The Sensitivity of the Fitch Wind Farm Parameterization to a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme

Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds can significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, until now, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. First, we simulate a wind plant in a pseudo-steady state under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, MYNN consistently predicts internal wakes that are 0.25–1.5 m s−1 stronger than internal 3DPBL wakes. However, because MYNN predicts stronger inflow winds than the 3DPBL, MYNN predicts average capacity factors that are as large as 13 percentage points higher than with the 3DPBL, depending on the stability. To extend this sensitivity study, we conduct a month-long case study with both PBL schemes centered on the Vineyard Wind 1 lease area in the mid-Atlantic United States. Under stable and unstable conditions averaged across the month, MYNN again predicts stronger internal waking—by about 0.25 m s−1. However, again due to stronger plant inflow wind speeds in MYNN, the 3DPBL generates 4.7 %–7.8 % less power than MYNN in August 2020, depending on the turbine build-out scenario. Differences between PBL schemes can be even larger for individual instances in time. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.

Uncertainty profiles in engineering-service development: exploring supplier co-creation

PurposeEngineering service (ES) development, particularly with supplier co-creation, is nontrivial, and the literature has acknowledged the high relevance of uncertainty in this context. This study aims to investigate the relationship between different supplier co-creation modes (operationally independent [OI] and operationally dependent [OD]) and uncertainty criticality arising during ES development.Design/methodology/approachThis study develops a conceptual framework of five uncertainty types by synthesizing the relevant literature from service management and new product development. This framework guided the empirical work of two in-depth case studies, describing uncertainty criticality in OI and OD supplier co-creation.FindingsThe findings show that environmental and organizational uncertainty were generally of high criticality for ES development independently of the supplier co-creation mode. Moreover, uncertainty criticality varied between the two cases, with higher criticality of technical and relational uncertainty as well as less resource uncertainty experienced by the focal organization in the OD case. This suggests that supplier co-creation constitutes an uncertainty reallocation.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research is needed to test the generalizability of the qualitative results through quantitative studies.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the service management literature by showing the varying uncertainty profiles manufacturing organizations face when engaging in different supplier co-creation modes. Furthermore, this research provides novel insights on ES development to the broader discussion on ES management.

The Birgitta Field, Block 22/19a, UK North Sea

Birgitta Field was discovered by well 22/19-1 which encountered a 230 ft gas–condensate column in Triassic Skagerrak Formation and tested at a combined rate of 38.3 MMscfgd and 3750 bcpd. The tilted-fault block trap forms the crest of a Triassic ‘pod’ or mini-basin formed by salt withdrawal during Triassic extension, further rotated and eroded during Jurassic extension. Field extent is supported by apparent seismic hydrocarbon indications. An early oil charge was likely converted to condensate by Plio-Pleistocene gas influx and rapid burial, whilst an underlying palaeoresidual gas column reflects some trap leakage.Birgitta typifies certain Triassic reservoir characteristics in this part of the Central North Sea. The thick, relatively high net:gross reservoir comprises moderate to poorly sorted, sub-lithic to sub-arkosic sandstones deposited in a dryland braided fluvial system. Pore-lining chlorite overgrowths dominate the pore fabric, reducing pore throat sizes and contributing to appreciable levels of non-effective micro-porosity and hence elevated water saturation. Key petrophysical challenges are the accurate determination of effective porosity and water saturation.Birgitta approaches high pressure–high temperature conditions and illustrates some of the challenges of progressing small, unappraised field tie-backs. These include resource uncertainty, compartmentalization risk, infrastructure access and marginal economics. Evaluated for development several times, Birgitta presently remains undeveloped.

Investigation of the Modulation of the Tidal Stream Resource by Ocean Currents through a Complex Tidal Channel

Tidal energy has the opportunity to bring reliable electricity to remote regions in the world. A resource assessment, including the response of the tidal stream resource to fluctuations in the Indonesian Through Flow (ITF) is performed using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) to simulate four different scenarios for flow through the Lombok Strait in Indonesia. Tidal currents simulated with a variable ITF are compared against a tide-only (TO) simulation to identify how the ITF spatially changes the resource across the Lombok Strait. We find that the uncertainty in the tidal currents from the TO simulation is 50% greater than the variable ITF simulation. To identify change to resource, surface velocities from Strong ITF and Weak ITF scenarios are considered. As a result of the fluctuations in the ITF, certain characteristics, such as the asymmetry and magnitude, of the tidal current vary greatly. However, the magnitude of change is variable, with regions to the west of the strait experiencing greater modulation than in the east, suggesting that resource uncertainty can be minimised with selective site positioning.