The Deutsche Bundesbank's Concept of Monetary Policy, With Particular Reference to its Choice of Intermediate Variables in the Period 1972-1979

<p>The maintenance of price stability is the Bundesbank's ultimate objective. The memory of two hyperinflations within a 30-year period has made the fight against inflation of paramount social and political importance. In the Bank's view inflation engenders uncertainties which may jeopardise capital investment on which the competitiveness of German industry as well as full employment and economic growth depends. The Bundesbank pursues this goal by setting the marginal cost of central bank money required by the banks to finance their expansion. Thus, both the liquidity of the banking system and the cost of borrowing are controlled. This does not necessarily mean that the banks' loan rate of interest is the Bundesbank's Intermediate target. In fact, the Bank does not have one single intermediate target. Since the Bank's views of the monetary sector are manifested in the form of an interlocking system of financial variables, the selection of an appropriate intermediate target depends on the actual economic situation. In this context, the money stock supply (M3) is seen by the Bundesbank as functionally related to bank lending and the accumulation of long-term funds at the banks (monetary capital formation). An increase in interest rates would reduce bank lending, stimulate monetary capital formation and hence reduce the money stock supply (M3). In addition, it would check the utilisation of the money stock supply. This is seen as important because once money has entered the system it may generate unacceptable expenditure flows. To control the growth of the money stock supply, the Bundesbank relies on monetary capital formation, because small stocks of public debt rule out large-scale open market operations. In the Bank's view monetary policy should aim at keeping the banks' loan rate of interest as closely as possible to the natural rate. Lags in this Wicksellian transmission process may arise if the banks have ample margins between their loan and deposit rates when a restrictive monetary policy is implemented. As deposit rates adjust sooner than loan rates to a change in market rates, this also blunts the immediate impact of a policy change. The Bundesbank favours flexible rates of exchange in order to safeguard the financial system against inflows of foreign capital. It would welcome an appreciation of the D-Mark as a contribution to price stability, even though it could result in a loss of employment and exports as it stimulates German business to invest abroad. Furthermore, the Bank aims at constraining the monetary disturbances arising from public sector deficits and collective wage bargaining by means of its annual monetary growth target. This should serve as a signal to non-banks, which they are supposed to internalise in their decision-making. During the review period, the effectiveness of these safeguards was small as witnessed by inflows of foreign capital, large public sector deficits and excessive wage settlements. Moreover, the Bundesbank has been confronted with the development of parallel markets, in particular the Eurocurrency markets, in which borrowers can avoid the effects of its constraints.</p>

The Deutsche Bundesbank's Concept of Monetary Policy, With Particular Reference to its Choice of Intermediate Variables in the Period 1972-1979

<p>The maintenance of price stability is the Bundesbank's ultimate objective. The memory of two hyperinflations within a 30-year period has made the fight against inflation of paramount social and political importance. In the Bank's view inflation engenders uncertainties which may jeopardise capital investment on which the competitiveness of German industry as well as full employment and economic growth depends. The Bundesbank pursues this goal by setting the marginal cost of central bank money required by the banks to finance their expansion. Thus, both the liquidity of the banking system and the cost of borrowing are controlled. This does not necessarily mean that the banks' loan rate of interest is the Bundesbank's Intermediate target. In fact, the Bank does not have one single intermediate target. Since the Bank's views of the monetary sector are manifested in the form of an interlocking system of financial variables, the selection of an appropriate intermediate target depends on the actual economic situation. In this context, the money stock supply (M3) is seen by the Bundesbank as functionally related to bank lending and the accumulation of long-term funds at the banks (monetary capital formation). An increase in interest rates would reduce bank lending, stimulate monetary capital formation and hence reduce the money stock supply (M3). In addition, it would check the utilisation of the money stock supply. This is seen as important because once money has entered the system it may generate unacceptable expenditure flows. To control the growth of the money stock supply, the Bundesbank relies on monetary capital formation, because small stocks of public debt rule out large-scale open market operations. In the Bank's view monetary policy should aim at keeping the banks' loan rate of interest as closely as possible to the natural rate. Lags in this Wicksellian transmission process may arise if the banks have ample margins between their loan and deposit rates when a restrictive monetary policy is implemented. As deposit rates adjust sooner than loan rates to a change in market rates, this also blunts the immediate impact of a policy change. The Bundesbank favours flexible rates of exchange in order to safeguard the financial system against inflows of foreign capital. It would welcome an appreciation of the D-Mark as a contribution to price stability, even though it could result in a loss of employment and exports as it stimulates German business to invest abroad. Furthermore, the Bank aims at constraining the monetary disturbances arising from public sector deficits and collective wage bargaining by means of its annual monetary growth target. This should serve as a signal to non-banks, which they are supposed to internalise in their decision-making. During the review period, the effectiveness of these safeguards was small as witnessed by inflows of foreign capital, large public sector deficits and excessive wage settlements. Moreover, the Bundesbank has been confronted with the development of parallel markets, in particular the Eurocurrency markets, in which borrowers can avoid the effects of its constraints.</p>

Methods for Integrating Extraterrestrial Radiation into Neural Network Models for Day-Ahead PV Generation Forecasting

Variability, intermittency, and limited controllability are inherent characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) generation that result in inaccurate solutions to scheduling problems and the instability of the power grid. As the penetration level of PV generation increases, it becomes more important to mitigate these problems by improving forecasting accuracy. One of the alternatives to improving forecasting performance is to include a seasonal component. Thus, this study proposes using information on extraterrestrial radiation (ETR), which is the solar radiation outside of the atmosphere, in neural network models for day-ahead PV generation forecasting. Specifically, five methods for integrating the ETR into the neural network models are presented: (1) division preprocessing, (2) multiplication preprocessing, (3) replacement of existing input, (4) inclusion as additional input, and (5) inclusion as an intermediate target. The methods were tested using two datasets in Australia using four neural network models: Multilayer perceptron and three recurrent neural network(RNN)-based models including vanilla RNN, long short-term memory, and gated recurrent unit. It was found that, among the integration methods, including the ETR as the intermediate target improved the mean squared error by 4.1% on average, and by 12.28% at most in RNN-based models. These results verify that the integration of ETR into the PV forecasting models based on neural networks can improve the forecasting performance.

An Eco-Driving Algorithm for Interoperable Automatic Train Operation

The new Automatic Train Operation (ATO) system over the standard European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) will specify the requirements that an automatic train driving system must fulfil in order to be interoperable. The driving is defined by target times located along the journey that are received from the trackside system. Then, the on-board equipment drives the train with the objective of meeting all of the target times. The use of eco-driving methods to calculate the train driving is necessary, as one of the main goals of modern train driving systems is to increase the energy efficiency. This paper presents a simulation-based optimisation algorithm to solve the eco-driving problem constrained by multiple target times. This problem aims to minimize the energy consumption subject to a commercial running time, as the classical eco-driving problem, and also to meet intermediate target times during the journey between stations to enable automatic traffic regulation, especially at junctions. The algorithm proposed combines a Differential Evolution procedure to generate possible solutions with a detailed train simulation model to evaluate them. The use of this algorithm makes possible to find accurate speed profiles that meet the requirements of multiple time objectives. The proposed Differential Evolution algorithm is capable of finding the feasible speed profile with the minimum energy consumption, obtaining a 7.7% of energy variation in the case of a journey with one intermediate target time and 3.1% in the case of two intermediate targets.

Axon guidance at the midline – a live imaging perspective

ABSTRACTDuring neural circuit formation, axons navigate several choice points to reach their final target. At each one of these intermediate targets, growth cones need to switch responsiveness from attraction to repulsion in order to move on. Molecular mechanisms that allow for the precise timing of surface expression of a new set of receptors that support the switch in responsiveness are difficult to study in vivo. Mostly, mechanisms are inferred from the observation of snapshots of many different growth cones analyzed in different preparations of tissue harvested at distinct time points. However, to really understand the behavior of growth cones at choice points, a single growth cone should be followed arriving at and leaving the intermediate target.Here, we describe a spinal cord preparation that allows for live imaging of individual axons during navigation in their intact environment. The possibility to observe single growth cones navigating their intermediate target allows for measuring growth speed, changes in morphology, or aberrant behavior. Moreover, observation of the intermediate target – the floor plate – revealed its active participation and interaction with commissural axons during midline crossing.Summary statementLive tracking of single growth cones is more informative about axonal behavior during navigation than inference of behavior from the analyses of snapshots of different growth cones.

Effect of 0.32 Caliber Bullets on Fiberglass at Various Firing Distances and Determination of Range of Firing from the Fracture Patterns on Fiberglass

Ballistics is the study of the science of the motion and behavior of a projectile during its flight in any given medium. The flight path of a bullet in cases of firearms includes: traveling down the barrel, path through the air (or in a medium), and path through the target. The damage to the target by a hurling projectile depends upon various parameters like the type of the propellant charge used, type of the firearm, the distance of firing, etc. In some instances, it becomes difficult to estimate the range of firing when the projectile has been shot through the glass as an intermediate target. Present work is based upon the effect of 0.32 caliber bullets on fiberglass fired from different ranges and determination of range of firing from by studying the fracture pattern created on the fiberglass. The present study will be helpful for the investigator to estimate an approximate range of shooting when the firing is done through the fiberglass. It will also be utilized in the estimation of the point of entry and exit on the glass and the basis of the fracture produced will provide an idea of the type of firearm used can also be estimated.

Oculomotor nerve requires an early interaction with muscle precursors for nerve guidance and branch patterning

Muscle function is dependent on innervation by the correct motor nerves. Motor nerves are composed of motor axons that extend through peripheral tissues as a compact bundle, but then diverge to create nerve branches to specific muscle targets. A transition point typically occurs as motor nerves grow near their targets, where the fasciculated nerve halts further growth, then later initiates branching to muscles. The motor nerve transition point is potentially an intermediate target acting as a guidepost to present specific cellular and molecular signals for navigation. Here we describe the navigation of the oculomotor nerve with respect to eye muscle precursor cells in mouse embryos. We found that the oculomotor nerve initially grew to the eye three days prior to the appearance of any eye muscles. The oculomotor axons spread to form a plexus within a mass of eye muscle precursors, then the nerve growth paused for more than two days. This plexus persisted during primary extraocular myogenesis, with a subsequent phase in which the nerve branched out to specific muscles. To test the functional significance of the nerve-precursor contact in the plexus, we genetically ablated muscle precursors early in nerve development, prior to nerve contact. Ablation of muscle precursors resulted in oculomotor nerve fibers failing to stop to form the plexus, but instead growing past the eye. In contrast, ablating the precursor pool at later stages, after the nerve has contacted the precursor cells, results in ectopic branching restricted near the eye. These results demonstrate that muscle precursors act as an intermediate target for nerve guidance, and are required for the oculomotor nerve to transition between nerve growth and distinct stages of terminal axon branching.