scholarly journals Direct and Reverse Causation of External Debt, Foreign Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Nwachukwu Ngozi Patricia ◽  
Willy Ugwuanyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Bound Test

This study examined the direct and reverse relationship among external debt, foreign investment and economic growth in Nigeria, 1980-2017. The study is ex-post facto in design and adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, Granger causality test, bound co-integration test and error correction representations. It was found that external debt and exchange rate were significant functions of Real Gross Domestic Product. Foreign Direct Investment and its lag were insignificant functions of real gross domestic product. The bound test following the ARDL framework, showed evidence in favor of co-integration among the variables regardless their stationarity properties. The rightly signed error correction term of 30.4% gives an indication that it takes about 3.28 years to restore the long-run equilibrium state on the real gross domestic product should there be any shock from the explanatory variables. It is therefore recommended among others that government should create an enabling environment that will attract foreign investment given the catalytic role it plays on economic growth in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impacts of Non-Oil Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria Between 1986-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 39-64
Author(s):  
Chinyere F.E. ◽  
Samuel N.N. ◽  
Nkama O.N. ◽  
Chinwoke R.E.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
The Government

Non-oil exports have been seen to be very vital in economic growth and development, especially for developing economics. Despite the poor contribution of non-oil exports to economic growth in Nigeria, this study is inspired by the inconsistencies in empirical findings regarding the connection and effect of non-oil exports on the economy. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. The time frame of thirty three (33) years, from 1986 to 2018 was adopted to allow for a large number of observations which will improve the robustness of the results. The data was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin of 2017. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique was applied in guesstimating the models. E – views 9.0 was the econometric software used for the analysis. The result revealed that non-oil exports have no significant effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product, agricultural contribution to real gross domestic product is not significantly affected by exports of non-oil products even though there is evidence of a positive but insignificant correlation between them. Manufacturing capacity utilization is not significantly influenced by variation in Nigeria’s non-oil exports. Non-oil exports are positively associated with manufacturing capacity utilization. Economic growth in Nigeria has not been significantly affected by non-oil exports despite the various non-oil promotion strategies by the government. We recommend that cost and access to financial services for non-oil exporters be moderate or relaxed.

scholarly journals Value Creation through Public Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (7) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Oshadare S.A. ◽  
Ashamu S.O. ◽  
Raheem A.N. ◽  
Ojeaga P. ◽  
Ajayi J.A.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Internal Debt

<p>The study examined the effect of value creation through public debt on economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2016 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The variables used in the study are a real gross domestic product, internal debt, external debt and Total debt service of Nigeria. They were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip Perron test. The result showed that the variables are stationary at first differencing. Co-integration test was also performed and the result revealed the presence of co-integration between public debt and economic growth. The co-integration results show that public debt and economic growth have long run relationship. The findings of the ARDL model via short run model result and long-run model result between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria is that in the short run external debt and internal debt are negatively related to the real gross domestic product but has effect on the economic growth, external debt is negatively related but has no effect to the economic growth. Whereas in the long run model, internal debt and debt service are also negatively related to the real gross domestic product but significant to the economic growth, external debt is positively related but has no effect to the economic growth. The study concluded that public debt and economic growth have long-run relationship, and they are positively related if the government will create the value that citizens desired by being sincere with the loan obtained and use it for the development of the economy rather than channel the funds to their personal benefit.</p>

scholarly journals Gross domestic product and its place in the state’s economic growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 58-72
Author(s):  
Victoria Kovalenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product

The article analyzes the dynamics of changes in gross domestic product of Ukraine and other countries of the world during 1991–2019. The role of gross domestic product in the country’s economic growth is determined. The current level of gross domestic product of Ukraine in comparison with other countries has been defined. Gross domestic product indicator by purchasing power parity per capita (real gross domestic product) was used for comparative analyses. Attention is focused on the fact that both in Ukraine and in a number of European countries there is a positive trend regarding its growth. It is established that the functioning of the shadow economy, along with the legal one, leads to a significant reduction in the share of tax revenues in the structure of the country’s budget revenues, which endangers the implementation of important government programs. Assessment of gross domestic product by categories of final consumption and income has been carried out. It has been proven that the main burden of losses from the economic downturn is shifted to employees. A decrease in gross domestic product leads to a reduction in the share of wages. The dynamics of indicators of the ratio of internal and external debt to gross domestic product for the period 2006–2019 is analyzed. It is established that the peak period, which poses a threat to Ukraine’s ability to fulfill its obligations, falls on 2015–2017. It has been substantiated that the growth of real gross domestic product in Ukraine is insignificant. External and internal reasons for the slow growth of real gross domestic product are determined, in particular: a high level of corruption; war in the East; growth of inflation, NBU discount rate; low investment attractiveness of domestic enterprises; growth of external debt; deterioration of transport infrastructure; poor economic dynamics; lack of a country development strategy. The directions of solving the negative situation that has developed in the country are given, and the ways of increasing the growth rate of the gross domestic product are proposed

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 60-73
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

scholarly journals KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
The Third ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.2 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 and further grow by 3.5 MMb/d in 2022, returning to 2019 levels by the third quarter (Q3) 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts economic growth of around 5.4% in 2021, compared with a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 of -4.4%. However, KOMO estimates a forecast more in line with the OECD’s outlook for growth (4.2%), which presumes that GDP levels will only reach 2019 levels by the end of 2021.

scholarly journals Impact of Domestic Industrial Output on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-67
Author(s):  
Kazeem Fasoye ◽  
Abiodun Sunday Olayiwola ◽  
Kehinde Elizabeth Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Domestic Savings

Purpose: This paper examined the potential of domestic industrial output on economic growth in Nigeria. Approach/ Methodology/ Design: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model procedure was employed for data analysis. Findings: The results revealed that the contribution of the domestic industrial output to economic growth was appalling which was necessitated by the worrisome image of “Made-in-Nigeria” goods. It was also showed that the results that domestic industrial output and domestic savings have positive relationships with real gross domestic product (RGDP) in the long run. This implies that a rise in the level of each of domestic output and domestic savings necessitated an increase in real gross domestic product (RGDP). Practical Implication: The implication presented in this study is related to the concerned authorities. The results indicate the need for diverse domestic production in order to achieve a healthy competition in the industrial sector in the country. Originality/Value: The study innovates by employing various statistical tools for exploring the effect of domestic industrial output on economic growth. The significant contribution of this study is in identifying that domestic production in Nigeria has been lagged behind in terms of output performance in the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence Based on Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-624
Author(s):  
Mahmood Ul Hassan ◽  
Hina Ali ◽  
Saeed Ur Rahman ◽  
Sabiha Parveen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bound Test

The objective of this research is to examine the monetary policy's impact on economic growth. Variables of study are Gross domestic product, Inflation, rate of interest, Exchange rate, Money supply, Investment, and Consumer Price Index and time series data is collected from. Gross domestic product is a dependent variable and all other variables are independent and have a great effect on the explanatory variable. In this study, the Augmented dicky fuller test is used to check out the stationarity of our selected variables and after that autoregressive distributed lag model co-integration technique is applied to estimate the parameters of the model. The result shows that inflation, interest rate, and consumer price index show a negative impact on gross domestic product. While other variables such as exchange rate, money supply, and investment show a positive impact on GDP. The study recommended that the desired level of output and employment can be attained by adopting sufficient strategies that reduce inflation in the economy.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Money Demand in Jordan: ARDL Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Ali Mustafa Al-Qudah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Recursive Residuals ◽  
Bound Test

The current study examined the relationship between real money demand (M2) and its determinants represented by real gross domestic product, real interest rate, inflation rate and budget deficit in Jordan for the period (2000Q1-20018Q1). The study used unit root test, Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), cointegration and long run, bound test to examine the study hypotheses. ARDL cointegration equation and ARDL Bound test show that there is a long run relationship between money demand M2 and its determinants, real interest rate, inflation rate, budget deficit and real gross domestic product. The short run ARDL results shows that the past period of money demand has a negative and significant impact on money demand, while inflation rate and Gross domestic product have a positive and significant impact on money demand in Jordan. The long run ARDL results show that the inflation rate, real gross domestic product and budget deficit have a positive long run relationship with money demand (M2)and Its impact on (M2 ) is positive and statistically significant at 1 percent level, while interest rate has a negative and significant impact on Money demand (M2 ). Inflation rate, real gross domestic product, budget deficit and interest rate are good determinants for money demand M2. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) of recursive residuals and cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMQ) of recursive residuals confirm that the estimated money demand M2 model is stable.

Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Scenario of the MINT Economies

Economy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-48
Author(s):  
Innocent U Duru
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey from 1986 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds approach to cointegration and Toda and Yamamoto causality test were utilized for this study. The long-run results revealed that there is no relationship between trade liberalization and real gross domestic product per capita except for Mexico and in this situation, the significance level was at 10%. The results of the causality test showed that no causality was detected between real gross domestic product per capita and trade liberalization for Mexico and Indonesia. A bidirectional causality between real gross domestic product per capita and trade liberalization was found for Nigeria whereas a unidirectional causality from trade liberalization to real gross domestic product per capita was revealed for Turkey. The no causality results for Mexico and Indonesia means that the policy objectives of trade liberalization and economic growth can be pursued independently in both economies. In addition, the bidirectional causality detected for Nigeria suggests that the policy objectives of trade liberalization and economic growth can be pursued together in Nigeria. Furthermore, the unidirectional causality from trade liberalization to real gross domestic product per capita found for Turkey implies that she employs trade liberalization policies effectively for objectives of economic growth, thus trade liberalization causes economic growth.

Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-111
Author(s):  
Naliniprava Tripathy ◽  
Maram Srikanth ◽  
Lagesh Aravalath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the long-run and short-run relationship between investment in infrastructure and economic growth in the Indian economy by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model, Error Correction Model, and Granger Causality Test. The study reports that there is no short-run relationship among gross domestic product, gross domestic capital formation, revenue of the governmentand exports. However, the study finds that unidirectional causality exists between employment and gross domestic product; gross domestic productandinflation. It implies that employmentlevel in organised sector and inflationinfluence the economic growth in India for a short period. The study finds that there is a long-run relation exists between economic growth, domestic investment, inflation and government revenue. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on capital formation, government income and inflation to accelerate growth and development in the Indian economy. The error correction term is indicating that long term relationship is stable and any disequilibrium created in short termwill be temporary and will correct over a period. However, it is suggested to maintain balance among inflation,gross domestic product, employment, exports, savings, investment and government revenue to keep an economy growing. These findings have important policy implications since an economy built on investment in infrastructural development.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document