scholarly journals LIQUIDITY AND SOLVENCY ANALYSIS OF THE REAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY OF SERBIA FOR 2018-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Zajmi
Keyword(s):  
Inventory Management ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Impact

Issues of liquidity and solvency of companies, and not only issues of profitability, are crucial in the context of considering the future business of companies, and thus the economic sectors and the economy as a whole. For several years now, the required short-term funds are still not enough to service current liabilities. Liquidity rates are at half of a satisfactory level, while the growth of long-term loans, together with equity, is still not sufficient to finance fixed assets (solvency). Liquidity and solvency issues affect both the efficiency and productivity of the company, and indirectly the profitability. Based on the available information, the paper discusses the results of the real sector of the Serbian economy for the period 2018-2019, in the context of liquidity and solvency, as well as selected individual sectors, using generally accepted indicators. In the new crisis caused by the COVID 19 virus, companies have found themselves in a position where many of them need additional capital in order to improve and harmonize their financial structure. The illiquidity of the economy is a chronic problem, it is structural in its nature, which is the result of business inefficiency and a high degree of volatility on the impact of exogenous variables. In terms of solvency, we can conclude that one of the basic problems of all sectors is efficiency in inventory management, slow collection of receivables and late payment of liabilities. If we add the IMF forecasts, to this already disrupted structure of the solvency of the economy, ie the real sector, in which, the share of insolvent companies in developing countries will increase by between 14% and 30% in 2020, (due to the pandemic), we can be not optimistic. On the other hand, we must emphasize that the forecasts of economic growth for the countries of the region in 2021 are fairly optimistic, and for Serbia the predicted growth is 6.1%. The result of the analysis points to the conclusion that there will be no significant changes in terms of revenue and profitability of the real sector in the short term, but that the crisis caused by coronavirus will mostly affect small, micro and medium enterprises when it comes to liquidity and solvency, in this respect. In the long run, impaired solvency, and after that liquidity, will affect the still intact profitability of the sector. In that regard, solvency issues have a more significant impact, because in the long run, if corrective measures are not being taken, they will cause the inability of the companies to pay long-term overdue liabilities, and increase the number of companies operating without equity and the number of blocked companies. The sectors that will have the biggest problems in terms of liquidity and solvency are certainly transport, accommodation and tourism, art, entertainment and recreation, and very likely construction.

Hidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Capital Management ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The One

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals Exploring the Road to Agricultural Sustainability by Assessing the EU Debt Influencing Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2465
Author(s):  
Laura Brad ◽  
Gabriel Popescu ◽  
Alina Zaharia ◽  
Maria Claudia Diaconeasa ◽  
Daniela Mihai
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Fixed Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Periodic Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The importance of agricultural financing in ensuring food security and safety, jobs, poverty reduction, economic growth and more recently, climate change mitigation, natural resource conservation and sustainable development imposes periodic analysis of the factors which might influence the farmers’ financial situation, in order to improve it. One way of assessing this is to analyze the agricultural debt. In this context, based on previous models, the paper aims to assess the impact of specific factors on the agricultural debt level in the European Union during 2008–2015, as these should be considered in future common agriculture policies as well as in achieving sustainable agriculture. The research was conducted based on econometric techniques, by applying panel models in the Eviews 7.0 software-64 bit version. More than 20 variables were considered in the analysis. Some of the findings suggest that an increase in subsidies as well as the share of cash flow in the total existing capital would determine considerable reductions of the total debt. Decoupled subsidies seem to have a higher impact than coupled subsidies on short term debt, while its value is between the one found for coupled subsidies in the case of long term debt. Large farms/companies, to which decoupled payments are granted, have higher debts on long run and on total debt. The same units, to which coupled subsidies were granted, have smaller short-term debt. In contrast, the increases of labor costs, fixed costs, and crop/livestock costs lead to an increase in the total debt, since the farms require additional financial resources to cover the expanded costs. Also, the results suggest that short-term debts are mainly formed of long-term loans that reached maturity. In this case, the authors support the idea of differentiated financing programs for the agricultural activities because of their peculiarities and reinforced by the need to turn the intensive agriculture into a sustainable and plentiful one.

Privatisation, Myopia and the Long-Run Provision of Economic Infrastructure in Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Economic ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Infrastructure Provision ◽  
Economic Infrastructure ◽  
The Impact

The privatisation of economic infrastructure in Australia that began in the 1980s has continued to be actively pursued by state and federal governments. Evaluations of the effects of the change of policy, ownership, control and regulatory arrangements that have accompanied privatisation and their impact on the longer-term stock of infrastructure and the growth of the economy have received less attention than the immediate privatisation decisions. This article reviews some of the studies that have been carried out to evaluate the impact of privatisation, focusing on long-term impacts on infrastructure provision. In particular, it discusses the myopia created by the emphasis on commercial transactions and managing markets that continues to shape the debate about the provision of infrastructure to meet Australia's economic, environmental and other objectives. Objectives have become even more difficult to achieve as an increasingly extensive and complex regulatory framework is required to manage privatised activities. This adds to costs and limits the potential for the introduction of new initiatives to address pressing problems. The issue is increasingly relevant, given the current perceived shortage of infrastructure and the flow-on effects of the current international financial crisis on Australia. The slow-down in economic growth accompanying the financial crisis is putting pressure on government budgets and threatening to perpetuate the existing policy bias towards short-term solutions, exacerbating the longer run problem of ensuring an adequate supply of public economic infrastructure.

Underpricing in Initial Public Offerings: The Indian Evidence

1997 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
T P Madhusoodanan ◽  
M Thiripalraju
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Underpricing in the initial public offerings (IPOs) is a well documented phenomenon in the stock markets. In this paper T P Madhusoodanan and M Thiripalraju analyse the Indian IPO market for the short-term as well as long-term underpricing. They also examine the impact of the issue size on the extent of underpricing in these offerings and the performance of the merchant bankers in pricing these issues. The study indicates that, in general, the underpricing in the Indian IPOs in the shortrun was higher than the experiences of other countries. In the long-run too, Indian offerings have given high returns compared to negative returns reported from other countries. The study also reveals that none of the merchant bankers showed any better pricing capabilities.

scholarly journals SUKUK AND ISLAMIC BANKING FINANCING : HOW THE IMPACT FOR REAL SECTOR ?

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Budi Trianto ◽  
Masrizal Masrizal
Keyword(s):  
Vital Role ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia continues to strive to develop Islamic finance especially its Islamic banking and sukuk to support the real sector. The growth of Islamic finance in Indonesia is expected to encourage the development of the national economy. This study aims to investigate the impact of Islamic banking financing and sukuk financing on Indonesia’s industrial output. Applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) framework to monthly data from January 2011 to December 2018, we find   Islamic bank financing to contribute positively to the real sector  in both the long and short term. In addition, we also document positive long run contribution of sukuk financing to industrial output . Indeed, over the long run, sukuk financing tends to have a greater real impact than Islamic banking financing. The results of the study implies that Islamic banking and sukuk play a vital role in supporting the real sector in Indonesia.  Accordingly, recent initiatives by Indonesia to further develop its Islamic finance are steps in the right direction.  

scholarly journals Indebtedness and Liquidity in Agriculture: A Long-term Sectoral Evidence from Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-73
Author(s):  
Celal Demirkol ◽  
Ali Faruk Acikgoz
Keyword(s):  
Trade Credit ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Ratio ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Acid Test ◽  
The Impact

Being indebted and the liquidity shortfalls could be the base for recreating debt in the circumstances of unavailable trade credit. Accessing to bank credit or other liabilities is rather a function of liquidity for all types of businesses. Excluding equities, we hereby aim to reveal a sectoral evidence by the help of other liabilities side contributors and liquidity indicators on to what extend a firm regenerates debt in the long-run depending on the general liquidity criteria. Therefore, we try to explore a sector specific long-term evidence on the agriculture sector in Turkey. The real sector statistics feed the study in terms of data. Data curation consists of calculating data series as averages of three years aggregate balance sheet totals in the agriculture sector of Turkey for the time span of 1996 and 2016. The methodology follows a path as testing regressions for the variables, presenting interchangeably significant results, affirming the assumptions of the regressions, tests on unit root and cointegration along with causalities. The findings of the study confirm self-creating reasons of being indebted with the impact of liquidity. The study represents three models which have total debt to total assets ratio, short-term bank credits to short-term liabilities ratio, and long-term bank credits to total assets ratio as dependent variables respectively. We have analyzed the effects of current ratio, acid-test or quick ratio and cash and cash equivalents ratio which are listed as leading liquidity indicators. Cash and cash equivalents and current ratio have been found significant on the liabilities in the early trials of regressive test models. However, except current ratio liquidity indicators all together failed in predicting. The results eventually confirm the importance of eminent liquidity criteria, both current ratio and acid-test ratio are significant on the selected variables of liabilities as an evidence for the agriculture sector of Turkey in the long-run. Nevertheless, acid-test ratio has rather strong and enduring effects. Since cash and cash equivalents have been determined as stationary at a different level, they could therefore have insignificant impact on being indebted for longer periods than time span of the study. Yet the creditors would better not to directly add a liquidity indicator in their decision process of creditability in a sector. Nonetheless, the novelty of the study also ensures that predicting total debt and bank credits of both short and long run might require the same liquidity indicators along with other liability side contributors which do not necessarily or directly consider the shareholders’ equities in a sector specific atmosphere. 

scholarly journals Does Emigration Hurt the Economy? Evidence from Lithuania

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-458
Author(s):  
Gindrute Kasnauskiene ◽  
Remigijus Kavalnis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Losses ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Lower Confidence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the economic impact of population emigration with special reference to the case of Lithuania. For this reason, we developed a SVAR model and applied related IRF and FEVD tools using quarterly data for the period of 2001-2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in emigration is related to lower unemployment. It is also found that the increased emigration is linked to higher real wage growth but with a lower confidence interval. Moreover, our estimates suggest that international out-migration increases real GDP growth in the short term, with no significant effects in the long run perspective. Finally, we found that most of the emigrants-to-be were inactive for a long term prior to departure, which offers a new look into the consequences of Lithuanian emigration, suggesting that the economic losses of emigration could be overstated. This study contributes to the knowledge about the impact of emigration on the economy and specifies directions for further studies in the field.

scholarly journals OVERVIEW OF THE TEMPORARY MEASURES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) ACT 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (21) ◽  
pp. 220-227
Author(s):  
Rohana Abdul Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
The Other ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Contractual Obligations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Well Being

The impact of Coronavirus disease has transcended beyond imaginable. Everyone is vulnerable and no one on this planet can safely say that he or she is protected against the deadly virus. All governments are taking immediate steps to address the ensuing repercussion of the pandemic, both on a short-term and long-term basis. Malaysia has passed a law that provides for temporary measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the general economic sectors affecting the general economic well-being of the country. This paper explains the provisions of the COVID-19 Act 2020 and the specific other laws that it intends to modify therein. In particular, the paper highlights the establishment of a mediation process in respect of disputes arising from the inability to perform contractual obligations by parties during the pandemic. The paper concurs that COVID-19 Act 2020 attempts to cover quite comprehensive temporary measures to address issues relating to the pandemic and in the process provides validity to the actions taken by various parties before its commencement. On the other hand, the paper argues that several vague and uncertain provisions of the law led to questionable application and implication thus creating doubts as to its effectiveness.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Asian Countries: a heterogeneous panel data approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dicle Ozdemir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Carbon Fertilization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heterogeneous Panel

Abstract While climate change is having serious impacts on agriculture and may require ongoing adaptation, short-term threats to global food security are also crucial for developing countries. This study aims to investigate how the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity vary depending upon the short-run and long-run in Asia over the period of 1980–2016. The results confirmed that there is a long-term relationship between agricultural productivity and climate change variables; however, only CO2 emissions could be linked to agricultural productivity in the short-term. Moreover, while the direction of this effect is positive for the short term, it turns into negative in the long term confirming that carbon fertilization in the atmosphere can to some extent have a positive effect on agricultural productivity.

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