scholarly journals Microeconomic Foundation for Phillips Curve with a Three-Period Overlapping Generations Model and Negative Real Balance Effect

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (55) ◽  
pp. 163-175
Author(s):  
Yasuhito Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Olg Model ◽  
Real Balance ◽  
Negative Relation ◽  
Profit Maximisation

Abstract We show a negative relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, that is, the Phillips curve using a three-period overlapping generations (OLG) model with childhood period and pay-as-you-go pension for older generation under monopolistic competition with negative real balance effect. In a three-period OLG model, there may exist a negative real balance effect because consumers have debts and savings. A fall (or rise) in the nominal wage rate induces a fall (or rise) in the price, then by negative real balance effect, the unemployment rate rises (or falls), and we get a negative relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. This conclusion is based on the premise of utility maximisation of consumers and profit maximisation of firms. Therefore, we present a microeconomic foundation for the Phillips curve. We also examine the effects of fiscal policy financed by seigniorage, which is represented by left-ward shift of the Phillips curve.

scholarly journals Microeconomic Foundation of the Phillips Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 14-26
Author(s):  
Yasuhito Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
Overlapping Generations Model ◽  
Negative Relation

AbstractIt is an important problem to derive negative relation between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, that is, the Phillips curve without market imperfection. We derive the Phillips curve using an overlapping generations model under monopolistic competition. We consider the effects of exogenous changes in labor productivity. An increase (decrease) in the labor productivity in a period induces a decrease (increase) in the employment, an increase (decrease) in the unemployment rate and a falling (rising) in the price of the goods in the same period. Then, given the price in the previous period the inflation rate falls (rises). This conclusion is based on the premise of utility maximization of consumers and profit maximization of firms. Therefore, we have presented a microeconomic foundation of the Phillips curve.

scholarly journals Involuntary Unemployment in a Neoclassical Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
Yasuhito Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Wage Rate ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Returns To Scale ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Olg Model ◽  
Neoclassical Model ◽  
Involuntary Unemployment

AbstractWe show the existence of involuntary unemployment without assuming wage rigidity using a neoclassical model of consumption and production. We consider a case of indivisible labor supply and increasing returns to scale under monopolistic competition. We derive involuntary unemployment by considering utility maximization of consumers and profit maximization of firms in an overlapping generations (OLG) model with two or three generations. In a two-periods OLG model it is possible that a reduction of the nominal wage rate reduces unemployment. However, if we consider a three-periods OLG model including a childhood period, a reduction of the nominal wage rate does not necessarily reduce unemployment.

scholarly journals THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN PORTUGAL

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (60) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agostinho Silvestre Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Labour Productivity Growth ◽  
Average Labour Productivity ◽  
Wage Inflation

This paper estimates the Phillips curve in Portugal using the Johansen Method, with the wage inflation rate as a dependent variable, based on annual data from the period 1954-1995. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, in the long term, the wage inflation rate relates positively to the inflation rate and negatively to the unemployment rate, as expected. There is also a positive relationship between the wage inflation rate and the average labour productivity growth index. Secondly, in the short term, the variation of the wage inflation rate relates negatively and significantly to the error correction mechanism with a negative unitary coefficient; therefore, there is a quick and significant response to the equilibrium error between the wage inflation rate and its determinants. Besides this adjustment, the wage inflation rate responds positively to a lagged wage inflation rate. The variation in the unemployment rate and the average labour productivity growth present the expected signal, negative and positive respectively, but without significance in the short term. The dummy that refers to the April 1974 revolution is significant.

Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Pierdzioch ◽  
Georg Stadtmann ◽  
Jan-Christoph Rülke
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Practical Relevance ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
Quantity Theory ◽  
Okun's Law

Abstract The quantity theory of money, Okun’s law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which forecasts of the growth rate of money supply correlate in a proportional way with forecasts of the inflation rate. We also found that forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and forecasts of the growth rate of real output are consistent with Okun’s law. Evidence of a systematic link between forecasts of the inflation rate and forecasts of the unemployment rate, however, is not strong.

scholarly journals The Business Cycle, Inflation, and Unemployment Rate Nexus: An Empirical Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Tito Belchior Silva Moreira ◽  
Michel Constantino ◽  
George Henrique de Moura Cunha ◽  
Paulo Roberto Pires de Sousa ◽  
Luciano Balbino dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
American Economy

This paper revisits the main assumption regarding the original Phillips curve regarding the American economy, in which one assumes that the unemployment rate causes an inflation rate. In this context, this paper aims to evaluate if the variance of the inflation rate affects the unemployment rate and, besides, if there is a one-way causality from the variance of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. Based on quarterly time series from 1959:04 to 2019:04 the empirical results show, via OLS and GMM methods, that the monetary policy affects the business cycle, and, in turn, the business cycle impacts the unemployment rate. Hence, the monetary policy affects indirectly the unemployment rate via the business cycle. On the other hand, the variance of the inflation rate contributes to an increase in the unemployment rate, consequently, there isn’t a trade-off between the unemployment rate and the variance of the inflation rate. Moreover, there is a one-way causality from the variance of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. This is the contribution of this paper. At last, based on the Phillips curve, one expects that the unemployment rate causes the inflation rate. However, the Granger causality tests display a two-way causality relation between both variables.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis on The Existence of The Phillips Curve

2018 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 05063
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Diana Nabila Chau Abdullah ◽  
Razleena Razali ◽  
Mohamad Luqman Al-Hakim Md Saleh
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Income ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
High Unemployment Rate ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
High Inflation

The Phillips curve shows the trade-off relationship between the inflation and unemployment rates. A rise in inflation due to the high economic growth, more jobs are available and therefore unemployment will fall. However, the existence of the Phillips curve in high-income countries has not been much discussed. Countries with high income should have low unemployment rate, suggesting a high inflation. However, some high-income countries, the United States in 1970s for example, could not avert stagflation whereby high unemployment rate and inflation occurred in the same time. This situation is contrary to the Phillips curve. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the existence of the Phillips curve in high-income countries for the period 1990-2014 using the panel data analysis. The most interesting finding of this study is the existence of a bidirectional relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate in both long and short runs. Therefore, the governments should choose to stabilize inflation rate or reduce unemployment rate

scholarly journals Causal Linkage between Inflation and Unemployment: An evidence from the Selected MENA Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Tarek Kacemi ◽  
Sallahuddin Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Causal Association ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Panel Granger Causality

The current study measures the causal association between inflation and unemployment employing Phillips Curve approach from 1990 until 2016 for selected MENA countries. Granger causality and the heterogeneous causality methods for Panel are employed by this study as proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin. This causality test has an advantage over the panel Granger causality as it considers two dimensions of heterogeneity. The finding revealed a unidirectional causality between unemployment and inflation with Panel Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger causality but not in the panel Granger causality test. Therefore, the governments should choose to stabilize inflation rate or reduce unemployment rate.

scholarly journals Testing of the Phillips Curve in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-135
Author(s):  
Mochamad Choirul Anwar ◽  
Avi Budi Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Unemployment Problem

This study aims to determine how the results of Phillips theory testing in 34 provinces in Indonesia based on the main sectors contributing to the GRDP. The analytical method used in this study is Product Moment correlation analysis to determine the relationship between the inflation rate variable and the unemployment rate variable. The data used in this study are data on open unemployment and inflation rates taken in 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2014-2018. The results of this study indicate there is no Phillips curve pattern in 34 provinces in Indonesia. The inflation rate variable and the unemployment rate variable in 34 provinces in Indonesia based on the main sectors contributing to the GRDP have a positive but very weak relationship with a correlation value of 0.1089. The problem of price volatility (inflation) contributes, although not significantly to the emergence of the unemployment problem. Government policies are needed to control inflation and reduce unemployment rates such as fuel subsidies, corporate tax reductions, export tax reductions, and control of raw material prices considering that the results of this study indicate that rising inflation will be followed by an increase in unemployment.

scholarly journals Negative Real Balance Effects in the Presence of Involuntary Unemployment

Ekonomika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-66
Author(s):  
Yasuhito Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Wage Rate ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Pension System ◽  
The Other ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Positive Real ◽  
Overlapping Generations Model ◽  
Real Balance ◽  
Involuntary Unemployment ◽  
Younger Generation

We examine positive or negative real balance effect (or so-called Pigou effect) by falls in the nominal wage rate and the prices of the goods in situations where there is involuntary unemployment using a three-generations overlapping generations model with childhood period and pay-as-you go pension system for the older generation consumers. We will show that if the net savings of the younger generation consumers are larger than their debts due to consumption in their childhood period, there exists positive real balance effect and the employment increases by a fall in the nominal wage rate; on the other hand, if the net savings of the younger generation consumers are smaller than their debts, there exists negative real balance effect and the employment decreases by a fall in the nominal wage rate.

scholarly journals The impact of economic factors on the relationships between psychological contract breach and work outcomes: a meta-analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thushel Jayaweera ◽  
Matthijs Bal ◽  
Katharina Chudzikowski ◽  
Simon de Jong
Keyword(s):  
Job Performance ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Psychological Contract ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Psychological Contract Breach ◽  
Contract Breach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Outcome Relationship ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the macroeconomic factors that may moderate the psychological contract breach (PCB) and work outcome relationship.Design/methodology/approachThis study conducted a meta-analysis based on data from 134 studies.FindingsThe study revealed that the inflation rate and the unemployment rate of a country moderated the association among employee PCB, job performance and turnover.Research limitations/implicationsThe availability of more detailed macroeconomic data against the PCB and outcome relationship for other countries and studies examining the impact of micro-economic data for PCB and outcome relationship would provide a better understanding of the context.Practical implicationsThe authors believe that the results highlight the importance of the national economy since it impacts individual outcomes following a breach.Social implicationsEmployment policies to capture the impact of macroeconomic circumstances as discussed.Originality/valueOne of the valuable contributions made by this paper is that the authors capture the current accumulative knowledge regarding the breach and performance and breach and turnover relationship. Second, the study examines how the inflation rate and unemployment rate could moderate the association between PCB and job performance and turnover.

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