scholarly journals STORM SURGE FORECASTING METHODS IN ENCLOSED SEAS

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
P.F. Hamblin
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Storm surges in enclosed seas although generally not as large in amplitude as their oceanic counterparts are nonetheless of considerable importance when low lying shoreline profiles, shallow water depth, and favourable geographical orientation to storm winds occur together. High water may result in shoreline innundation and in enhanced shoreline erosion. Conversely low water levels are hazardous to navigation. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the problem of storm surge forecasting in enclosed basins with emphasis on automated operational procedures. In general, operational forecasting methods must be based on standard forecast parameters, require a minimum of computational effort in the preparation of the forecast, must be applicable to lakes of different geometry and to any point on the shore, and to be able to resolve water level changes on an hourly basis to 10 cm in the case of high water level excursions associated with large lakes and less than that for smaller lakes. Particular physical effects arising in lakes which make these constraints difficult to fulfill are the reflections of resurgences of water levels arising from lateral boundaries, the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer and the presence of such subsynoptic disturbances as squall lines and travelling pressure jumps.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF DESIGN WATER LEVELS AT THE EMS-DOLLARD ESTUARY CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF A STORM SURGE BARRIER

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Herrling ◽  
Heiko Knaack ◽  
Ralf Kaiser ◽  
Hanz Dieter Niemeyer
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wind Velocities

In the Ems-Dollard estuary at the southern North Sea coast a revaluation of design water levels along the German dykes has become necessary, since the safety margin for sea level rise was increased by 25 cm due to a decision of the Lower Saxon Ministry for Environment and Climate Protection. The upstream part of the estuary is protected against high storm surges by a storm surge barrier. The closure of the barrier effects downstream surge water levels due to partial reflection. Deterministic-mathematical modeling is applied to evaluate design water levels and design wave run-up. Three severe storm surge events have been hindcasted by a cascade of three hierarchical models from the Continental Shelf over the German Bight into the area of interest. The models are forced by non-stationary and spatially varying data of atmospheric pressure, wind velocities and directions available of meteorological model investigations. The verification of the storm surge model with water level observations yields good agreements. With respect to legal boundary conditions, the single-value-method is applied to determine the highest expected high water level at Emden. Starting from this target water level, the wind velocities in the meteorological boundary conditions are increased with the aim to increase the surge level at the coast and to match the predetermined design water level at Emden. The responding water levels in the Ems-Dollard estuary assign the new design water levels.

The Study of the Impact for Coastal Engineering on High Water Level Induced by Storm Surges in Bohai Bay

2011 ◽  
Vol 94-96 ◽  
pp. 810-814
Author(s):  
Jin Shan Zhang ◽  
Wei Sheng Zhang ◽  
Chen Cheng ◽  
Lin Yun Sun
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Coastal Engineering ◽  
Cold Wave ◽  
Bohai Bay ◽  
Ocean Engineering ◽  
The Impact

Bohai Bay is an semi-closed bay, the storm surge disaster is very serious in past. Now more and more large ocean engineering are built here, To study changes of storm surge induced by the construction of large-scale coastal engineering in Bohai Bay in present, 2D numerical storm surge model is established with large - medium - small model nested approach. The three most typical storms surges: 9216, 9711 and by cold wave in October 2003 are simulated in the condition of before and after implementation of planning projects in Bohai Bay. Changes of storm surge water level due to implementation of artificial projects are analysis in this paper.

Uncertainty in coastal flooding: modelling and visualisation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Maskell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
High Water ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Flood Maps

<p>Two case studies are considered in the UK, where uncertainty and drivers of coastal flood risk are explored through modelling and visualisations. Visualising the impact of uncertainty is a useful way of explaining the potential range of predicted or simulated flood risk to both expert and non-expert stakeholders.</p><p>Significant flooding occurred in December 2013 and January 2017 at Hornsea on the UK East Coast, where storm surge levels and waves overtopped the town’s coastal defences. Uncertainty in the potential coastal flooding is visualised at Hornsea due to the range of uncertainty in the 100-year return period water level and in the calculated overtopping due to 3 m waves at the defences. The range of uncertainty in the simulated flooding is visualised through flood maps, where various combinations of the uncertainties decrease or increase the simulated inundated area by 58% and 82% respectively.</p><p>Located at the mouth of the Mersey Estuary and facing the Irish Sea, New Brighton is affected by a large tidal range with potential storm surge and large waves. Uncertainty in the coastal flooding at the 100-year return period due to the combination of water levels and waves is explored through Monte-Carlo analysis and hydrodynamic modelling. Visualisation through flood maps shows that the inundation extent at New Brighton varies significantly for combined wave and surge events with a joint probability of 100 years, where the total flooded area ranges from 0 m<sup>2</sup> to 10,300 m<sup>2</sup>. Waves are an important flood mechanism at New Brighton but are dependent on high water levels to impact the coastal defences and reduce the effective freeboard. The combination of waves and high-water levels at this return level not only determine the magnitude of the flood extent but also the spatial characteristics of the risk, whereby flooding of residential properties is dominated by overflow from high water levels, and commercial and leisure properties are affected by large waves that occur when the water level is relatively high at the defences.</p>

scholarly journals COASTAL ENGINEERING ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF A FETCH-LIMITED STORM-TRACKED LACUSTRINE MARINA

2020 ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Andrei Raphael Dita ◽  
Eric Cruz ◽  
Jose Carlo Eric Santos
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Hydroelectric Power Plant ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Project Area ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Operating Level

A marina for small crafts is being planned to be built within Caliraya Lake situated at an elevation of 290m above Mean Sea Level (maMSL). Unlike sea-connected water bodies, the water level of Caliraya Lake is largely influenced not by tidal fluctuations, but by the operational water level requirements of the hydroelectric power plant that it caters to. Due to the large difference in the Normal High Water Level (NHWL) and Minimum Operating Level (MOL) of the lake of 2.5m, a floating pontoon marina with guide piles was contemplated to be used. The marina analysis and design approaches implemented in this study considered waves generated by prevailing winds and ship-generated wakes to assess the wave climate and tranquility within the marina. Since the project area is also frequently tracked by typhoons, wind- and pressure-driven storm surges were also used for the vertical siting of the guide piles. Lastly, based on the geographic appearances of the lake shoreline and with the small size of the lake, the fetch limitations resulted to very small wind-generated waves and wind setup considered as wind-driven storm surge components. In comparison to open seas where wind-driven storm surge accounts for approximately 95percent of the total storm surge, the wind-driven storm surge components for the potentially critical historical typhoons which traversed within 200-km radius of the project area only generated 10-30percent of the total storm surge considered for the vertical siting.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/m-XEEw6r99g

scholarly journals Storm-Surge Induced Water Level Changes in the Odra River Mouth Area (Southern Baltic Coast)

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1559
Author(s):  
Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Mouth Area ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Szczecin Lagoon ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
River Mouth Area ◽  
Odra River

The Odra River mouth area is a region of the Southern Baltic coastal zone especially prone to the influence of storm surges. In the present study, the height and extent of the Baltic storm surges, and temporal offsets of the respective maximum water level occurrences in the Odra River mouth area were explored using cross-correlation, cluster analysis and principal component analysis. The analyses were based on hourly water level readings retrieved from water gauging stations located along the lower Odra reaches and at the coasts of the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay during storm surge years 2008/2009–2019/2020. The analysis of mutual relationships between water levels during storm surges indicated that the extent of marine influence on the lower Odra River and within the Szczecin Lagoon was variable during the studied surge events, and dependent on meteorological conditions (the strongest during the sustained occurrence of wind blowing from the northern sector), discharge from the Odra River catchment (the strongest at low discharge), ice conditions on the lower Odra (suppressing the storm surge propagation upstream), and general sea level in the Pomeranian Bay (stronger at high sea levels). The strongest correlation between sea levels at Świnoujście and water levels in the Szczecin Lagoon and the lower Odra was found at a 6–7 h offset. The extent of storm surges usually reached 100 km up the lower Odra channels, less frequently reaching 130 km away from the sea.

scholarly journals Storm Surge Assessment Methodology Based on Numerical Modelling

10.29007/hrlw ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara Santos ◽  
Mariana Gomes ◽  
Luis Vieira ◽  
José Pinho ◽  
José Antunes Do Carmo
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Automatic Generation ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Generation Procedure

Coastal zones face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations due to coastal threats like erosion and storms and due to an increasing intensive occupation. Tropical storms events can contribute to the occurrence of these situations, by causing storm surges with high water levels and, consequently, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding. This work aims to describe a methodology to estimate the storm surge occurrences in the Portuguese coastal zone, recurring to historical tropical storms data that occurred in the vicinity of Portugal and to numerical modeling of its characteristics. Delft3D software together with DelfDashboard tools were applied for the numerical modelling. An automatic generation procedure of storms was implemented based on the few available historical storms data characteristics. Obtained results allows to characterize storm surges along the Portuguese coast, identifying the most vulnerable areas and, consequently contributing for its proper planning and management.

scholarly journals Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (7) ◽  
pp. 2215-2231 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Butler ◽  
M. U. Altaf ◽  
C. Dawson ◽  
I. Hoteit ◽  
X. Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Hurricane Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

Lake and inland dunes as interconnected Systems: The story of Lake Tresssee and an adjacent dune field (Schleswig-Holstein, North Germany)

The Holocene ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 095968362098168
Author(s):  
Christian Stolz ◽  
Magdalena Suchora ◽  
Irena A Pidek ◽  
Alexander Fülling
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Bronze Age ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
High Water ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Dune Field ◽  
The North ◽  
Sand Drift

The specific aim of the study was to investigate how four adjacent geomorphological systems – a lake, a dune field, a small alluvial fan and a slope system – responded to the same impacts. Lake Tresssee is a shallow lake in the North of Germany (Schleswig-Holstein). During the Holocene, the lake’s water surface declined drastically, predominately as a consequence of human impact. The adjacent inland dune field shows several traces of former sand drift events. Using 30 new radiocarbon ages and the results of 16 OSL samples, this study aims to create a new timeline tracing the interaction between lake and dunes, as well, as how both the lake and the dunes reacted to environmental changes. The water level of the lake is presumed to have peaked during the period before the Younger Dryas (YD; start at 10.73 ka BC). After the Boreal period (OSL age 8050 ± 690 BC) the level must have undergone fluctuations triggered by climatic events and the first human influences. The last demonstrable high water level was during the Late Bronze Age (1003–844 cal. BC). The first to the 9th century AD saw slightly shrinking water levels, and more significant ones thereafter. In the 19th century, the lake area was artificially reduced to a minimum by the human population. In the dunes, a total of seven different phases of sand drift were demonstrated for the last 13,000 years. It is one of the most precisely dated inland-dune chronologies of Central Europe. The small alluvial fan took shape mainly between the 13th and 17th centuries AD. After 1700 cal. BC (Middle Bronze Age), and again during the sixth and seventh centuries AD, we find enhanced slope activity with the formation of Holocene colluvia.

scholarly journals PRE- and POST-STORM LiDAR SURVEYS FOR ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT ON COASTAL EROSION

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W8 ◽  
pp. 261-266
Author(s):  
A.-L. Montreuil ◽  
M. Chen ◽  
A. Esquerré ◽  
R. Houthuys ◽  
R. Moelans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Coastline Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Sustainable management of the coastal resources requires a better understanding of the processes that drive coastline change. The coastline is a highly dynamic sea-terrestrial interface. It is affected by forcing factors such as water levels, waves, winds, and the highest and most severe changes occur during storm surges. Extreme storms are drivers responsible for rapid and sometimes dramatic changes of the coastline. The consequences of the impacts from these events entail a broad range of social, economic and natural resource considerations from threats to humans, infrastructure and habitats. This study investigates the impact of a severe storm on coastline response on a sandy multi-barred beach at the Belgian coast. Airborne LiDAR surveys acquired pre- and post-storm covering an area larger than 1 km<sup>2</sup> were analyzed and reproducible monitoring solutions adapted to assess beach morphological changes were applied. Results indicated that the coast retreated by a maximum of 14.7 m where the embryo dunes in front of the fixed dunes were vanished and the foredune undercut. Storm surge and wave attacks were probably the most energetic there. However, the response of the coastline proxies associated with the mean high water line (MHW) and dunetoe (DuneT) was spatially variable. Based on the extracted beach features, good correlations (r>0.73) were found between coastline, berm and inner intertidal bar morphology, while it was weak with the most seaward bars covered in the surveys. This highlights the role of the upper features on the beach to protect the coastline from storm erosion by reducing wave energy. The findings are of critical importance in improving our knowledge and forecasting of coastline response to storms, and also in its translation into management practices.</p>

scholarly journals Role of intertidal wetlands for tidal and storm tide attenuation along a confined estuary: a model study

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 3181-3224 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Smolders ◽  
Y. Plancke ◽  
S. Ides ◽  
P. Meire ◽  
S. Temmerman
Keyword(s):  
Surface Area ◽  
Wave Attenuation ◽  
Spring Tide ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Storm Tide ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Model Study

Abstract. Coastal lowlands and estuaries are subjected to increasing flood risks during storm surges due to global and regional changes. Tidal wetlands are increasingly valued as effective natural buffers for storm surges by dissipating wave energy and providing flood water storage. While previous studies focused on flood wave attenuation within and behind wetlands, this study focuses on the effects of estuarine wetland properties on the attenuation of a storm tide that propagates along the length of an estuary. Wetland properties including elevation, surface area, and location within the estuary were investigated using a numerical model of the Scheldt estuary (Belgium, SW Netherlands). For a spring tide lower wetland elevations result in more attenuation of high water levels along the estuary, while for a higher storm tide higher elevations provide more attenuation compared to lower wetland elevations. For spring and storm tide a arger wetland surface area results in a better attenuation along the estuary up to a threshold wetland size for which larger wetlands do not further contribute to more attenuation. Finally a wetland of the same size and elevation, but located more upstream in the estuary, can store a larger proportion of the local flood volume and therefore has a larger attenuating effect on upstream high water levels. With this paper we aim to contribute towards a better understanding and wider implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation to increasing estuarine flood risks associated with storms.

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