scholarly journals Impact of Fiscal Deficit and Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Najia Shakir ◽  
Sami Ullah ◽  
Salim Ullah Khan ◽  
Muhammad Qasim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The current study was conducted in the year 2014 in Pakistan to investigate the impact of fiscal deficit and government debt on the interest rate.  Data on selected macroeconomic variables like fiscal deficit, government debt, GDP per capita, money supply and volume of trade etc. from the year 1990 to 2012.  The study also has tried to find out that how the interest rate in the country is affected by the government debt and fiscal deficit. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was run to address the stationary issue in the data, and then Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model test was run to check the relationship among the variables. Two models were set in the study. In the first model, the relationship of GDP per capita, money supply, total debt servicing and volume of trade showed a significant relationship with the fiscal deficit, while in the second model the relationship of inflation, fiscal deficit, money supply, government debt and public debt showed a significant relationship with the interest rate. Policy makers are advised to focus on the increase of DGP/Capita and export volume. In order to sustain the rate of inflation, the government may regulate the money supply and public borrowing.

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: New evidence from Greece

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-153
Author(s):  
Antonia Gkergki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Research ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth from 1968 to 2019 in Greece, by employing the vector error-correction model estimation. A series of econometric tests are employed concerning the stationary of the data, and the co-integration and the relationship among the variables during the long- and short-term. The em-pirical results suggest that there is no bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. More specifically, GDP per capita does not affect the energy consump-tion of the three primary sources either in the long-term or the short-term. In other words, the economic crisis and its implications for GDP do not affect energy consumption, and they are not responsible for the considerable decrease in energy sources' consumption. On the other hand, the energy consumption of oil and coal negatively affect the GDP per capita. These re-sults are different from previous studies' conclusions for Greece; this is because the never been experienced before. These findings raise new research questions and also show the limi-tations of the Greek market, as it is regulated and controlled by the government.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Government Debt and Social Welfare

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Muhammad Kivlan Reftreka Nugraha ◽  
Hefrizal Handra
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between government debt and social welfare in Indonesia in 1980-2019. The data used in this research is secondary data using time series data. The analysis used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The findings result from the first model show that in the short-run, additional debt-to-GDP was not significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the long-run, additional debt-to-GDP is significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. The results also find that in the long run additional debt-to-GDP is positively correlated with poverty levels in Indonesia, meaning that additional debt-to-GDP increases the poverty rate in Indonesia. For GDP per capita, additional debt-to-GDP has a negative correlation. The inflation, tax-to-GDP, and GDP are not significant to the poverty rate in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the additional debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP variable is significant to the poverty rate, and has a positif and negative correlation. The findings from second model also indicate that population and inflation are significant and positively correlated with the poverty level, but tax-to-GDP ratio is not significant on GDP per capita in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the population and tax-to-GDP are significant to GDP per capita. Total population has a positive correlation, while tax-to-GDP ratio has a negative correlation.

scholarly journals Determinants of Household Debt in Botswana: 1994-2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith M. Zimunya ◽  
Mpho Raboloko
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

<p><em>The paper identifies the factors that are influential in determining the growth of household debt in Botswana. Understanding the relationship between household debt and other economic indicators is an important step towards formulating focused and effective policies that control the effects of household debt on the whole economy. Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2012,</em><em> </em><em>the paper employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the influence of </em><em>G</em><em>ross </em><em>D</em><em>omestic </em><em>P</em><em>roduct (GDP) per capita, interest rates, inflation, household consumption and money supply on household debt. The findings indicate that GDP per capita, interest rates and money supply determine changes in household debt in the long-run. Further analysis shows that lagged household debt, interest rates and money supply influence changes in household debt in the short-run.</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p>

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Ekonomika ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 141-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidmantas Jankauskas ◽  
Janina Šeputienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Development Institutions ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Openness To Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Economic literature recognizes three “deep determinants” of economic development: institutions, geography and openness to trade. Discussion in the literature focuses on what part of the income per capita variation can be explained by institutions, geography and openness to trade. The empirical results can’t offer a clear answer, but there is a broader agreement in the literature that institutions play a more important role than geography and openness to trade. What is unclear whether the institutions also can explain variation in per capita income across countries, in which institutional environment is to some degree similar..This article aims to explore and quantify the relationship of the income level with institutional environment, geography and openness to trade across countries, grouped according their institutional environment quality.The results reveal that extent to which the variation in GDP per capita can be associated with the quality of institutional environment differs a lot between good and bad institutional environment samples. The results in good institutional environment sample come in line with series of studies in which the strong and positive link between various measures of institutions and economic development was established and support primacy of institutions over openness to trade and geography. I In bad institutional environment sample, on the contrary,no evidence was found that institutions mean a lot in respect of differences in GDP per capita. These results should not be interpreted so as to mean that institutional environment is not important, rather the degree of “badness” makes no difference.

The effect of a change in the interest rate on life assurance premiums

1940 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 380-390
Author(s):  
R. E. White ◽  
B. T. Holmes
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Related Subject ◽  
American Life ◽  
Life Assurance ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The recent paper by Dr Hagstroem (J.I.A. Vol. LXX, p. 119) directs attention to the very closely related subject of the effect on life assurance premiums of changes in the rate of interest. Some four years ago, in the course of an address before the American Life Convention, Mr V. R. Smith studied the relationship of the interest rate to life assurance premiums from a different angle. This note is an attempt to develop the mathematical theory underlying Mr Smith's method and to present some results on the basis of the A 1924–29 Table.

Effects of Government Expenditure on Private Investment in Nigerian Economy (1980–2016)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-156
Author(s):  
Taiwo Akinlo ◽  
Olusola Joel Oyeleke
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the effect of government expenditure on private investment in Nigeria during the period 1980–2016. The error correction model analysis was used in the study to analyze the relationship between the two variables. The study found that there is a long-run relationship among the variables and that the interest rate and inflation have negative but significant impact on private investment in the long run. On the other hand, government expenditure has positive but insignificant impact on private investment in the long run. In the short run, government expenditure and interest rate have a significant positive impact on private investment in Nigeria, while GDP per capita and inflation negatively impact private investment. The study concluded that there is the need for the government to increase its expenditure particularly on the provision of more infrastructural facilities as this will attract more investment from within and outside the country.

scholarly journals Examining the Factors Affecting Sovereign Credit Rating of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Yaser A. AlKulaib ◽  
Musaed S. AlAli
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

Despite the controversy surrounding the credibility of credit rating agencies’ rating systems, these agencies' ratings still play a crucial role in determining the premium paid by governments on their bonds. As a result, obtaining a high sovereign credit rating would lower borrowing costs and more demand for their bonds. In order to do so, policymakers should be aware of the factors that mostly affect the sovereign credit rating of their countries. While there are many factors credit rating agencies consider when assigning a sovereign credit rating for any country, this study aims to identify the factors that mostly affect Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ sovereign credit ratings assigned by the biggest three credit rating agencies, Standard and Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, and Fitch. This study is based on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) data 2012–2018. Results obtained from this research show that interest rate, government debt to GDP ratio, GDP per capita, and the labeling of the country as developed or developing country was the variables that mostly affect the S&P rating. GDP per capita and government debt to GDP were the factors that most influenced Moody’s scores. In contrast, GDP, interest rate, transparency score, government debt to GDP, and GDP per capita were the factors that most affect Fitch's credit rating scores. The results also revealed that in 2018, Kuwait was the most overrated country, while Oman was the most underrated country.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic and Financial Shocks in African Franc Zone: Exploring the nexus with Vector Autoregression

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Gérard Tchouassi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The Other ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper analyzes the impulse response functions due to macroeconomic and financial shocks in the African franc zone. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a vector autoregression (VAR) model for a sample of 14 African countries of the franc zone over the 1994-2014 times. Our results show that the evolution of the combined impulse response functions that a shock of the interest rate has a positive impact on snapshot itself, but negative on the other variables. A shock of the consumer price index has a positive impact on the instantaneous interest rate and the change in GDP per capita. But has a negative impact on the global balance as well as itself. A shock of the global balance has a negative higher instantaneous impact on itself but positive on the other variables. Although the variations observed following this shock on the other variables are quite low. A supply shock in the level of GDP per capita has a negative instantaneous impact on the global balance and itself, but positive on the other variables. Moreover, while this shock causes a slight increase in interest rates over the time, the stationary trend evolutions of the price index and decreasing of the global balance is observed. In terms of recommendations, it appears that the interest rate and the global balance are the two central variables that have captured the attention of the economic policymakers in these countries to improve country’s performance on the pathway of progress.

scholarly journals A cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit in Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-46
Author(s):  
Mian Nasir Uddin ◽  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Saleem Khan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government

This paper estimates the short and long run association between selected macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit in Pakistan for the period of 1985 to 2016. Macroeconomic variables such as exports, exchange rate, GDP per capita, inflation, gross capital formation have strong implications for the fiscal deficit. This study checks the data for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Method are used to investigate both the short and long run relationships. Results indicated the existence of both short run and long run relationship between the macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit. The findings of the study revealed that exports, exchange rate, GDP per capita, inflation, gross capital formation are important determinants of fiscal deficit in Pakistan. The study suggested that the government may focus on these factors to overcome fiscal deficit in Pakistan.

scholarly journals DETERMINANTES DEL AUMENTO O DISMINUCIÓN DE EMPRESAS: ANÁLISIS POR ENTIDAD FEDERATIVA Y ESTRATO DE EDAD

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolando I. Valdez ◽  
Eder J. Noda-Ramírez
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Social Insecurity ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Number Of Firms

En este trabajo, se pone a prueba la hipótesis de que los mismos factores afectan de manera distinta el aumento o disminución de empresas, según su edad. Para ello, se usan dos modelos de datos panel, cuya variable dependiente es el estrato de edad de la empresa: recién nacida, joven, adulta y mayor. En total, se estiman ocho ecuaciones utilizando variables explicativas de tipo económico y social. Entre los resultados más importantes destaca que el PIB, PIB per cápita, la TIIE, la Tasa de interés bancaria y la liquidez de la economía ejercen el mismo efecto, ceteris paribus, sobre la cantidad de empresas, independientemente de su edad. No obstante, la migración y la inseguridad afectan solo a las empresas recién nacidas y a las jóvenes. Abstract In this present study, the hypothesis that is tested is that the same factors diversely affect the ups and downs in the number of firms, taking into consideration their age. To prove this, there are two specific panel data models, whose dependent variable is the firm’s age stratum: infant, young, adult and elderly. Overall, eight equations are estimated, taking into account economic and social explanatory variables as well. The main results highlight that gdp, gdp per cápita, the interest rate, the banking interest rate and economic liquidity equally impact, ceteris paribus, the number of firms, independent to their age. However, migration and social insecurity impact only infant firms as well as young firms.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document