scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTAL DEFENCES IN TOKYO BAY

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayaka Hoshino ◽  
Miguel Esteban ◽  
Takahito Mikami ◽  
Tomoyuki Takabatake ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Bay Area ◽  
Typhoon Intensity

Sea level rise and an increase in typhoon intensity are two of the expected consequences from future climate change. In the present work a methodology to change the intensity of tropical cyclones in Japan was developed, which can be used to assess the inundation risk to different areas of the country. An example of how this would affect one of the worst typhoons to hit the Tokyo Bay area in the 20th century was thus developed, highlighting the considerable dangers associated with this event, and how current sea defences could be under danger of failing by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 2761-2800 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Marzeion ◽  
A. H. Jarosch ◽  
J. M. Gregory
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Complete Disappearance ◽  
Global Mean Temperature

Abstract. Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers in order to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier mass loss to a~large degree is governed by the glaciers responding to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. Because of the geographic distribution of glaciers, both temperature and precipitation anomalies experienced by glaciers are vastly stronger than on global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites it liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing reduces the sensitivity of global glacier mass to changes in global mean temperature by a factor of two to three. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

scholarly journals Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Marzeion ◽  
A. H. Jarosch ◽  
J. M. Gregory
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Complete Disappearance ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

scholarly journals Rising Sea Level, Receding Boundaries and Freezing Baselines in a Warming Climate

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Emojong Amai Mercy ◽  
Eliud Garry Michura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Maritime Boundary ◽  
Climate Change Effect ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
Maritime Boundary Delimitation ◽  
International Boundaries

This paper discusses the less publicised but far from less significant, an issue of how the international community’s approach to maritime boundary delimitation will be impacted by climate change resulting in sea level rise with coastal lands submerging affecting the international boundaries and impacting on biodiversity and human survival in the future. The climate change effect is already creating pressure on international law regardless of the direction that the law of the sea takes in remedying this dilemma. It is quite apparent that global disputes and conflicts are arising and solutions are needed urgently. The climate change and the consequent global sea level rise are widely touted to submerge islands and coastlines without discrimination. The international community has been relatively slow to react to what could pose an unprecedented threat to human civilisation.  The policies that have been applied have arguably been reactive and not proactive.  In future climate change may develop other by-products which may not be understood at this moment and may require a proactive approach. Further discussion of the merits of the potential paths is ideal in ensuring that appropriate and well thought-out resolutions are negotiated. Regardless of the outcome, the thorough debate is required to ensure the correct decision is made and that the balancing act between fulfilling states' interests and achieving a meaningful result does not become detrimental to the solidity and the enforceability of the outcome. There is a need to establish a comprehensive framework for ocean governance for management and long-term development and sustainability.

scholarly journals Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert L.A. Vermeersen ◽  
Aimée B.A. Slangen ◽  
Theo Gerkema ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Kim M. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change

AbstractRising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque Lozano ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mean Sea Level

<p>Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.</p><p>Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.</p><p>In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.</p>

scholarly journals Earth's energy imbalance and implications

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 13421-13449 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hansen ◽  
M. Sato ◽  
P. Kharecha ◽  
K. von Schuckmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Energy Imbalance ◽  
Ice Melt

Abstract. Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during the 6-yr period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6 ± 0.3 W m−2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.

scholarly journals Risk to North American Birds from Climate Change-Related Threats

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brooke L. Bateman ◽  
Lotem Taylor ◽  
Chad Wilsey ◽  
Joanna Wu ◽  
Geoffrey S. LeBaron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractClimate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally, compounded by threats that could hinder species’ ability to respond through range shifts. However, little research has examined how future bird ranges may coincide with multiple stressors at a broad scale. Here, we assess the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate change threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5°C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0°C. Threats considered included sea level rise, lake level change, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We developed a gridded index of risk based on coincident threats, species richness, and richness of vulnerable species. To assign risk to individual species and habitat groups, we overlaid future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species’ ranges affected in both the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Nearly all species will face at least one new climate-related threat in each season and scenario analyzed. Even with lower species richness, the 3.0°C scenario had higher risk for species and groups in both seasons. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats will affect over 88% of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% species facing three or more threats. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US. Across the threats included here, extreme weather events have the most significant influence on risk and the most extensive spatial coverage. Urbanization and sea level rise will also have disproportionate impacts on species relative to the area they cover. By incorporating threats into predictions of climate change impacts, this assessment provides a comprehensive picture of how climate change will affect birds and the places they need.

scholarly journals Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1311-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kay ◽  
J. Caesar ◽  
J. Wolf ◽  
L. Bricheno ◽  
R. J. Nicholls ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
The Ganges

A hydrodynamic model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to explore increasing frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta over the 21st century.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document