scholarly journals Impact of rising sea levels on Australian fur seals

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lachlan J. McLean ◽  
Steve George ◽  
Daniel Ierodiaconou ◽  
Roger J. Kirkwood ◽  
John P.Y. Arnould
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Marine Predator ◽  
Fur Seal ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Pup Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Global warming is leading to many unprecedented changes in the ocean-climate system. Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate and are amplifying the impact of storm surges along coastlines. As variability in the timing and strength of storm surges has been shown to affect pup mortality in the Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), there is a need to identify the potential impacts of increased sea level and storm surges on the breeding areas of this important marine predator in Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. Using high-resolution aerial photography and topographic data, the present study assessed the impacts of future inundation levels on both current and potential breeding habitats at each colony. Inundation from storm surges, based on a predicted rise in sea level, was modeled at each colony from 2012 to 2100. As sea level increases, progressively less severe storm surge conditions will be required to exceed current inundation levels and, thus, have the potential for greater impacts on pup mortality at Australian fur seal colonies. The results of the present study indicate that by 2100, a 1-in-10 year storm will inundate more habitat on average than a present-day 1-in-100 year storm. The study highlights the site-specific nature of storm surge impacts, and in particular the importance of local colony topography and surrounding bathymetry with small, low-lying colonies impacted the most. An increased severity of storm surges will result in either an increase in pup mortality rates associated with storm surges, or the dispersal of individuals to higher ground and/or new colonies.

scholarly journals Coastal Floods Induced by Mean Sea Level Rise—Ecological and Socioeconomic Impacts on a Mesotidal Lagoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1430
Author(s):  
Francisco Silveira ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
João Pedro Pinheiro ◽  
Humberto Pereira ◽  
João Miguel Dias
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coastal Floods ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Coastal floods are currently a strong threat to socioeconomic activities established on the margins of lagoons and estuaries, as well as to their ecological equilibrium, a situation that is expected to become even more worrying in the future in a climate change context. The Ria de Aveiro lagoon, located on the northwest coast of Portugal, is not an exception to these threats, especially considering the low topography of its margins which has led to several flood events in the past. The growing concerns with these regions stem from the mean sea level (MSL) rise induced by climate changes as well as the amplification of the impacts of storm surge events, which are predicted to increase in the future due to higher mean sea levels. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the influence of MSL rise on the inundation of Ria de Aveiro habitats and to assess the changes in inundation patterns resulting from frequent storm surges (2-year return period) from the present to the future, assessing their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. For this, a numerical model (Delft3D), previously calibrated and validated, was used to simulate the lagoon hydrodynamics under different scenarios combining MSL rise and frequent storm surge events. The numerical results demonstrated that MSL rise can change the vertical zonation and threaten the local habitats. Many areas of the lagoon may change from supratidal/intertidal to intertidal/subtidal, with relevant consequences for local species. The increase in MSL expected for the end of the century could make the lagoon more vulnerable to the effect of frequent storm surges, harming mostly agricultural areas, causing great losses for this sector and for many communities who depend on it. These extreme events can also affect artificialized areas and, in some cases, endanger lives.

Compound impact of rainfall, tidal level and storm surge on flood risk from tropical cyclones in the coastal area of shanghai

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanqing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Tidal Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

<p>Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme tropical cyclones has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms surge. In coastal areas, floods caused by rainstorms and storm surges have been one of the most costly and devastating natural hazards in coastal regions. Extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. Usually, extreme events such as tidal level, storm surges, precipitation occur jointly, leading to compound flood events with significantly higher hazards compared to the sum of the single extreme events. The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of multiple drivers to compound flooding in shanghai. The Wind Enhance Scheme (WES) model characterized by Holland model is devised to generate wind "spiderweb" both for historical (1949-2018) and future (2031-2060, 2069-2098) tropical cyclones. The tidal level and storm surge model based on Delft3D-FLOW is employed with an unstructured grid to simulate the change of water level. For precipitation, maximum value between tropical cyclone events is selected. Following this, multivariate Copula model would be employed to compare the change of joint probability between tidal level, storm surge and heavy precipitation under climate change, taking into account sea-level rise and land subsidence. Finally, the impact of tropical cyclone on the joint risk of tidal, storm surge and heavy precipitation is investigated. </p>

scholarly journals A National Study on Protecting Infrastructure and Public Buildings against Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Chinowsky ◽  
Jacob Helman
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
The United States ◽  
Design Guidelines ◽  
National Study ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
The Cost

The national study analyzes sea level rise (SLR) impacts based on 36 different SLR and storm surge scenarios across 5.7 million geographic locations and 3 time periods. Taking an approach based on engineering design guidelines and current cost estimates, the study details projected cost impacts for states, counties, and cities. These impacts are presented from multiple perspectives including total cost, cost per-capita, and cost per-square mile. The purpose of the study is to identify specific locations where infrastructure is vulnerable to rising sea levels. The study finds that Sea Level Rise (SLR) and minimal storm surge is a $400 billion threat to the United States by 2040 that includes a need for at least 50,000 miles of protective barriers. The research is limited in its scope to protecting coastal infrastructure with sea walls. Additional methods exist and may be appropriate in individual situations. The study is original in that it is a national effort to identify infrastructure that is vulnerable as well as the cost associated with protecting this infrastructure.

scholarly journals PREDICTING EXTREME WATER LEVELS AROUND AUSTRALIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Charitha Pattiaratchi ◽  
Yasha Hetzel ◽  
Ivica Janekovic
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

Throughout history, coastal settlers have had to adapt to periodic coastal flooding. However, as a society we have become increasingly vulnerable to extreme water level events as our cities and our patterns of coastal development become more intricate, populated and interdependent. In addition to this, there is now a real and growing concern about rising sea levels. Accurate estimates of extreme water levels are therefore critical for coastal planning and emergency planning and response. The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels be accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This objectives of this study was to estimate present day extreme sea level exceedance probabilities due to combination of storm surges, tides and mean sea level (including wind-waves) around the coastline of Australia.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/vGaB85VRujs

Contemporary monitoring of storm surge activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Ji ◽  
Guosheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

There is growing interest in storm surge activity related to catastrophic events and their unintended consequences in terms of casualties and damage around the world and in increasing populations and issues along coastal areas in the context of global warming and rising sea levels. Accordingly, knowledge on storm surge monitoring has progressed significantly in recent years, and this review, focused on monitoring the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, responds to the need for a synthesis. Three main components are presented in the review: (1) monitoring storm surges from the viewpoint of three effective approaches; (2) understanding the challenges faced by the three monitoring approaches to increase our awareness of monitoring storm surges; (3) identifying three research priorities and orientations to provide new ideas in future storm surge monitoring. From the perspective of monitoring approaches, recent progress was achieved with respect to tide gauges, satellite altimetry and numerical simulation. Storm surge events can nowadays be identified accurately, and the surge heights can be calculated based on long-term tide gauge observations. The changing frequency and intensity of storm surge activity, combined with statistical analysis and climatology, can be used to enable a better understanding of the possible regional or global long-term trends. Compared with tidal observation data, satellite altimetry has the advantage of providing offshore sea level information to an accuracy of 10 cm. In addition, satellite altimetry can provide more effective observations for studying storm surges, such as transient surge data of the deep ocean. Simultaneously, the study of storm surges via numerical simulation has been further developed, mainly reflected in the gradual improvement of simulation accuracy but also in the refinement of comprehensive factors affecting storm surge activity. However, from the above approaches, storm surge activity monitoring cannot fully reflect the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, especially the spatial changes at a regional or global scale. In particular, compared to global storm surge, tide gauges and satellite altimeters are relatively sparse, and the spatial distribution is extremely uneven, which often seriously restricts the overall understanding of the spatial distribution features of storm surge activity. Numerical models can be used as a tool to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings for storm surge monitoring, as they provide real-time spatiotemporal features of storm surge events. But long-term numerical hindcast of tides and surges requires an extremely high computational effort. Considering the shortcomings of the above approaches and the impact of climate change, there is no clear approach to remedy the framework for studying the spatial and temporal characteristics of global or regional storm surge activity at a climatic scale. Therefore, we show how new insights or techniques are useful for the monitoring of future crises. This work is especially important in planning efforts by policymakers, coastal managers, civil protection managers and the general public to adapt to climate change and rising sea levels.

scholarly journals Identifying the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges as a component of natural-disaster management using tidal-gauge data from Typhoon Maemi in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Guk Yum ◽  
Hsi-Hsien Wei ◽  
Sung-Hwan Jang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

Abstract. Global warming, one of the most serious aspects of climate change, can be expected to cause rising sea levels. These, in turn, have been linked to unprecedentedly large typhoons that can cause flooding of low-lying land, coastal invasion, seawater flows into rivers and groundwater, rising river levels, and aberrant tides. To prevent loss of life and property damage caused by typhoons, it is crucial to accurately estimate storm surge related risk. This study therefore develops a statistical model for estimating probability model, based on surge data pertaining to Typhoon Maemi, which struck South Korea in 2003. Specifically, estimation of non-exceedance probability models of the typhoon-related storm surge was achieved via clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation, while various distribution models were fitted to the empirical data for investigating the risk of storm surge height. The result of this process found that the result of Weibull distribution was better than other distribution model for Typhoon Maemi's peak total water level.

scholarly journals Hydrodynamic and Waves Response during Storm Surges on the Southern Brazilian Coast: A Hindcast Study

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3538
Author(s):  
Andre de Souza de Lima ◽  
Arslaan Khalid ◽  
Tyler Will Miesse ◽  
Felicio Cassalho ◽  
Celso Ferreira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Brazilian Coast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
The Impact

The Southern Brazilian Coast is highly susceptible to storm surges that often lead to coastal flooding and erosive processes, significantly impacting coastal communities. In addition, climate change is expected to result in expressive increases in wave heights due to more intense and frequent storms, which, in conjunction with sea-level rise (SLR), has the potential to exacerbate the impact of storm surges on coastal communities. The ability to predict and simulate such events provides a powerful tool for coastal risk reduction and adaptation. In this context, this study aims to investigate how accurately storm surge events can be simulated in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean employing the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave numerical modeling framework given the significant data scarcity constraints of the region. The model’s total water level (TWL) and significant wave height (Hs) outputs, driven by different sources of meteorological forcing, i.e., the Fifth Generation of ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA 5), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Global Forecast System (GFS), were validated for three recent storm events that affected the coast (2016, 2017, and 2019). In order to assess the potentially increasing storm surge impacts due to sea-level rise, a case study was implemented to locally evaluate the modeling approach using the most accurate model setup for two 2100 SLR projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Despite a TWL underestimation in all sets of simulations, the CFSv2 model stood out as the most consistent meteorological forcing for the hindcasting of the storm surge and waves in the numerical model, with an RMSE range varying from 0.19 m to 0.37 m, and an RMSE of 0.56 m for Hs during the most significant event. ERA5 was highlighted as the second most accurate meteorological forcing, while adequately simulating the peak timings. The SLR study case demonstrated a possible increase of up to 82% in the TWL during the same event. Despite the limitations imposed by the lack of continuous and densely distributed observational data, as well as up to date topobathymetric datasets, the proposed framework was capable of expanding TWL and Hs information, previously available for a handful of gauge stations, to a spatially distributed and temporally unlimited scale. This more comprehensive understanding of such extreme events represents valuable knowledge for the potential implementation of more adequate coastal management and engineering practices for the Brazilian coastal zone, especially under changing climate conditions.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Around Viti Levu, Fiji

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Tomoya Shimura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
The Impact

Projecting the sea level rise (SLR), storm surges, and related inundation in the Pacific Islands due to climate change is important for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal regions as well as the adaptation of the coastal regions. The compounding effects of storm surges and SLR are one of the major causes of flooding and extreme events; however, a quantitative impact assessment that considers the topographical features of the island has not been properly conducted.Therefore, this study projects the impact of storm surge and SLR due to climate change on Viti Levu, which is the biggest and most populous island in Fiji. The impact of SLR on the inundation in coastal areas was simulated using a dynamic model based on the IPCC SROCC scenarios and the 1/100 years return period storm surge implemented based on the RCP8.5 equivalent scenario. The affected inundation area and population due to storm surges and SLRs are discussed based on the compound effects of SLR and storm surge.Although the contribution of SLR to the inundation area was quite significant, the 1/100 year storm surge increased by 10 to 50% of the inundation area. In addition, a narrow and shallow bay with a flat land area had the largest impact of storm surge inundation. Furthermore, the western wind direction had the most severe storm surge inundation and related population exposure due to the topographic and bathymetric characteristics of Viti Levu Island.

Numerical Simulations of Storm-Surge Inundation Along Innermost Coast of Ariake Sea Based on Past Violent Typhoons

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1221-1227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noriaki Hashimoto ◽  
◽  
Masaki Yokota ◽  
Masaru Yamashiro ◽  
Yukihiro Kinashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Ariake Sea ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Rising Sea Levels

The Ariake Sea has Japan’s largest tidal range – up to six meters. Given previous Ariake Sea disasters caused by storm surges and high waves, it is considered highly likely that the bay’s innermost coast will be damaged by typhoon-triggered storm surges. Concern with increased storm-surge-related disasters is associated with rising sea levels and increasing typhoon intensity due to global warming. As increasingly more potentially disastrous typhoons cross the area, preventing coastal disasters has become increasingly important. The first step toward doing so is damage prediction, which requires numerical simulation. Our study considers the tracks of typhoons considerably influencing the Ariake Sea. To examine storm-surge risk related to both inundation area and process, we calculated storm surges inundating the Sea’s innermost coastal area using an improved ocean-flow finite-volume coastal ocean model. Results showed that enhanced storm surges were to be anticipated and that inundation areas could be extensive where typhoons followed a route from west to northeast across the Sea. We also found that even under current climatic conditions, typhoons able to cause significant storm-surge and inundation disasters could adversely affect the Bay’s innermost coastal area. Our analysis of this area and process indicated that the inundation extent around the bay’s innermost coast varies with the typhoon, confirming the importance of determining typhoon routes triggering the potentially greatest inundation damage.

scholarly journals Protecting Infrastructure and Public Buildings against Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10538
Author(s):  
Paul Chinowsky ◽  
Jacob Helman
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Design Guidelines ◽  
National Study ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
The Cost

The national study analyzes sea level rise (SLR) impacts based on 36 different SLR and storm surge scenarios across 5.7 million geographic locations and 3 time periods. Taking an approach based on engineering design guidelines and current cost estimates, the study details projected cost impacts for states and cities. These impacts are presented from multiple perspectives, including total cost for constructing seawalls, costs per capita, and costs per square kilometer. The purpose of the study is to identify specific locations where infrastructure is vulnerable to rising sea levels. The study finds that Sea Level Rise (SLR) and minimal storm surge is a USD 400 billion threat to the coastline of the lower 48 United States by 2040 that includes a need for at least 80,000 km of protective barriers. The research is limited in its scope to protecting coastal infrastructure with seawalls to enable consistency throughout the study. The study is original in that it is an effort across the lower 48 states to identify infrastructure that is vulnerable, as well as the cost associated with protecting this infrastructure.

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