scholarly journals An Effective Prediction on COVID-19 Prevalence for India and Japan using Fbprophet Model

Author(s):  
Md. Mehedi Rahman Rana ◽  
Farjana Rahman ◽  
Jabed Al Faysal ◽  
Md. Anisur Rahman

Coronavirus has become a significant concern for the whole world. It has had a substantial influence on our social and economic life. The infection rate is rapidly increasing at every moment throughout the world. At present, predicting coronavirus has become one of the challenging issues for us. As the pace of COVID-19 detection increases, so does the death rate. This research predicts the number of coronavirus detection and deaths using Fbprophet, a tool designed to assist in performing time series forecasting at a large scale. Two major affected countries, India and Japan, have been taken into consideration in our approach.  Using the prophet model, a prediction is performed on the number of total cases, new cases, total deaths and new deaths. This model works considerably well, and it has given a satisfactory result that may help the authority in taking early and appropriate decisions depending on the predicted COVID situation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianshu Gu ◽  
Lan Yao ◽  
Tong Sun ◽  
Sara W. Day ◽  
Scott C. Howard ◽  
...  

Abstract In view of the fact that the 2019-nCoV has spread to most countries in the world, it is necessary to make scientific and well-founded predictions of the current pandemic situation caused by the virus worldwide, which are conducive to public, social and government responses that mitigate and appropriately address the pandemic. We collected data from provinces with more than 200 cases in China and from eight other countries. Our analyses showed that the disease duration has no correlation with the number of patients, with r = 0.184. The number of deaths was not correlated to the disease duration, with r = 0.242. However, a positive correlation between the days of disease duration and infection rate, with a r = 0.626. Furthermore, there is a strong positive correlation between the disease duration and total death rate, with a r = 0.707. Using death rate of first 25 days, we obtained a positive relationship with a r value of 0.597. Based on the data from first 25 days, the minimum and maximum days of COVID-19 pandemic duration of eight countries was estimated between days of 37 and 114 days.


2020 ◽  
Vol 140 ◽  
pp. 110151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Maleki ◽  
Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi ◽  
Mohammad Hossein Heydari ◽  
Kim-Hung Pho

JOGED ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-91
Author(s):  
Arjuni Prasetyorini

ABSTRAK“Mampir Ngombe” adalah film tari yang merefleksikan kondisi Pandemi Covid-19. Sejak akhir tahun 2019 hingga saat ini, seluruh manusia di bumi sedang menghadapi Pandemi dengan skala global. Memasuki tahun 2020 negara-negara di dunia mulai melakukan lockdown atau pembatasan sosial berskala besar bagi negaranya. Tingkat kematian akibat Pandemi Covid-19 ini selalu diberitakan melalui berbagai media setiap harinya, bahkan terdapat beberapa kerabat dan kawan yang terkonfirmasi positif Covid-19, hingga sembuh kembali namun juga ada yang meninggal. Duka dan kecemasan meliputi hampir disetiap harinya. Pandemi Covid-19 secara langsung dan tidak langsung memberi berbagai dampak. Salah satu dampak yang terjadi jika direnungkan secara dalam akan muncul suatu kesadaran, di mana hidup terasa benar-benar singkat bahwa setiap manusia tidak tahu kapan akan dipanggil pulang.Sebuah pepatah Jawa atau pitutur Jawa mengatakan “Urip iku mung sadermo mampir ngombe, yang memiliki arti hidup itu sangat singkat, ibarat hanya singgah minum. Pepatah itu menjadi sangat terasa pada kondisi saat ini. Waktu yang demikian singkat ini manusia diharapkan mengisinya dengan fikiran yang positif dan dan berusaha memanfaatkannya dengan melakukan hal-hal yang baik dan bermanfaat. Daripada hidup dalam ketakutan, kecemasan, dan kekuatiran, sebaiknya diisi dengan doa, serta belajar untuk ikhlas setiap harinya, hingga setiap langkah yang dijalani akan menjadi laku yang migunani tumpraping diri lan liya. Koreografer menggunakan media video/film sebagai media ungkap sebagai respons dan adaptasi pada kondisi Pandemi Covid-19. Pandemi Covid-19 membatasi gerak seni pertunjukan dalam hal ini tari yang secara normatif dapat dinikmati secara langsung oleh mata dan energi dirasakan hadir secara nyata, namun pada kondisi ini harus dinikmati melalui video/film. Karya ini merupakan sebuah ekperimentasi langkah baru bagi koreografer untuk mencoba dan berusaha mengekpresikan tari melalui media video/film dengan durasi 6.44 detik.ABSTRACTThe dance film entitled "Mampir Ngombe" with a short duration is a reflection and introspection on the current conditions of the Covid-19 Pandemic, all people on earth are facing a pandemic on a global scale since the end of 2019, entering 2020 countries in the world have begun. carry out lockdowns or large-scale social restrictions for the country. The death rate due to the Covid-19 Pandemic is always reported through various news media every day, there are even some relatives and friends who have been confirmed positive for Covid-19, until they recover, but some have died. Grief and anxiety always cover almost every day. The Covid-19 pandemic directly and indirectly has various impacts. One of the impacts that occurs if you think about it deeply will emerge an awareness, where life feels really short that every human being does not know when to be called home. A Javanese proverb or Javanese pitutur “states Urip iku mung sadermo mampir ngombe, which means life is like just stopping by for a drink, very briefly. The proverb is very pronounced in the current condition. This time is so short that humans are expected instead of every day filled with worries, fears and worries, it would be nice if they were filled with positive thoughts and and trying to make use of them by doing good and useful things, such as filling them with prayers, working with them. following health protocols, trying to live up to the advice from the government, namely Gerakan 5M Covid-19 (Wearing a mask, washing hands with soap with running water, keeping your distance, keeping away from crowds) and learning to do iklas every day, so that every step you take will become a laku that migunani tumprapting liyan. Choreographers use video / film media as a medium of expression as a response and adaptation to the conditions of the Covid-19 Pandemic. The Covid-19 pandemic limits the movement of performing arts, in this case dance, which can normally be enjoyed directly by the eye and the energy is felt to be present in real terms, but in this condition it must be enjoyed through videos / films. This work is an experimentation of a new step for choreographers to try and try to express dance through video / film media with short duration.


Author(s):  
Arunkumar P. M. ◽  
Lakshmana Kumar Ramasamy ◽  
Amala Jayanthi M.

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.


A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.


2013 ◽  
pp. 191-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murray Stokely ◽  
Farzan Rohani ◽  
Eric Tassone

In real world applications, one of the prosperous field of science is time series forecasting due to its recognition though having some challenges in the development of methods. In medical field, time series forecasting models have been successfully used in various applications to predict progress of the disease, measure the risk dependent on time and the mortality rate. However due to the availability of many techniques which excel in each of a particular scenario, choosing an appropriate model has become challenging. When a huge dataset is considered it is obvious that machine learning is the best way to perform predictive analysis or pattern recognition tasks on the data. Before machine learning can be used, the time series forecasting problems should be reframed into supervised learning problems. The purpose of machine learning in this field is also to tackle the different challenges like data pre-processing, data modelling, training and any other refinement required with respect to the actual data. This paper deals with the predictive analysis and various visualization applications for time series forecasting of COVID- 19 patients throughout the world.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haotian Wang ◽  
Abhirup Ghosh ◽  
Jiaxin Ding ◽  
Rik Sarkar ◽  
Jie Gao

AbstractMajor interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large scale lockdown of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal functions. We show that natural human movements are statistically diverse, and the spread of the disease is significantly influenced by a small group of active individuals and gathering venues. We find that interventions focused on these most mobile individuals and popular venues reduce both the peak infection rate and the total infected population while retaining high social activity levels. These trends are seen consistently in simulations with real human mobility data of different scales, resolutions, and modalities from multiple cities across the world. The observation implies that compared to broad sweeping interventions, more heterogeneous strategies that are targeted based on the network effects in human mobility provide a better balance between pandemic control and regular social activities.


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