scholarly journals Synoptic characteristics of an extreme weather event: The tornadic waterspout in Tivat (Montenegro), on June 9, 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-90
Author(s):  
Jovan Mihajlović ◽  
Dragan Burić ◽  
Milan Milenković

Recently Montenegro has often been faced with extreme weather events. The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed synoptic analysis of a severe weather event, a waterspout, and to confirm an indication that in most cases such events could potentially be forecasted, which is of great practical significance, since human lives and property can be saved. The paper presents the research results of synoptic and mesoscale weather conditions which created a favourable meteorological environment for a waterspout development in Tivat (Montenegrin coast) on June 9, 2018, around 01 UTC (03 CET). Based on field survey analysis, the rating of tornado intensity by the Fujita scale (F-scale) has been done by assessing the damage. The synoptic type for this situation was CLOSED-SW and was determined by a detailed examination of atmospheric circulation. The results presented in the manuscript can help decision makers in Montenegro to take certain adaptation measures (above all, in tourism and construction) in order to mitig te the negative consequences of weather extremes.

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Hulme

Over the last 30 years, scientific research has increasingly implicated human activities in contemporary regional- to global-scale climatic change. Over the last decade, this research has extended to the detection of the fingerprint of human activities on individual extreme weather events. Is it possible to say that this or that weather extreme was ‘caused by’ human activities? Pursuing answers to this question raises many difficult philosophical, epistemological and political issues. In this progress report, I survey the nascent science of extreme weather event attribution by examining the field in four stages: motivations for extreme weather attribution, methods of attribution, some example case studies and the politics of weather event attribution. There remain outstanding political dangers and obstacles for extreme weather attribution if it is to be used, as some claim it can and should be, for guiding climate adaptation investments, for servicing the putative loss and damage agenda of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or for underpinning legal claims for liability for damages caused by extreme weather.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Vehola ◽  
Elias Hurmekoski ◽  
Katja Lähtinen ◽  
Enni Ruokamo ◽  
Anders Roos ◽  
...  

Abstract Climate change places great pressure on the construction sector to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions and to create solutions that perform well in changing weather conditions. In the urbanizing world, wood construction has been identified as one of the opportunities for mitigating these emissions. Our study explores citizen opinions on wood usage as a building material under expected mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at a changing climate and extreme weather events. The data are founded on an internet-based survey material collected from a consumer panel from Finland and Sweden during May–June 2021, with a total of 2015 responses. By employing exploratory factor analysis, we identified similar belief structures for the two countries, consisting of both positive and negative views on wood construction. In linear regressions for predicting these opinions, the perceived seriousness of climate change was found to increase positive views on wood construction but was insignificant for negative views. Both in Finland and Sweden, higher familiarity with wooden multistory construction was found to connect with more positive opinions on the potential of wood in building, e.g., due to carbon storage properties and material attributes. Our findings underline the potential of wood material use as one avenue of climate change adaptation in the built environment. Future research should study how citizens’ concerns for extreme weather events affect their future material preferences in their everyday living environments, also beyond the Nordic region.


Author(s):  
Jolanta Nemaniute-Guziene ◽  
Justas Kazys

In Lithuania, like in other countries, climate change causes and will cause changes in natural and anthropogenic environment. The entire transport sector will be impacted, influencing the way it plans, designs, constructs and maintains infrastructure in the future. Roads are already sensitive to current climate variability. If today’s extreme weather events become both more frequent and extreme, so too will the level of disruption that they cause. Thus, roads must be adapted to changing climate conditions. The aim is to ensure resilience, to ensure that roads remain open under extreme weather conditions. The easiest and the most effective economically way is to implement adaptation measures for the new or reconstructed roads. But the existing older roads should be adapted also. The steps required to improve and maintain resilience of roads are definition of climate projections, identification of key roads and their vulnerability, identification and research on technologies for adaptation, preparation of methodologies, establishment of field operational trials. The aim of the research is to review Lithuanian roads in the context of climate change and its consequences. Methodology: climate and associated data collection and review, initial prognoses of the change (in short, medium and long term perspective) of meteorological elements, vulnerability assessment of the study area and the roads. Results: initial recommendations for adaptation action planning.


2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (8) ◽  
pp. 1557-1568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Cattiaux ◽  
Aurélien Ribes

AbstractWeather extremes are the showcase of climate variability. Given their societal and environmental impacts, they are of great public interest. The prevention of natural hazards, the monitoring of single events, and, more recently, their attribution to anthropogenic climate change constitute key challenges for both weather services and scientific communities. Before a single event can be scrutinized, it must be properly defined; in particular, its spatiotemporal characteristics must be chosen. So far, this definition is made with some degree of arbitrariness, yet it might affect conclusions when explaining an extreme weather event from a climate perspective. Here, we propose a generic road map for defining single events as objectively as possible. In particular, as extreme events are inherently characterized by a small probability of occurrence, we suggest selecting the space–time characteristics that minimize this probability. In this way, we are able to automatically identify the spatiotemporal scale at which the event has been the most extreme. According to our methodology, the European heat wave of summer 2003 would be defined as a 2-week event over France and Spain and the Boulder, Colorado, intense rainfall of September 2013 a 5-day local event. Importantly, we show that in both cases, maximizing the rarity of the event does not maximize (or minimize) its fraction of attributable risk to anthropogenic climate change.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.


Geology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahin E. Dashtgard ◽  
Ludvig Löwemark ◽  
Pei-Ling Wang ◽  
Romy A. Setiaji ◽  
Romain Vaucher

Shallow-marine sediment typically contains a mix of marine and terrestrial organic material (OM). Most terrestrial OM enters the ocean through rivers, and marine OM is incorporated into the sediment through both suspension settling of marine plankton and sediment reworking by tides and waves under fair-weather conditions. River-derived terrestrial OM is delivered year-round, although sediment and OM delivery from rivers is typically highest during extreme weather events that impact river catchments. In Taiwan, tropical cyclones (TCs) are the dominant extreme weather event, and 75% of all sediment delivered to the surrounding ocean occurs during TCs. Distinguishing between sediment deposited during TCs and that redistributed by tides and waves during fair-weather conditions can be approximated using δ13Corg values and C:N ratios of OM. Lower Pliocene shallow-marine sedimentary strata in the Western Foreland Basin of Taiwan rarely exhibit physical evidence of storm-dominated deposition. Instead they comprise completely bioturbated intervals that transition upward into strata dominated by tidally generated sedimentary structures, indicating extensive sediment reworking under fair-weather conditions. However, these strata contain OM that is effectively 100% terrestrial OM in sediment that accumulated in estimated water depths <35 m. The overwhelming contribution of terrestrially sourced OM is attributed to the dominance of TCs on sedimentation, whereby ~600,000 TCs are estimated to have impacted Taiwan during accumulation of the succession. In contrast, the virtual absence of marine OM indicates that organic contributions from suspension settling of marine OM is negligible regardless of the preserved evidence of extensive reworking under fair-weather conditions. These data suggest that (1) even in the absence of physical expressions of storm deposition, TCs still completely dominate sedimentation in shallow-marine environments, and (2) the organic geochemical signal of preserved shallow-marine strata is not reflective of day-to-day depositional conditions in the environment.


2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 362-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayan Wedawatta ◽  
Bingunath Ingirige ◽  
Dilanthi Amaratunga

Wider scientific community now accept that the threat of climate change as real and thus acknowledge the importance of implementing adaptation measures in a global context. In the UK, the physical effects of climate change are likely to be directly felt in the form of extreme weather events, which are predicted to escalate in number and severity in future under the changing climatic conditions. Construction industry; which consists of supply chains running across various other industries, economies and regions, will also be affected due to these events. Thus, it is important that the construction organisations are well prepared to withstand the effects of extreme weather events not only directly affecting their organizations but also affecting their supply chains which in turn might affect the organisation concerned. Given the fact that more than 99% of construction sector businesses are SMEs, the area can benefit significantly from policy making to improve SME resilience and coping capacity. This paper presents the literature review and synthesis of a doctoral research study undertaken to address the issue of extreme weather resilience of construction sector SMEs and their supply chains. The main contribution of the paper to both academia and practitioners is a synthesis model that conceptualises the factors that enhances resilience of SMEs and their supply chains against extreme weather events. This synthesis model forms the basis of a decision making framework that will enable SMEs to both reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coping capacity against extreme weather. The value of this paper is further extended by the overall research design that is set forth as the way forward. Santruka Gana daug mokslininku jau sutinka, kad klimato kaitos gresme yra reali, taigi pripažista, kaip pasauliniame kontekste svarbu diegti prisitaikymo priemones. Tiketina, kad Jungtineje Karalysteje fizinis klimato kaitos poveikis bus tiesiogiai jaučiamas per ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius. Prognozuojama, kad kintant klimato salygoms ju skaičius ir intensyvumas ateityje dides. Tokie reiškiniai paveiks ir statybu pramone, kuria sudaro per kitas ivairiausias pramones šakas, ūkius ir regionus einančios tiekimo grandines. Taigi svarbu, kad statybu organizacijos būtu tinkamai pasiruošusios atlaikyti ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius, kurie daro tiesiogine itaka ne tik šioms organizacijoms, bet ir ju tiekimo grandinems, kurios savo ruožtu gali paveikti atitinkama organizacija. Daugiau kaip 99 proc. statybu sektoriuje veikiančiu imoniu priklauso SVV kategorijai, tad šiai sričiai išties praverstu politika, gerinanti SVV atsparuma ir gebejima susitvarkyti. Šiame darbe pateikiama literatūros apžvalga ir trumpai pristatomas daktaro disertacijos tyrimas, kuriuo siekta išnagrineti statybu sektoriaus SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Pagrindinis darbo indelis, pravartus ir mokslininkams, ir praktikams, tai sintezes modelis, kuriame suformuluojami veiksniai, didinantys SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šis sintezes modelis yra sprendimu priemimo sistemos pagrindas, o sistema SVV leis ne tik mažinti pažeidžiamuma, bet ir didinti gebejima susitvarkyti esant ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šio darbo verte dar labiau padidina bendras tyrimo modelis, pateikiamas kaip žingsnis pirmyn.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12194
Author(s):  
Iago Turba Costa ◽  
Cassio Arthur Wollmann ◽  
João Paulo Assis Gobo ◽  
Priscilla Venâncio Ikefuti ◽  
Salman Shooshtarian ◽  
...  

This research concerns the identification of a pattern between the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, such as cold waves and heat waves, and hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), in the University Hospital of Santa Maria (HUSM) in southern Brazil between 2012 and 2017. The research employed the field experiment method to measure the biometeorological parameters associated with hospital admissions in different seasons, such as during extreme weather conditions such as a cold wave (CW) or a heat wave (HW), using five thermal comfort indices: physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), new standard effective temperature (SET), predicted mean vote (PMV), effective temperatures (ET), and effective temperature with wind (ETW). The hospitalizations were recorded as 0.775 and 0.726 admissions per day for the winter and entire study periods, respectively. The records for extreme events showed higher admission rates than those on average days. The results also suggest that emergency hospitalizations for heart diseases during extreme weather events occurred predominantly on days with thermal discomfort. Furthermore, there was a particularly high risk of hospitalization for up to seven days after the end of the CW. Further analyses showed that cardiovascular hospitalizations were higher in winter than in summer, suggesting that CWs are more life threatening in wintertime.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia ◽  
Camilo Andrés Orozco-Vanegas ◽  
Daniel Parra-Amado

Given the importance of climate change and the increase of its severity under extreme weather events, we analyze the main drivers of high food prices in Colombia between 1985 and 2020 focusing on extreme weather shocks like a strong El Ni˜no.We estimate a non-stationary extreme value model for Colombian food prices. Our findings suggest that perishable foods are more exposed to extreme weather conditions in comparison to processed foods. In fact, an extremely low precipitation level explains only high prices in perishable foods. The risk of high perishable food prices is significantly larger for low rainfall levels (dry seasons) compared to high precipitation levels (rainy seasons). This risk gradually results in higher perishable food prices. It is non linear and is also significantly larger than the risk related to changes in the US dollar-Colombian peso exchange rate and fuel prices. Those covariates also explain high prices for both perishable and processed foods. Finally, we find that the events associated with the strongest El Ni˜no in 1988 and 2016 are expected to reoccur once every 50 years.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (s1) ◽  
pp. 50-57
Author(s):  
Adrián Varga

Abstract We live in the times of climate change when global temperatures are constantly rising. The impacts of climate change will also be felt in agriculture in Slovakia: increased productivity and yields in colder areas, reduced production in warmer areas due to temperature stress, risk of erosion as a result of more extreme weather conditions (stronger winds, more intense precipitation), the occurrence of new pests etc. Hence, we should be prepared for adaptation measures that would help mitigate it. The aim of this paper is to present the impacts of climate change on agriculture and land, and to offer adaptation measures, and show the prognosis of the climate indicator Ts >10 °C from now until 2100.


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