Effects of Choice Restriction on Accuracy and User Experience in an Internet-Based Geopolitical Forecasting Task

Large-scale geopolitical forecasting tournaments have emerged in recent years as effective testbeds for conducting research into novel forecasting tools and methods. A challenge of such tournaments involves the distribution of forecasting load across forecasters, since there are often more forecasting questions than an individual forecaster can answer. Intelligent load distribution, or triage, may therefore be helpful in ensuring that all questions have sufficient numbers of forecasts to benefit from crowd-based aggregation and that individual forecasters are matched to the questions for which they are best suited. A possible downside of triage, however, is that it restricts the choices of forecasters, potentially degrading motivation and accuracy. In two studies involving pools of novice forecasters recruited online, we examined the impact of limiting forecaster choice on forecasters’ accuracy and subjective experience, including motivation. In Study 1, we tested the impact of restricted choice by comparing the forecasting accuracy and subjective experience of users who perceived they did or did not have choice in the questions they forecasted. In Study 2, we further tested the impact of restricted choice by providing users with different menu sizes of questions from which to choose. In both studies, we found no evidence that limiting forecaster choice adversely affected forecasting accuracy or subjective experience. This suggests that in large-scale forecasting tournaments, it may be possible to implement choice-limiting triage strategies without sacrificing individual accuracy and motivation.

A decision-neuroscientific intervention to improve cognitive recovery after stroke

Functional recovery after stroke is dose-dependent on the amount of rehabilitative training. However, rehabilitative training is subject to motivational hurdles. Decision neuroscience formalizes drivers and dampers of behaviour and provides strategies for tipping motivational trade-offs and behaviour change. Here, we used one such strategy, upfront voluntary choice restriction (‘precommitment’), and tested if it can increase the amount of self-directed rehabilitative training in severely impaired stroke patients. In this randomized controlled study, stroke patients with working-memory deficits (n = 83) were prescribed daily self-directed gamified cognitive training as an add-on to standard therapy during post-acute inpatient neurorehabilitation. Patients allocated to the precommitment intervention could choose to restrict competing options to self-directed training, specifically the possibility to meet visitors. This upfront choice restriction was opted for by all patients in the intervention group and highly effective. Patients in the precommitment group performed the prescribed self-directed gamified cognitive training twice as often as control group patients who were not offered precommitment (on 50% vs. 21% of days, pcorr = .004, d = .87, CI95% = [.31, 1.42]), and, as a consequence, reached a three times higher total training dose (90.21 vs. 33.60 minutes, pcorr = .004, d = .83, CI95% = [.27, 1.38]). And, add-on self-directed cognitive training was associated with stronger improvements in visuospatial and verbal working-memory performance (pcorr =.002, d = .72, and pcorr = .036, d = .62). Our decision-neuroscientific add-on intervention strongly increased the performed amount of an effective cognitive training in severely impaired stroke patients. These results warrant a full clinical trial to directly link decision neuroscientific interventions to clinical outcome.

WOMEN OBJECTIFICATION IN THE TESTAMENTS BY MARGARET ATWOOD (2019)

The purpose of this analysis is to expose the issue of women objectification in novel The Testaments (2019) by Margaret Atwood. The issue of women objectification refers to the various ways men objectify and subordinate women’s characters in every aspect of women’s life. This analysis focuses on men’s actions in restricting women’s life choices and using religion as a shield to regulate women’s body. This analysis is text-based interpretation based on the concept of women objectification theory proposed by Martha Nusbaum. This analysis uses fictional devices such as character, plot (conflict) and setting that contribute in revealing the issue. The result of the study reveals the way men objectify women is done two ways; they are choice restriction and religion distortion.

The role of decision criterion in the Deese–Roediger–McDermott (DRM) false recognition memory: False memory falls and rises as a function of restriction on criterion setting

How much of the Deese–Roediger–McDermott (DRM) false memory is attributable to decision criterion is so far a controversial issue. Previous studies typically used explicit warnings against accepting the critical lure to investigate this issue. The assumption is that if the false memory results from using a liberally biased criterion, it should be greatly reduced or eliminated by an explicit warning against accepting the critical lure. Results showed that warning was generally ineffective. We asked the question of whether subjects can substantially reduce false recognition without being warned when the test forces them to make a distinction between true and false memories. Using a two-alternative forced choice in which criterion plays a relatively smaller role, we showed that subjects could indeed greatly reduce the rate of false recognition. However, when the forced-choice restriction was removed from the two-item choice test, the rate of false recognition rebounded to that of the hit for studied list words, indicating the role of criterion in false recognition.

DISTRACTION OF FAVORABLE STATE OF ENVIRONMENT AS BASIS FOR MORAL HARM COMPENSATION

The article shows that moral harm compensation is very important for problem solution in legal support of favorable state of environment. This harm is done to owners and users of natural resources caused by environmental distraction. It is stated that illegal actions encroaching not only on non-material benefits but also on property right of citizens. Such actions can be a source of physical and moral sufferings. Physical and moral sufferings (moral harm) are caused by property right violations. Such sufferings connect with change of citizen property status which led to residence choice restriction; freedom movement and health deterioration. Only individuals can feel physical and moral sufferings caused by violence for non-material benefits and property. The stated argument doesn't assume moral and physical sufferings for legal entity. As a result of this there is no legal basis for moral harm compensation for legal entities. As a conclusion it is stated that recommendations for collective claims of moral harm compensation in case of ecological delict contradict "moral harm" definition. Department of moral harm compensation which was developed thanks to non-material benefits violation or property rights violation do not have necessary reflection in ecological legislation. According to this it is possible to use standards of the Civil code of the Russian Federation for moral harm compensation at ecological offenses. Negative changes of parameters can be the basis for claim statement about moral harm compensation. These parameters characterize a favorable condition of surrounding environment caused by pollution or natural objects damage. Physical and/or moral sufferings of citizens can be calculated proceeding from market difference of real estate and the land to negative impact and after its pollution or damage of natural objects.

DYNAMICS OF CHOICE RESTRICTION IN LARGE GAMES

We study games in which the number of players are large, and hence outcomes are independent of the identities of the players. Game models typically study how choices made by individual rational players determine game outcomes. We extend this model to include an implicit player — the society, who makes actions available to players and incurs certain costs in doing so. In the course of play, an option a may be chosen only by a small number of players and hence may become too expensive to maintain, so the society may remove it from the set of available actions. This results in a change in the game and the players strategize afresh taking this change into account. We highlight the mutual recursiveness of individual rationality and societal rationality in this context. Specifically, we study two questions: When players play according to given strategy specifications, which actions of players should the society restrict and when, so that the social cost is minimized eventually? Conversely, assuming a set of rules by which society restricts choices, can players strategize in such a way as to ensure certain outcomes? We discuss solutions in finite memory strategies.