scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of High-Resolution Land–Sea Masks on Hurricane Forecasts in HWRF

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zaizhong Ma ◽  
Bin Liu ◽  
Avichal Mehra ◽  
Ali Abdolali ◽  
Andre van der Westhuysen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
The United States ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Atlantic Hurricanes ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Realistic wind information is critical for accurate forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In order to provide more realistic near-surface wind forecasts of hurricanes over coastal regions, high-resolution land–sea masks are considered. As a leading hurricane modeling system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) system has been widely used in both operational and research environments for studying hurricanes in different basins. In this study, high-resolution land–sea mask datasets are introduced to the nested domain of HWRF, for the first time, as an attempt to improve hurricane wind forecasts. Four destructive North Atlantic hurricanes (Harvey and Irma in 2017; and Florence and Michael in 2018), which brought historic wind damage and storm surge along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States and Northeastern Gulf Coast, were selected to demonstrate the methodology of extending the capability to HWRF, due to the introduction of the high-resolution land–sea masks into the nested domains for the first time. A preliminary assessment of the numerical experiments with HWRF shows that the introduction of high-resolution land–sea masks into the nested domains produce significantly more accurate definitions of coastlines, land-use, and soil types. Furthermore, the high-resolution land–sea mask not only improves the quality of simulated wind information along the coast, but also improves the hurricane track, intensity, and storm-size predictions.

scholarly journals Influences on Observed Near-Surface Gust Factors in Landfalling U.S. Gulf Coast Hurricanes: 2004–08

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (12) ◽  
pp. 2587-2611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian M. Giammanco ◽  
John L. Schroeder ◽  
Forrest J. Masters ◽  
Peter J. Vickery ◽  
Richard J. Krupar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Flow Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Wind Flow ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Precipitation Structure ◽  
Gust Factors

AbstractThe deployment of ruggedized surface observing platforms by university research programs in the path of landfalling tropical cyclones has yielded a wealth of information regarding the near-surface wind flow characteristics. Data records collected by Texas Tech University’s Wind Engineering Mobile Instrument Tower Experiment and StickNet probes and by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program along the Gulf Coast of the United States from 2004 to 2008 were compiled to examine influences on near-surface gust factors. Archived composite reflectivity data from coastal WSR-88D instruments were also merged with the tower records to investigate the influence of precipitation structure. Wind records were partitioned into 10-min segments, and the ratio of the peak moving-average 3-s-gust wind speed to the segment mean was used to define a gust factor. Observations were objectively stratified into terrain exposure categories to determine if factors beyond those associated with surface frictional effects can be extracted from the observations. Wind flow characteristics within exposure classes were weakly influenced by storm-relative position and precipitation structure. Eyewall observations showed little difference in mean gust factors when compared with other regions. In convective precipitation, only peak gust factors were slightly larger than those found in stratiform conditions, with little differences in the mean. Gust factors decreased slightly with decreasing radial distance in rougher terrain exposures and did not respond to radar-observed changes in precipitation structure. In two limited comparisons, near-surface gusts did not exceed the magnitude of the wind maximum aloft detected through wind profiles that were derived from WSR-88D velocity–azimuth displays.

Characteristics of Physician Relocation Following Hurricane Katrina

2009 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Kusuma Madamala ◽  
Claudia R. Campbell ◽  
Edbert B. Hsu ◽  
Yu-Hsiang Hsieh ◽  
James James
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
General Medicine ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Fisher Exact Test ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Introduction: On Aug. 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States, resulting in the evacuation of more than 1.5 million people, including nearly 6000 physicians. This article examines the relocation patterns of physicians following the storm, determines the impact that the disaster had on their lives and practices, and identifies lessons learned. Methods: An Internet-based survey was conducted among licensed physicians reporting addresses within Federal Emergency Management Agency-designated disaster zones in Louisiana and Mississippi. Descriptive data analysis was used to describe respondent characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the factors associated with physician nonreturn to original practice. For those remaining relocated out of state, bivariate analysis with x2 or Fisher exact test was used to determine factors associated with plans to return to original practice. Results: A total of 312 eligible responses were collected. Among disaster zone respondents, 85.6 percent lived in Louisiana and 14.4 percent resided in Mississippi before the hurricane struck. By spring 2006, 75.6 percent (n = 236) of the respondents had returned to their original homes, whereas 24.4 percent (n = 76) remained displaced. Factors associated with nonreturn to original employment included family or general medicine practice (OR 0.42, 95 percent CI 0.17–1.04; P = .059) and severe or complete damage to the workplace (OR 0.24, 95 percent CI 0.13–0.42; P < .001). Conclusions: A sizeable proportion of physicians remain displaced after Hurricane Katrina, along with a lasting decrease in the number of physicians serving in the areas affected by the disaster. Programs designed to address identified physician needs in the aftermath of the storm may give confidence to displaced physicians to return.

scholarly journals Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Blaxill ◽  
Toby Rogers ◽  
Cynthia Nevison
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Total Base ◽  
Cost Categories ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe cost of ASD in the U.S. is estimated using a forecast model that for the first time accounts for the true historical increase in ASD. Model inputs include ASD prevalence, census population projections, six cost categories, ten age brackets, inflation projections, and three future prevalence scenarios. Future ASD costs increase dramatically: total base-case costs of $223 (175–271) billion/year are estimated in 2020; $589 billion/year in 2030, $1.36 trillion/year in 2040, and $5.54 (4.29–6.78) trillion/year by 2060, with substantial potential savings through ASD prevention. Rising prevalence, the shift from child to adult-dominated costs, the transfer of costs from parents onto government, and the soaring total costs raise pressing policy questions and demand an urgent focus on prevention strategies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Forcing Datasets on the High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Storm Ivan (2004) in the Southern Appalachians

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (10) ◽  
pp. 3300-3326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Sun ◽  
Ana P. Barros
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Southern Appalachians ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Forced Simulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Resolution Simulation

Abstract The influence of large-scale forcing on the high-resolution simulation of Tropical Storm Ivan (2004) in the southern Appalachians was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Two forcing datasets were employed: the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR; 32 km × 32 km) and the NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis (NCEP FNL; 1° × 1°). Simulated fields were evaluated against rain gauge, radar, and satellite data; sounding observations; and the best track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Overall, the NCEP FNL forced simulation (WRF_FNL) captures storm structure and evolution more accurately than the NARR forced simulation (WRF_NARR), benefiting from the hurricane initialization scheme in the NCEP FNL. Further, the performance of WRF_NARR is also negatively affected by a previously documented low-level warm bias in NARR. These factors lead to excessive precipitation in the Piedmont region, delayed rainfall in Alabama, as well as spatially displaced and unrealistically extreme rainbands during its passage over the southern Appalachians. Spatial filtering of the simulated precipitation fields confirms that the storm characteristics inherited from the forcing are critical to capture the storm’s impact at local places. Compared with the NHC observations, the storm is weaker in both NARR and NCEP FNL (up to Δp ~ 5 hPa), yet it is persistently deeper in all WRF simulations forced by either dataset. The surface wind fields are largely overestimated. This is attributed to the underestimation of surface roughness length over land, leading to underestimation of surface drag, reducing low-level convergence, and weakening the dissipation of the simulated cyclone.

Hospitalization Rates Among Dialysis Patients During Hurricane Katrina

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 325-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Howard ◽  
Rebecca Zhang ◽  
Yijian Huang ◽  
Nancy Kutner
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Service Use ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Dialysis Patients ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionDialysis centers struggled to maintain continuity of care for dialysis patients during and immediately following Hurricane Katrina's landfall on the US Gulf Coast in August 2005. However, the impact on patient health and service use is unclear.ProblemThe impact of Hurricane Katrina on hospitalization rates among dialysis patients was estimated.MethodsData from the United States Renal Data System were used to identify patients receiving dialysis from January 1, 2001 through August 29, 2005 at clinics that experienced service disruptions during Hurricane Katrina. A repeated events duration model was used with a time-varying Hurricane Katrina indicator to estimate trends in hospitalization rates. Trends were estimated separately by cause: surgical hospitalizations, medical, non-renal-related hospitalizations, and renal-related hospitalizations.ResultsThe rate ratio for all-cause hospitalization associated with the time-varying Hurricane Katrina indicator was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.05-1.29; P = .004). The ratios for cause-specific hospitalization were: surgery, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.68-1.04; P = .11); renal-related admissions, 2.53 (95% CI, 2.09-3.06); P < .001), and medical non-renal related, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.89-1.20; P = .63). The estimated number of excess renal-related hospital admissions attributable to Katrina was 140, representing approximately three percent of dialysis patients at the affected clinics.ConclusionsHospitalization rates among dialysis patients increased in the month following the Hurricane Katrina landfall, suggesting that providers and patients were not adequately prepared for large-scale disasters.Howard D, Zhang R, Huang Y, Kutner N. Hospitalization rates among dialysis patients during Hurricane Katrina. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2012;27(4):1-5.

scholarly journals The Effects of Assimilating Conventional and ATOVS Data on Forecasted Near-Surface Wind with WRF-3DVAR

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feimin Zhang ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Chenghai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Initial Field ◽  
Infrared Observation ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (WRF-3DVAR) system is used to investigate the impact on the near-surface wind forecast of assimilating both conventional data and Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) radiances compared with assimilating conventional data only. The results show that the quality of the initial field and the forecast performance of wind in the lower atmosphere are improved in both assimilation cases. Assimilation results capture the spatial distribution of the wind speed, and the observation data assimilation has a positive effect on near-surface wind forecasts. Although the impacts of assimilating ATOVS radiances on near-surface wind forecasts are limited, the fine structure of local weather systems illustrated by the WRF-3DVAR system suggests that assimilating ATOVS radiances has a positive effect on the near-surface wind forecast under conditions that ATOVS radiances in the initial condition are properly amplified. Assimilating conventional data is an effective approach for improving the forecast of the near-surface wind.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Changes in Land Surface Conditions on WRF Predictions in Arid Regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2829-2853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marouane Temimi ◽  
Ricardo Fonseca ◽  
Narendra Nelli ◽  
Michael Weston ◽  
Mohan Thota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eddy Covariance ◽  
Soil Texture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA thorough evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is conducted over the United Arab Emirates, for the period September 2017–August 2018. Two simulations are performed: one with the default model settings (control run), and another one (experiment) with an improved representation of soil texture and land use land cover (LULC). The model predictions are evaluated against observations at 35 weather stations, radiosonde profiles at the coastal Abu Dhabi International Airport, and surface fluxes from eddy-covariance measurements at the inland city of Al Ain. It is found that WRF’s cold temperature bias, also present in the forcing data and seen almost exclusively at night, is reduced when the surface and soil properties are updated, by as much as 3.5 K. This arises from the expansion of the urban areas, and the replacement of loamy regions with sand, which has a higher thermal inertia. However, the model continues to overestimate the strength of the near-surface wind at all stations and seasons, typically by 0.5–1.5 m s−1. It is concluded that the albedo of barren/sparsely vegetated regions in WRF (0.380) is higher than that inferred from eddy-covariance observations (0.340), which can also explain the referred cold bias. At the Abu Dhabi site, even though soil texture and LULC are not changed, there is a small but positive effect on the predicted vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and horizontal wind speed, mostly between 950 and 750 hPa, possibly because of differences in vertical mixing.

scholarly journals The Okur-Chung Neurodevelopmental Syndrome (OCNDS) mutation CK2K198R leads to a rewiring of kinase specificity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle M Caefer ◽  
Nhat Q Phan ◽  
Jennifer C Liddle ◽  
Jeremy L Balsbaugh ◽  
Joseph P O’Shea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Substrate Specificity ◽  
Tyrosine Phosphorylation ◽  
Initial Step ◽  
Loss Of Function ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Disease Condition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractOkur-Chung Neurodevelopmental Syndrome (OCNDS) is caused by heterozygous mutations to the CSNK2A1 gene, which encodes the alpha subunit of casein kinase II (CK2). The most frequently occurring mutation is lysine 198 to arginine (K198R). To investigate the impact of this mutation, we first generated a high-resolution phosphorylation motif of CK2WT, including the first characterization of specificity for tyrosine phosphorylation activity. A second high resolution motif representing CK2K198R substrate specificity was also generated. Here we report for the first time the impact of the OCNDS associated CK2K198R mutation. Contrary to prior speculation, the mutation does not result in a loss of function, but rather shifts the substrate specificity of the kinase. Broadly speaking the mutation leads to 1) a decreased preference for acidic residues in the +1 position, 2) a decreased preference for threonine phosphorylation, 3) an increased preference for tyrosine phosphorylation, and 4) an alteration of the tyrosine phosphorylation specificity motif. To further investigate the result of this mutation we have developed a probability-based scoring method, allowing us to predict shifts in phosphorylation in the K198R mutant relative to the wild type kinase. As an initial step we have applied the methodology to the set of axonally localized ion channels in an effort to uncover potential alterations of the phosphoproteome associated with the OCNDS disease condition.

scholarly journals Venture financing in the era of increasing epidemiological risks

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (8) ◽  
pp. 68-80
Author(s):  
Mykhailo DYBA ◽  
◽  
Iuliia GERNEGO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Venture Capitalists ◽  
Financing Policies ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Venture Financing ◽  
Venture Funding ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

The relevance of the study of venture financing development in the era of increasing epidemiological risks is considered within the current situation in society, namely the significant impact of COVID-19 on all sectors of social and economic development. This shows the urgency of a systematic justification of current trends and peculiarities of venture financing development, taking into consideration the COVID-19 situation. The above-mentioned aspects define the purpose of our study. The theoretical basis of our study means the analysis of the specifics and priorities of venture financing, considering the timeframe from venture financing formation to nowadays. Thus, the stages of evolution of views on venture financing are highlighted. The article examines the dynamics of venture financing globally, as well as the change of relevant indicators in Europe, Asia and the United States. In particular, along with the analysis of the total amount of venture financing in each of the considered markets, the volumes of venture financing agreements that were carried out for the first time were estimated. This allowed us to analyze the relevant trends and make conclusions on the priority objects for attracting the resources of venture investors in the era of growth of epidemiological risks, depending on the experience of venture capitalists. The article compares venture funding and the incidence of COVID-19 in some countries in Europe, Asia and the United States. The approaches of European experts to the assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on venture financing are revealed. The analysis of the relevant calculations provides the possibility to structure the priorities of modern venture investors depending on the sectoral distribution of COVID-19 influences. The practical value of the study is considered within a comprehensive analysis of trends in venture financing and assessment of changes in the priorities of venture investors, considering the increasing epidemiological risks. The research may be useful both in the context of developing public venture financing policies and within developing venture financing strategies at the business level.

scholarly journals Regional responses of surface ozone in Europe to the location of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Ordóñez ◽  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Ricardo García-Herrera ◽  
Pedro M. Sousa ◽  
Jordan L. Schnell
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Anticyclonic Circulation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Abstract. This paper analyses for the first time the impact of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges on near-surface ozone in Europe during a 15-year period. For this purpose, a catalogue of blocks and ridges over the Euro-Atlantic region is used together with a gridded dataset of maximum daily 8-hour running average ozone (MDA8 O3) covering the period 1998–2012. The response of ozone to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in three longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30º–0º W; European, EUR, 0º–30º E; Russian, RUS, 30º–60º E) is examined. The impact of blocks on ozone is regionally and seasonally dependent. In particular, blocks within the EUR sector yield positive ozone anomalies of ~ 5–10 ppb over large parts of central Europe in spring and northern Europe in summer. Over 20 % and 30 % of the days with blocks in that sector register exceedances of the 90th percentile of the seasonal ozone distribution at many European locations during spring and summer, respectively. The impacts of ridges during those seasons are subtle and more sensitive to their specific location, although they can trigger ozone anomalies of ~ 5–10 ppb in Italy and the surrounding countries in summer, eventually exceeding European air quality targets. During winter, surface ozone in the northwest of Europe presents completely opposite responses to blocks and ridges. The anticyclonic circulation associated with winter EUR blocking, and to a lesser extent with ATL blocking, yields negative ozone anomalies between −5 ppb and −10 ppb over the UK, Northern France and the Benelux. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50˚–60˚ N during the occurrence of ATL ridges favours the arrival of background air masses from the Atlantic and the ventilation of the boundary layer, producing positive ozone anomalies above 5 ppb in an area spanning from the British Isles to Germany. This work provides the first quantitative assessments of the remarkable but distinct impacts that the anticyclonic circulation and the diversion of the zonal flow associated with blocks and ridges exert on surface ozone in Europe. The findings reported here can be exploited in the future to evaluate the modelled responses of ozone to circulation changes within chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

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