Assessment of the impact of situational uncertainty factors in the project management plane

Рассмотрено влияние ситуационной характеристики на реализацию проекта капитального строительства. Анализируются варианты оптимального управления строительством.

Valuation on financial markets: Calculations of emotions and emotional calculations

How do actors on financial markets transform the plethora of informational signals into concrete valuations of traded assets? How do they make decisions in an environment characterized by fundamental uncertainty? Although there is a rich tradition in economic sociology suggesting that emotions and other subjective factors play a decisive role in this regard, empirical studies of their relevance for economic action have remained rare. The present study seeks to fill this void. It investigates the emotional underpinnings of the practices of financial valuation in the German financial sector. Drawing on in-depth interviews with, and ethnographic observations of day traders and fund managers, the study shows that emotions are essential ingredients of their collective calculative practices. Results of the present study yield three empirically grounded key concepts that advance understanding of emotions in financial valuation: First, subjectively experienced market feelings enable traders and managers to imagine imminent market futures. Second, market sentiments reflect traders’ attributions of specific emotional qualities to financial markets and facilitate their understanding of market behaviour. Third, floor emotions are collective emotions in which traders become involved in organizations and on trading floors that help mitigate situational uncertainty.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE SCIENTIFIC AND METHODICAL APPARATUS OF DISCLOSURE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROBLEMS OF INTERACTION

For a large class of systems analysis tasks, an important issue is the disclosure of uncertainties. This is due to the variety of goals, properties and characteristics of the studied objects. Today, the task of revealing the uncertainty of conflicts in the tasks of choosing the goals of plans and plans in the process of interaction of partners or opposition of competitors or opponents remains relevant. There are methods in systems analysis that allow you to solve these problems in some cases. They are based on the application of methods of mathematical analysis and probability theory. However, these methods are applicable only to problems in which the number of partners and the arguments of the objective functions that determine the purpose of their activities coincide. Since in practice, as a rule, such a restriction is not met, it is important to find approaches to solving problems of disclosing the uncertainty of conflicts in the tasks of choosing the goals of plans and plans in the process of interaction of partners arbitrary number of partners and arguments of their target functions. The paper formalizes the problem of revealing uncertainty in the interaction of partners, in which the number of arguments of the objective functions is not necessarily equal to the number of partners. The analysis of the existing approach to the solution of the formulated problem in the absence and presence of situational uncertainty for two and any number of partners is also carried out. Based on the application of technical constraints, an approach to solving the problem is proposed and software and algorithmic support for its implementation is formed. This approach is based on the preliminary formation of the area of acceptable solutions (Pareto area) and the subsequent search for a rational solution in this area. The proposed approach can be applied to solving the problem of disclosing the uncertainty of conflicts both in the absence and in the presence of situational uncertainty. Software-algorithmic implementation of the author's approach to solving the research problem allows to automate individual stages of problem solving.

Motivation in Words: Promotion- and Prevention-Oriented Leader Communication in Times of Crisis

Research demonstrates that situational uncertainty or crisis strongly influences the endorsement of the more charismatic or decisive leadership styles and that inspirational communication is at the heart of these styles. However, there is currently little understanding of what leaders should convey through their communication to be endorsed in crisis. Based on regulatory focus theory, we argue that times of crisis make leaders who use more promotion-oriented communication more likely to be endorsed and leaders who use more prevention-oriented communication less likely to be endorsed. Results of Study 1, an archival study of U.S. presidents, show that presidents who use more promotion-oriented communication are more endorsed but only if economic growth is low or if inflation is high, while no effects of the use of prevention orientation of communication surfaces. Results of Study 2, a laboratory experiment, show that leaders who communicate a promotion orientation, as compared to a prevention orientation, motivate higher performance in participants in a crisis condition, but that there is no difference in a no-crisis (i.e. control) condition. Finally, results of Study 3, a scenario experiment, demonstrate that organizational leaders that communicate more promotion-oriented (as opposed to more prevention-oriented) have a higher chance of being endorsed but only in times of crisis and that this effect is mediated by followers’ motivation to realize the plans of the leader.

The effect of self-leadership on work role performance in teams

This research examined the effect of self-leadership strategies on individuals’ work role performance in teams. Using an experimental policy-capturing design, self-leadership, task interdependence and situational uncertainty were manipulated in two studies. Moreover, the moderating effect of psychological collectivism orientation on the self-leadership performance relation was explored. Results from multilevel analyses revealed that in Study 1, self-leadership had a positive effect on individual task and team member work role performance. Study 2 replicated and extended these results by showing positive effects of self-leadership on individuals’ team member proficiency, adaptivity and proactivity in teams. Furthermore, collectivism orientation moderates the effect of self-leadership on team member proficiency. Implications of the findings are identified, limitations are discussed and areas for future research are proposed.