and charcoal records for the last 10,000 years were studied from three small hollow sites (Larix Hollow, Mosquito Hollow, and Olga Hollow) located at the modern western range limit of Siberian larch ( Larix sibirica) in northwestern Russia to investigate the role of forest fires in stand-scale dynamics of taiga vegetation. Wavelet coherence analysis was utilized to reveal the significance of fire on the vegetation composition at different timescales by assessing the phase and strength of the relationship between forest fires and most common boreal tree taxa in a time–frequency window. Pollen and stomata data show that all of the modern-day common tree taxa, including Norway spruce ( Picea abies) and Siberian larch, have been present in the study region since the early Holocene. The absence of charcoal layers at Mosquito Hollow suggests that this site has acted as a fire-free refugium with continuous dominance of spruce throughout the Holocene. Meanwhile, the Larix Hollow record indicates frequent local fire events and as a consequence, a more variable tree species composition. The wavelet coherence results show that the impact of forest fires on vegetation varies from short-term (<200-year periods) changes in individual tree taxa to long-term (400–800 years) changes in forest composition, such as the expansion of spruce population after local high-intensity fires around 7500–7000 cal. yr BP and the increase in abundance of birch and alder during periods of high fire frequency. Our results suggest that Holocene fire histories can be markedly different within a small geographical area, demonstrating the importance of site-specific factors in the local fire regime in the unmanaged taiga forest.

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New possibilities of the PCA-Seq method in the analysis of time series (on the example of solar activity)

Journal of Physics Conference Series ◽

10.1088/1742-6596/2099/1/012034 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2099 (1) ◽

pp. 012034

Author(s):

V M Efimov ◽

K V Efimov ◽

D A Polunin ◽

V Y Kovaleva

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Solar Activity ◽

Maunder Minimum ◽

High Solar Activity ◽

External Influence ◽

Average Period ◽

Time Axis ◽

Constant Amplitude ◽

The Impact ◽

Analysis Of Time Series

Abstract When analyzing a 1D time series, it is traditional to represent it as the sum of the trend, cyclical components and noise. The trend is seen as an external influence. However, the impact can be not only additive, but also multiplicative. In this case, not only the level changes, but also the amplitude of the cyclic components. In the PCA-Seq method, a generalization of SSA, it is possible to pre-standardize fragments of a time series to solve this problem. The algorithm is applied to the Anderson series – a sign alternating version of the well-known Wolf series, reflecting the 22-year Hale cycle. The existence of this cycle is not disputed at high solar activity, but there are doubts about the constancy of its period at this time, as well as its existence during the epoch of low solar activity. The processing of the series by the PCA-Seq method revealed clear oscillations fluctuations of almost constant amplitude with an average period of 21.9 years, and it was found that the correlation of these oscillations with the time axis for 300 years does not differ significantly from zero. This confirms the hypothesis of the existence of 22-year oscillations in solar activity even at its minima, like the Maunder minimum.

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Tuned Forest Fire Prediction: Static Calibration of the Evolutionary Component of ‘ESS’

CLEI electronic journal ◽

10.19153/cleiej.17.2.9 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Germán Bianchini ◽

Paola Caymes Scutari

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

High Performance ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Statistical System ◽

Static Calibration ◽

Parameters Tuning ◽

System Output ◽

The Impact ◽

Performance Computing

Forest fires are a major risk factor with strong impact at eco-environmental and socio- economical levels, reasons why their study and modeling are very important. However, the models frequently have a certain level of uncertainty in some input parameters given that they must be approximated or estimated, as a consequence of diverse difficulties to accurately measure the conditions of the phenomenon in real time. This has resulted in the development of several methods for the uncertainty reduction, whose trade-off between accuracy and complexity can vary significantly. The system ESS (Evolutionary- Statistical System) is a method whose aim is to reduce the uncertainty, by combining Statistical Analysis, High Performance Computing (HPC) and Parallel Evolutionary Al- gorithms (PEAs). The PEAs use several parameters that require adjustment and that determine the quality of their use. The calibration of the parameters is a crucial task for reaching a good performance and to improve the system output. This paper presents an empirical study of the parameters tuning to evaluate the effectiveness of different configurations and the impact of their use in the Forest Fires prediction.

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Internet of Trees

International Journal of Advanced Trends in Computer Science and Engineering ◽

10.30534/ijatcse/2021/411022021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 750-753

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Low Cost ◽

Web Server ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Fire Detection ◽

Natural Habitats ◽

The Public ◽

Recorded Data ◽

The Impact ◽

The Internet Of Things

The frequency of the forest fires that have occurred in the different parts of the world, In recent decades significant population problems and causing the death if the wild animals as the impact of these fires extend beyond the destruction of the natural habitats. The proliferation of the Internet of Things industry, resolutions for initial fire detection should be developed. The valuation of the fire risk of an area and communication of this realities to the population could reduce the amount of fires originated by accident or due to carelessness of the public user. This paper proposes a low-cost network based on NXP Rapid IOT kit and Long Range (Lora) technology to autonomously estimate the level of fire risk in the forest. The system comprises of NXP Rapid IOT kit which humidity, air quality and detection of the tree fall. The data from each node stored and processed in a in a web server or the mobile application that sendsthe recorded data to a web server for graphical conception of collected data.

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La gestione degli incendi boschivi in Canton Ticino: tentativo di una sintesi storica | Forest fire management in Canton Ticino: attempting a historical overview

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2004.0263 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 155 (7) ◽

pp. 263-277 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Marco Conedera ◽

Gabriele Corti ◽

Paolo Piccini ◽

Daniele Ryser ◽

Francesco Guerini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Management ◽

Southern Alps ◽

Fire Fighting ◽

Historical Overview ◽

Forest Fire Management ◽

Structural Measures ◽

The Impact ◽

Legislative Measures

The Southern Alps, in particular the Canton Ticino, is the region of Switzerland that is most affected by the phenomenon of forest fires. Therefore, the cantonal authorities are continually confronted with problems of prevention, fire fighting and mitigation of the effects of forest fires. In this article forest fire management in Canton Ticino is analyzed in historical terms, verifying in particular the impact of the methods used and the improvement of technology addressing the frequency of events and the extent of burned surfaces. In this way it has been possible to show how a few structural measures (better organization of fire fighting crews and equipment, introduction of aerial fire fighting techniques, electrification followed by construction of shelters along railway lines, etc.) have rather reduced the extent of burned surfaces, while legislative measures such as restrictions of open fires help to reduce the number of forest fires.

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Production of peroxy nitrates in boreal biomass burning plumes over Canada during the BORTAS campaign

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-16-3485-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 3485-3497 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Marcella Busilacchio ◽

Piero Di Carlo ◽

Eleonora Aruffo ◽

Fabio Biancofiore ◽

Cesare Dari Salisburgo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Boreal Forest ◽

Forest Fire ◽

Biomass Burning ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Chemical Mechanism ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Fire Plumes ◽

Peroxy Nitrates ◽

In Fire ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The observations collected during the BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3) and total peroxy nitrates ∑PNs, ∑ROONO2). The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of ∑PNs, a long-lived NOx reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions. In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of concentrations of ∑PNs, whereas minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 is observed. The ∑PN and O3 productions have been calculated using the rate constants of the first- and second-order reactions of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation. The ∑PN and O3 productions have also been quantified by 0-D model simulation based on the Master Chemical Mechanism. Both methods show that in fire plumes the average production of ∑PNs and O3 are greater than in the background plumes, but the increase of ∑PN production is more pronounced than the O3 production. The average ∑PN production in fire plumes is from 7 to 12 times greater than in the background, whereas the average O3 production in fire plumes is from 2 to 5 times greater than in the background. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign, fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3, but (1 ∑PN production is amplified significantly more than O3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the O3 production and the ∑PN production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the ∑PNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long-lived precursors of O3 than short-lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area.

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