scholarly journals Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1330) ◽  
pp. 1-60
Author(s):  
George Alessandria ◽  
◽  
Carter Mix ◽  
◽  

We evaluate the aggregate effects of changes in trade barriers when these changes can be implemented slowly over time and trade responds gradually to changes in trade barriers because firm-level trade costs make exporting a dynamic decision. Our model shows how expectations of changes in trade barriers affect the economy. We find that while decreases in trade barriers increase economic activity, expectations of lower future trade barriers temporarily decrease investment, hours worked, and output. Further- more, canceling an expected decline in future trade barriers raises investment and output in the short run but substantially lowers medium-run growth. These effects are larger when the expected reform is bigger. In the data, we find that countries with more trade growth after the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) rounds decreased investment and hours worked in the years leading to the tariff cuts, as predicted by our model.

2011 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. F4-F10
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell

Governments are important players in many parts of the economy, and at present perhaps the most visible is the balance they set between taxing and spending. Tax and spending polices are in part designed to redistribute resources between individuals, but they can also be used to redistribute resources over time. Governments can also use tax and spending policies to sustain or restrain economic activity, and in most countries a case can be made for using active fiscal policy in periods of clear economic distress, or in periods when it would be useful to restrain imbalances that can lead to financial crises. As a result it is difficult to gauge the appropriate stance of policy. Short-run problems have to be balanced against longer-term needs, and mistakes are common. In the UK, for instance, in the six years up until 2008 the balance of policy was perhaps too loose, whilst over the next five years it is probably too tight, even though deficits are projected to be higher than they were before 2009.


2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (11) ◽  
pp. 3117-3153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecile Gaubert

To account for the uneven distribution of economic activity in space, I propose a theory of the location choices of heterogeneous firms in a variety of sectors across cities. In equilibrium, the distribution of city sizes and the sorting patterns of firms are uniquely determined and affect aggregate TFP and welfare. I estimate the model using French firm-level data and find that nearly half of the productivity advantage of large cities is due to firm sorting, the rest coming from agglomeration economies. I quantify the general equilibrium effects of place-based policies: policies that subsidize smaller cities have negative aggregate effects. (JEL D22, D24, R11, R32)


2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-188
Author(s):  
Antonio Ruiz-Porras ◽  
Javier Emmanuel Anguiano-Pita

Estudiamos la interdependencia entre los precios del petróleo y la actividad económica, en México, usando un análisis de spillovers estáticos y dinámicos en los dominios del tiempo y de la frecuencia. Los principales hallazgos muestran, que: 1) Las relaciones entre los precios del petróleo y la actividad económica han fluctuado en el tiempo; 2) las variaciones de los precios del petróleo tienen efectos de corto plazo y sus volatilidades, efectos de largo plazo sobre la actividad económica; 3) los precios del petróleo MAYA tienen las mayores interdependencias con la actividad económica; 4) los spillovers netos más altos entre los precios del petróleo y la actividad económica ocurrieron entre abril de 2009 y junio de 2012. El estudio usa series de variaciones y volatilidades mensuales de los precios spot del petróleo MAYA, WTI y Brent y del indicador IGAE, del período de febrero de 1993 a diciembre de 2019. Abstract We study the interdependence between oil prices and economic activity in Mexico using an analysis of static and dynamic spillovers in the time and frequency domains. The main findings show that: 1) The relationships between oil prices and economic activity have fluctuated over time; 2) variations in oil prices have short-run effects and their volatilities have long-run effects on economic activity; 3) MAYA oil prices have the main interdependences with economic activity; 4) the highest net spillovers between oil prices and economic activity occurred between April 2009 and June 2012. The study uses a series of variations and monthly volatilities of the spot oil prices MAYA, WTI, and Brent, and the IGAE indicator from February 1993 to December 2019.


1983 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah M. Meltz ◽  
Frank Reid

The Canadian Government has introduced a work-sharing program in which lay offs are avoided by reducing the work week and using unemployment insurance funds to pay workers short-time compensation. Compared to the lay-off alternative, there appear to be economic benefits to work-sharing for both management and employees. Reaction to the scheme has been generally positive at the union local level and the firm level, but it has been negative at the national level of both labour and management. These divergent views can be explained mainly as a result of short-run versus long-run perspectives. Managers at the firm level see the immediate benefit of improved labour relations and the avoidance of the costs of hiring and training replacements for laid-off workers who do not respond when recalled. The national business leaders are more concerned with work incentive and efficiency aspects of work-sharing.


2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1593-1621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Lovcha ◽  
Alejandro Perez-Laborda

A recent finding of the SVAR literature is that the response of hours worked to a (positive) technology shock depends on the assumed order of integration of the hours. In this work we relax this assumption, allowing fractional integration in hours and productivity. We find that the sign and magnitude of the estimated responses depend crucially on the identification assumptions employed. Although the responses of hours recovered with short-run (SR) restrictions are positive in all data sets, long-run (LR) identification results in negative, although sometimes not significant responses. We check the validity of these assumptions with the Sims procedure, concluding that both LR and SR are appropriate to recover responses in a fractionally integrated VAR. However, the application of the LR scheme always results in an increase in sampling uncertainty. Results also show that even the negative responses found in the data could still be compatible with real business cycle models.


2021 ◽  
pp. 109442812199322
Author(s):  
Ali Shamsollahi ◽  
Michael J. Zyphur ◽  
Ozlem Ozkok

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are common, but their applications often focus on “short-run” effects among temporally proximal observations. This addresses questions about how dynamic systems may immediately respond to interventions, but fails to show how systems evolve over longer timeframes. We explore three types of “long-run” effects in dynamic systems that extend recent work on “impulse responses,” which reflect potential long-run effects of one-time interventions. Going beyond these, we first treat evaluations of system (in)stability by testing for “permanent effects,” which are important because in unstable systems even a one-time intervention may have enduring effects. Second, we explore classic econometric long-run effects that show how dynamic systems may respond to interventions that are sustained over time. Third, we treat “accumulated responses” to model how systems may respond to repeated interventions over time. We illustrate tests of each long-run effect in a simulated dataset and we provide all materials online including user-friendly R code that automates estimating, testing, reporting, and plotting all effects (see https://doi.org/10.26188/13506861 ). We conclude by emphasizing the value of aligning specific longitudinal hypotheses with quantitative methods.


Author(s):  
Md. Razib Alam ◽  
Bonwoo Koo ◽  
Brian Paul Cozzarin

Abstract Our objective is to study Canada’s patenting activity over time in aggregate terms by destination country, by assignee and destination country, and by diversification by country of destination. We collect bibliographic patent data from the Canadian Intellectual Property Office and the United States Patent and Trademark Office. We identify 19,957 matched Canada–US patents, 34,032 Canada-only patents, and 43,656 US-only patents from 1980 to 2014. Telecommunications dominates in terms of International Patent Classification technologies for US-only and Canada–US patents. At the firm level, the greatest number of matched Canada–US patents were granted in the field of telecommunications, at the university level in pharmaceuticals, at the government level in control and instrumentation technology, and at the individual level in civil engineering. We use entropy to quantify technological diversification and find that diversification indices decline over time for Canada and the USA; however, all US indices decline at a faster rate.


2000 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 825-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Karol

Scholars assert that divided government impedes the liberalization of U.S. trade policy. They claim that presidents favor freer trade and will use the negotiating authority Congress delegates to them to reach agreements lowering trade barriers. Since presidents gain more support from their congressional co-partisans, less liberalization ensues under divided government. This theory rests on the premise that party is unrelated to congressional trade policy preferences beyond legislators' tendencies to support their presidential co-partisans. Yet before 1970 congressional Democrats were relatively free trading regardless of the president's party affiliation. Since then, the same has been true of Republicans. Divided government facilitates the trade policies of presidents from the protectionist party since they win more support from their “opposition” in this area. Divided government does impede the efforts of presidents from the free-trading party to liberalize. I conclude that divided government has no consistent effect on trade policy outcomes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ada Leung ◽  
Huimin Xu ◽  
Gavin Jiayun Wu ◽  
Kyle W. Luthans

Purpose This paper aims to examine a type of interorganizational learning called Industry Peer Networks (IPNs), in which a network of non-competing small businesses cooperates to improve their skills and to stay abreast of the industry trends, so that the firms remain competitive in the local and regional markets. The key characteristic of an IPN is the regular gathering of peers in small groups (typically 20 or fewer carefully selected members) in an atmosphere of significant trust, guided by a facilitator, to participate in a series of formal and informal activities through established guidelines, to share knowledge about management and marketing, exchange information about industry trends beyond their core markets, discuss issues related to company performance and provide constructive criticism about peer companies. Design/methodology/approach The qualitative research on the context included visits to 13 peer meetings, three workshops for peer members, seven semi-structured interviews with members and many communications with the founder, chairman, committee chairpersons and several facilitators of peer meetings that spanned across five years. Data collection and analysis followed grounded theory building techniques. Findings The authors identified both cooperative and competitive learning practices that a small business could carry out to grow from a novice to an expert IPN peer member. The cooperative elements such as peer discussions, disclosure of financial data and exposure to various business models allow member firms to learn vicariously through the successes and/or failure of their peers. At the same time, the competitive elements such as service delivery critiques, business performance benchmarking and firm ranking also prompt the members to focus on execution, to emphasize accountability and to strive for status in the network. The IPN in this research has also built network legitimacy over time, and it has sustained a viable administrative entity that has a recognizable form and structure, whose functions are to strategically manage network activities and network growth to attract like-minded new members. Research limitations/implications First, because this research focused on fleshing out the transformative practices engaged by IPN peers, it necessarily neglected other types of network relationships that affect the small businesses, including local competitors, vendors and customers. Second, the small employment size of these firms and the personal nature of network ties in the IPN may provide an especially fertile ground for network learning that might not exist for larger firms. Third, the technology-intensive and quality-sensitive nature of IT firms may make technological trend sensitization and operating efficiency more competitive advantages in this industry than in others. Finally, although participation in IPN is associated with higher level of perceived learning, the relationship between learning and business performance is not yet articulated empirically. Practical implications The study contributes to the understanding of cooperative/competitive transformative practices in the IPN by highlighting the defining features at each transformation stage, from firms being isolated entities which react to market forces to connected peers which proactively drive the markets. IPNs are most effective for business owners who are at their early growth stage, in which they are positioned to grow further. Nevertheless, the authors also present the paradoxical capacity of IPNs to propel firms along trajectories of empowerment or disengagement. Social implications As 78.5 per cent of the US firms are small businesses having fewer than 10 employees, the knowledge of firm and IPN transformation is important for both researchers and advocates of small businesses to understand the roots of success or failure of firms and the IPNs in which they are embedded. Originality/value Earlier research has not explored the network-level effects as part of a full array of outcomes. Instead, research involving IPNs has focused primarily on the motivation and immediate firm-level outcomes of IPNs. Research to this point has also failed to examine IPNs from a developmental perspective, how the firms and the IPN as a network transform over time.


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