Abstract. Arctic clouds exhibit a robust annual cycle with maximum
cloudiness in fall and minimum cloudiness in winter. These variations affect energy
flows in the Arctic with a large influence on the surface radiative fluxes.
Contemporary climate models struggle to reproduce the observed Arctic cloud
amount annual cycle and significantly disagree with each other. The goal of
this analysis is to quantify the cloud-influencing factors that contribute
to winter–summer cloud amount differences, as these seasons are primarily
responsible for the model discrepancies with observations. We find that
differences in the total cloud amount annual cycle are primarily caused by
differences in low, rather than high, clouds; the largest differences occur between
the surface and 950 hPa. Grouping models based on their seasonal cycles of
cloud amount and stratifying cloud amount by cloud-influencing factors, we
find that model groups disagree most under strong lower tropospheric
stability, weak to moderate mid-tropospheric subsidence, and cold lower
tropospheric air temperatures. Intergroup differences in low cloud amount
are found to be a function of lower tropospheric thermodynamic
characteristics. Further, we find that models with a larger low cloud amount
in winter have a larger ice condensate fraction, whereas models with a
larger low cloud amount in summer have a smaller ice condensate fraction.
Stratifying model output by the specifics of the cloud microphysical scheme
reveals that models treating cloud ice and liquid condensate as separate
prognostic variables simulate a larger ice condensate fraction than those
that treat total cloud condensate as a prognostic variable and use a
temperature-dependent phase partitioning. Thus, the cloud microphysical
parameterization is the primary cause of inter-model differences in the
Arctic cloud annual cycle, providing further evidence of the important role
that cloud ice microphysical processes play in the evolution and modeling of
the Arctic climate system.