scholarly journals Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non-stationary extreme value approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia ◽  
Camilo Andrés Orozco-Vanegas ◽  
Daniel Parra-Amado
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Processed Foods ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Value Model

Given the importance of climate change and the increase of its severity under extreme weather events, we analyze the main drivers of high food prices in Colombia between 1985 and 2020 focusing on extreme weather shocks like a strong El Ni˜no.We estimate a non-stationary extreme value model for Colombian food prices. Our findings suggest that perishable foods are more exposed to extreme weather conditions in comparison to processed foods. In fact, an extremely low precipitation level explains only high prices in perishable foods. The risk of high perishable food prices is significantly larger for low rainfall levels (dry seasons) compared to high precipitation levels (rainy seasons). This risk gradually results in higher perishable food prices. It is non linear and is also significantly larger than the risk related to changes in the US dollar-Colombian peso exchange rate and fuel prices. Those covariates also explain high prices for both perishable and processed foods. Finally, we find that the events associated with the strongest El Ni˜no in 1988 and 2016 are expected to reoccur once every 50 years.

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

The Assessment of the Refurbished Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Point of the Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 899 ◽  
pp. 440-445
Author(s):  
Sára Hrabovszky-Horváth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Changes in climate have various impacts on the built environment: e.g. the building design and the materials together with the operation and the maintenance. Therefore, it is extremely important to account for the future weather conditions during both the design of new buildings and the renovation of existing buildings. According to the Hungarian meteorological researches as a consequence of the global warming the climate of Hungary is going to become warmer and drier as well as the number and the intensity of the extreme weather events is expected to grow. One of the main directions of actions in the Climate Change Strategy is the adaptation to the changing circumstances, the improvement of the adaptive capacity of the built environment. In this study, the prefabricated reinforced concrete large-panel residential buildings are analysed: a bottom-up methodology was developed based on typological approach to assess the vulnerability of the ‘panel buildings’ to climate change by analysing the extreme weather events. After assessing the sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the determined building types, their vulnerability to the increased number of windstorms and extreme rainfalls was estimated and the influence of their refurbishment was analysed.

scholarly journals A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1813-1831 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Rolinski ◽  
A. Rammig ◽  
A. Walz ◽  
W. von Bloh ◽  
M. van Oijen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Abstract. Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981–2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.

scholarly journals Lakes sensitivity to climatic stress – a sociological assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Marta Lackowska ◽  
Barbara Nowicka ◽  
Marta Bałandin ◽  
Mirosław Grochowski
Keyword(s):  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers

AbstractOne of the conditions for effective water resources management in protected areas is local decision makers’ knowledge about potential threats caused by climate changes. Our study, conducted in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of Tuchola Forest in Poland, analyses the perception of threats by local stakeholders. Their assessments of the sensitivity of four lakes to the extreme weather events are compared with hydrological studies. The survey shows that the lakes’ varying responses to extreme weather conditions is rarely noticed by ordinary observers. Their perception is usually far from the hydrological facts, which indicates a lack of relevant information or a failure in making it widely accessible and understandable. Moreover, it is rather the human impact, not climate change, which is seen as the biggest threat to the lakes. Insufficient environmental knowledge may hinder the effective protection and management of natural resources, due to bad decisions and lack of the local communities’ support for adaptation and mitigation policies.

Personal Experience, Extreme Weather Events, and Perceptions of Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Borick ◽  
Barry G. Rabe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Weather Events

The factors that determine individual perceptions of climate change have been a focus of social science research for many years. An array of studies have found that individual-level characteristics, such as partisan affiliation, ideological beliefs, educational attainment, and race, affect one’s views on the existence of global warming, as well as the levels of concern regarding this matter. But in addition to the individual-level attributes that have been shown to affect perceptions of climate change, a growing body of literature has found that individual experiences with weather can shape a variety of views and beliefs that individuals maintain regarding climate change. These studies indicate that direct experiences with extreme weather events and abnormal seasonal temperature and precipitation levels can affect the likelihood that an individual will perceive global warming to be occurring, and in some cases their policy preferences for addressing the problem. The emerging literature on this relationship indicates that individuals are more likely to express skepticism regarding the existence of global warming when experiencing below average temperatures or above average snowfall in the period preceding an interview on their views. Conversely, higher temperatures and various extreme weather events can elevate acceptance of global warming’s existence. A number of studies also find that individuals are more likely to report weather conditions such as drought and extreme heat affected their acceptance of global warming when such conditions were occurring in their region. For example, the severe drought that has encompassed much of the western United States between 2005 and 2016 has increasingly been cited by residents of the region as the primary reason for their belief that climate change is occurring. What remains unclear at this point is whether the weather conditions are actually changing opinions regarding climate change or if the preexisting opinions are causing individuals to see the weather events in a manner consistent with those opinions. Notably, the relationship between weather experiences and beliefs regarding climate change appear to be multidirectional in nature. Numerous studies have found that not only do weather experiences shape the views of individuals regarding global warming, but also individuals’ views on the existence of global warming can affect their perceptions of the weather that they have experienced. In particular, recent research has shown that individuals who are skeptical about the existence of global warming are less likely to report the weather recorded in their area accurately than individuals who believe global warming is happening.

scholarly journals Endless November? Citizen Beliefs Concerning Wood As A Construction Material Under Extreme Weather Events

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Vehola ◽  
Elias Hurmekoski ◽  
Katja Lähtinen ◽  
Enni Ruokamo ◽  
Anders Roos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Construction Material ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Wood Construction ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract Climate change places great pressure on the construction sector to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions and to create solutions that perform well in changing weather conditions. In the urbanizing world, wood construction has been identified as one of the opportunities for mitigating these emissions. Our study explores citizen opinions on wood usage as a building material under expected mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at a changing climate and extreme weather events. The data are founded on an internet-based survey material collected from a consumer panel from Finland and Sweden during May–June 2021, with a total of 2015 responses. By employing exploratory factor analysis, we identified similar belief structures for the two countries, consisting of both positive and negative views on wood construction. In linear regressions for predicting these opinions, the perceived seriousness of climate change was found to increase positive views on wood construction but was insignificant for negative views. Both in Finland and Sweden, higher familiarity with wooden multistory construction was found to connect with more positive opinions on the potential of wood in building, e.g., due to carbon storage properties and material attributes. Our findings underline the potential of wood material use as one avenue of climate change adaptation in the built environment. Future research should study how citizens’ concerns for extreme weather events affect their future material preferences in their everyday living environments, also beyond the Nordic region.

Testing Performance, Weathering and Aging of Photovoltaic Modules

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Trancossi
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mechanical Resistance ◽  
Photovoltaic Modules ◽  
Pv Module ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Testing Performance ◽  
Module Performance

This paper presents the ASTM WK22010 proposed standard on testing of photovoltaic modules. It aims to become a general framework that defines objective parameters regarding output production and lifecycle of modules and includes: - quantifying the PV module performance decay from the global effects of extended outdoor weather exposure and induced fatigue stress; - determine the mechanical resistance of modules to weathering from exposure to real outdoor or artificially created conditions, including extreme weather events; - determine the mechanical resistance and decay of optical characteristics of glasses from exposure to real outdoor or artificially created conditions, including extreme weather events; - determine the effective output production of modules and the resulting decay, during the expected module lifetime in real operating conditions and/or predefined artificial weather conditions; in order to predict performance in different real weather conditions from test result parameters.

scholarly journals MAINTAINING THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM UNDER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: A DUAL-NETWORK PERSPECTIVE

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S342-S359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Miao ◽  
David Banister ◽  
Yanhong Tang ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Bao Xi
Keyword(s):  
Transport System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Information Communication ◽  
Management Level ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Transport Studies ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Information Interchange

Recent years have seen an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events globally, and these have resulted in severe impacts on the transport system. To the means by which the transport system can be maintained under extreme weather events is an emerging topic in transport studies, and this is augmented by a growing concern about climate change. This paper considers transport system as dual-network composed of an interrelated operation level and management level that has some similarities with the theory behind the Wardrop Principle. Evidence from the case study on the snow event in South China in early 2008 is used to draw the dual-network formulation to generalise the law of maintaining the transport system under extreme weather. The mathematical models of the dual-network focus on entropic dynamics in the operation network and matching control activities in the management network. Quantitative evidence is provided to prove the methodology. Interactions through the form of information communication and organisational collaboration within and between networks are highlighted. Incentive mechanisms are emphasised for achieving effective anticipation, prevention and collaboration to coping with extreme weather events. This paper contributes to a better understanding about the role of networks, collective behaviour, information interchange and inter-organisational collaboration in influencing the maintenance of transport system under extreme weather conditions.

Efficiency of maize irrigation scheduling in climate variability and extreme weather events in eastern Croatia

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 586-595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Marković ◽  
Vjekoslav Tadić ◽  
Marko Josipović ◽  
Vladimir Zebec ◽  
Vilim Filipović
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Irrigation Scheduling ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Optimum Level ◽  
Soil Moisture Sensors ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Maize Grain

This study was conducted (2010–2012) to analyse the efficiency of irrigation scheduling in maize production based on soil moisture measurements (Watermark soil moisture sensors) in years with extreme weather events at the research site of the Agricultural Institute in Osijek, eastern Croatia. Three irrigation treatments and four maize hybrids were studied. In the extremely rainy 2010, the highest yield of maize grain was obtained in rainfed plots (control = 9.24 t ha−1). A significantly (P < 0.01) lower yield (−8%) was obtained in fully irrigated plots (a3 = 8.59 t ha−1). This was opposite to the results obtained from the extremely warm 2011 and very dry 2012, when grain yield was higher as the amount of irrigation water was increased. Maize grain yield in the fully irrigated plot was 25% (2011) and 40% (2012) higher compared with the control plots (dryland). According to our results, the main factor for irrigation efficiency in extreme weather conditions is to properly determine the optimum level for soil moisture sensors and ground water level in relation to root depth.

scholarly journals Effects of extreme hot weather on the reproductive output of great tits (Parus major, L.) in urban and natural habitats

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivett Pipoly ◽  
Bálint Preiszner ◽  
Krisztina Sándor ◽  
Csenge Sinkovics ◽  
Gábor Seress ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass ◽  
Reproductive Output ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Hot Weather

AbstractExtreme weather events are rare, but can have high impact on human societies and biological systems. As the frequency of extreme events are increasing with current climate change, it is important to understand its effects on fitness of individuals and on long-term viability of populations. In this study, we investigated the effects of extreme high ambient temperatures on breeding success of great tits in two urban and two natural forest populations during six years. We found that the number of hot days had habitat-specific effects on nestlings during their development period (from hatching to 15-days age). Average body mass of broods decreased with increasing number of hot days in both forest populations and one city population. However, the negative effect of hot days on chick mass was significantly stronger in forest compared to urban populations, suggesting that forest populations are more vulnerable to extreme hot weather conditions. Unlike other study populations, average chick mass increased with the number of hot days in the hottest urban study site, suggesting adaptation in heat tolerance in this population. Tarsus length of chicks and their survival until fledging was not influenced significantly by hot weather. Hot weather conditions may affect the reproductive output of birds at least two ways: indirectly through food availability and directly through nestling physiology. As the tarsus size and survival of chicks were not affected by hot days in our study, we suggest that the negative effect of hot days on body mass may emerge more likely from the direct physiological effects of heat. These results are one of the first demonstrations that the effects of extreme weather events can differ between wild populations living in different environment.

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