Evaluation of Managerial Overconfidence, Cash Holding, and Investment Efficiency in Companies

Managers’ overconfidence leads to overestimating their ability to manage cash sources. Holding more cash may result in overinvestment in projects and investment inefficiency consequently. The present study aims to investigate the effect of cash holding on investment efficiency with the moderating role of managerial overconfidence in Iranian companies. All listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange, excluding banks, insurance, pension funds, and financial intermediaries, are included in the research. We have used data from financial statements of 91 companies over the period from 2010 to 2018 and conducted multiple regression models to test the hypotheses based on pooled and panel data set with fixed effects. The results indicate a positive relationship between managerial overconfidence and cash holding. The effect of cash holding on investment efficiency turns out to be significantly negative. Furthermore, managerial overconfidence has a significant moderating effect on the relation of the variables. This study is almost the first one, which has been done in emerging markets, so the study’s findings not only contribute to the existing literature on managerial overconfidence and investment efficiency but also assist policymakers, managers, and investors in making effective decisions.

THE ROLE OF INTERNAL FINANCING IN MEDIATING THE EFFECT OF MANAGERIAL OVERCONFIDENCE AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE TOWARDS INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY

This study aims to examine empirically the factors that influence investment efficiency in State-Owned Enterprises on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study was tested with two independent variables are managerial overconfidence and corporate governance, intervening variable is internal financing. The object of this research is the state-owned company for the period 2011-2018. 10 companies as the sample using purposive sampling technique. The analysis used in this research is panel data regression analysis. The results of this study found that investment efficiency in state-owned enterprises in Indonesia is largely determined by managerial overconfidence bias. Managers who have an overconfidence seek more aggressive and risky ventures so that they invest excessively beyond optimal levels. Managerial overconfidence in a manager can also strengthen the choice of internal financing, especially in state-owned companies. However, investment efficiency in this study is not influenced by corporate governance and internal financing. Corporate governance has also proven to have no role in corporate funding decisions. The role of internal financing as mediation was not found in this study.

Internal-Control Willingness and Managerial Overconfidence

Internal control is a branch of accounting subject, and accounting control and risk management are the core of enterprise internal control. Previous studies have shown that high-quality internal control inhibits or regulates managerial overconfidence (MOC). However, it is believed that the influential factors of internal-control quality (ICQ) are normally objective factors, such as corporate characteristics, financial status, and governance structure. Corresponding to another type of constituent element, that is, the subjective factor, which we called internal-control willingness, has not been explored. In this study, we defined internal-control willingness as the degrees of the subjective initiative of the internal-control construction and execution activities of enterprises. In addition, we proposed a method to measure internal-control willingness based on text analysis and principal component analysis using Python, and then, we tested its impact on ICQ and MOC. Our findings are as follows: (A) internal-control willingness has a positive impact on ICQ, and (B) internal-control willingness lowers MOC. Our study introduces subjective initiative factors into the field of internal control and also extends the understanding of internal-control theory. Based on empirical conclusions, we suggested that regulatory authorities and corporate boards improve incentive mechanisms to jointly strengthen the internal-control willingness of all employees, so as to help enterprise managers operate rationally.

The impact of corporate governance measures on firm performance: the influences of managerial overconfidence

The paper aims to investigate the impact of corporate governance (CG) measures on firm performance and the role of managerial behavior on the relationship of corporate governance mechanisms and firm performance using a Chinese listed firm. This study used CG mechanisms measures internal and external corporate governance, which is represented by independent board, dual board leadership, ownership concentration as measure of internal CG and debt financing and product market competition as an external CG measures. Managerial overconfidence was measured by the corporate earnings forecasts. Firm performance is measured by ROA and TQ. To address the study objective, the researcher used panel data of 11,634 samples of Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2018. To analyze the proposed hypotheses, the study employed system Generalized Method of Moments estimation model. The study findings showed that ownership concentration and product market competition have a positive significant relationship with firm performance measured by ROA and TQ. Dual leadership has negative relationship with TQ, and debt financing also has a negative significant association’s with both measures of firm performance ROA and TQ. Moreover, the empirical results also showed managerial overconfidence negatively influences the relationship of board independence, dual leadership, and ownership concentration with firm performance. However, managerial overconfidence positively moderates the impact of debt financing on firm performance measured by Tobin’s Q and negative influence on debt financing and operational firm performance relationship. These findings have several contributions: first, the study extends the literature on the relationship between CG and a firm’s performance by using the Chinese CG structure. Second, this study provides evidence that how managerial behavioral bias interacts with CG mechanisms to affect firm performance, which has not been studied in previous literature. Therefore, the results of this study contribute to the theoretical perspective by providing an insight into the influencing role of managerial behavior in the relationship between CG practices and firm performance in an emerging markets economy. Hence, the empirical result of the study provides important managerial implications for the practice and is important for policy-makers seeking to improve corporate governance in the emerging market economy.

CEO Compensation, Managerial Overconfidence and Performance of Sharia Compliant Firms and Non-Sharia Compliant Firms: Evidence from Listed GCC Firms

Background: The positive relationship between managerial overconfidence and performance implies that overconfident managers overestimate their ability to create value and improve their firm’s performance, which also lead to overestimate their own firms returns by taking over other firms. Purpose: The study examines relationship between managerial overconfidence, CEO compensation, and performance of sharia compliant firms and non-sharia compliant firms for 207 GCC listed firms from 2010 to 2014. Methodology: The study sample comprised of 207 firms for the main empirical analysis. The data used in this study were collected from GCC stock exchange data-base and firms financial report provided by website argaam.com between 2010 and 2018. Findings: The study found that managerial overconfidence is positively and significantly related to firm performance. CEO compensation and managerial overconfidence is also associated positively with sharia–compliant firms’ performance. The findings supported first hypothesis that managerial overconfidence leads to better firms’ performance. Originality: The study has revealed a positive impact of sharia compliant firms’ managerial overconfidence on firm performance. Furthermore, the effect of CEO compensation is favorable in sharia compliant firms.

Managerial ability and stock price crash risk – the role of managerial overconfidence

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relation between managerial ability and stock price crash risk, conditional on managerial overconfidence. In addition, conditional on managerial overconfidence, the authors investigate the effect of managerial ability on firms’ choice of bad news hoarding channels, which result in a stock price crash. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 24,289 firm-years from companies listed on Compustat and CRSP from 1994 to 2018, the authors conduct panel regression analysis. Findings The authors find that managerial ability is positively associated with stock price crash risk only when managerial overconfidence is high. Furthermore, the authors find that managerial ability seems to exacerbate (attenuate) the bad news withholding by the overconfident managers using the earnings guidance (earnings management) channel. The authors find limited evidence that high-ability managers are likely to withhold bad news through the overinvestment channel and “other channels” when managers are overconfident. Finally, the authors find that the joint effect of managerial overconfidence and managerial ability on firms’ crash risk is more pronounced when there is a material weakness in firms’ internal controls, high investor belief heterogeneity and high information asymmetry. However, this effect appears to dissipate during the recent financial crisis in 2008. Originality/value This research reveals that managerial ability is costly to firms by engendering bad news hoardings and stock price crash risk when managers are overconfident. It also sheds light on how managerial overconfidence and managerial ability affect managers’ choice of bad news withholding channels and stock price crash risk. Finally, the paper is of practical value to the board of directors in selecting the prospective executives.

Managerial overconfidence in capital structure decisions and its link to aggregate demand: An agent-based model perspective

Objective This study aims to connect two strands of the psychology and economics literature, i.e., behavioural finance and agent-based macroeconomics, to assess the impact of managerial overconfidence at the micro and macro levels of the economy as a whole. Method We build a macroeconomic stock-flow consistent agent-based model that is calibrated for the specific case of Poland to explore whether the overconfidence of top corporate managers in the context of their initial capital structure decisions is detrimental for the firms being managed in this way, the financial market dynamics, and the selected macroeconomic indicators. We model heterogeneous firms with different capital structure decision criteria depending on their degree of managerial overconfidence. Our model also includes a complete macroeconomic closure with aggregated households, capital producers, banking, and a public sector. Results We find that firms with overconfident managers outperform in terms of investment and size but are also more fragile, thereby making them more likely to default. Finally, we run policy shocks and show that while investors’ flight to liquidity creates financial turmoil and increases the probability of default. Conclusions This paper contributes to the knowledge base by linking behavioural corporate finance and agent-based macroeconomics. In general, the excess overconfidence on the micro level, either an increase in the proportion of overconfident firms or a higher degree of overconfidence among managers, has a strong destabilizing impact on the economy as a whole on the macro level.