PERAN INDUSTRI MINUMAN BERALKOHOL DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: ANALISIS INPUT-OUTPUT

ABSTRACT Policy to open investment in alcoholic beverage invite pros and cons in the public. The proponents of the policy argue the importance of alcoholic investment from economic point of views. This article aims at analyzing the role of alcoholic beverage industry in Indonesian economy. The data was Input-Output Table of 2016 which was aggregated into 18 industries. Analyzes carried out were output multiplier, employment multiplier, and income multiplier as well as forward and backward linkages. The results of analyzes show that output multiplier is low, employment multiplier is high, and income multiplier is high. In addition, forward and backward linkages are both below one. From these results, it can be concluded that alcoholic beverage industry is not a leading sector in Indonesia and its role is relatively limited. Government should be cautious in opening up investment for the industry for investment, taking into account that the industry’s pulling factor to input providing industries as well as pushing factor to output using industries are relatively low. In addition, while employment multiplier is high, at present employment in alcoholic beverage is relatively limited. Keywords: Alcoholic beverage, Input output table, Output multiplier, Employment multiplier, Industrial linkage ABSTRAK Kebijakan untuk membuka investasi minuman beralkohol mengundang pro dan kontra di masyarakat. Pendukung kebijakan tersebut menyampaikan pentingnya investasi di sektor tersebut dilihat dari kepentingan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran industri minuman beralkohol dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah Tabel Input-Output tahun 2016 yang diagregasi menjadi 18 industri. Analisis yang dilakukan adalah efek pengganda output, tenaga kerja dan pendapatan serta keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa angka pengganda output rendah, angka pengganda tenaga kerja tinggi dan angka pengganda pendapatan tinggi. Selain itu, efek keterkaitan ke depan dan keterkaitan ke belakang kurang dari satu. Dengan hasil-hasil tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa industri minuman mengandung alkohol bukan merupakan sektor unggulan di Indonesia dan perannya relatif terbatas. Pemerintah perlu berhati-hati dalam membuka investasi atas industri tersebut, dengan pertimbangan bahwa daya tarik terhadap industri penyedia input dan daya dorong terhadap industri pengguna output relatif rendah. Selain itu, meskipun angka pengganda tenaga kerja tinggi, selama ini penyerapan tenaga kerja relatif rendah. Kata Kunci: Minuman beralkohol, Tabel input-output, Pengganda output, Pengganda tenaga kerja, Efek keterkaitan

The Roles of Japanese Industrial Sectors: The Perspective of Input-Output Analysis

The purpose of this study is to analyze the roles of industries in the national economy of Japan. The study employs Input-Output (IO) analysis as an analyis tool. More specifically, this study uses the parts of IO analysis, namely simple output multiplier, simple household income multiplier, index of the power of dispersion, and index of the sensitivity of dispersion as analysis devices. The analysis period of this study is 2011-2015. The results show that the consistency of several industries in influencing the Japanese national economy on the analysis period could be seen from both multipliers. Besides, the characteristics of almost all Japanese industrial sectors on the period of analysis did not change.

Tourism, accommodation, and the regional economy in Indonesia’s West Papua

This study deals with the contribution of visitor expenditure on West Papua’s regional economy. It accomplishes three objectives: (1) to estimate the economic contribution of domestic and inbound visitor expenditure; (2) to measure the economic contribution of tourist spending at various accommodation classes; and (3) to describe the use of local commodities and labor in the regional accommodation industry. To accomplish the first and second objectives, an input-output multiplier analysis was employed. As for the third objective, interviews were conducted with 35 representatives from regional accommodation establishments. Tourism is found to contribute greatly to the regional economy, as shown from the higher overall output multiplier for tourist expenditure as compared to the regional output multiplier. The output multiplier for inbound tourist expenditure is higher than the domestic tourist. Three-star accommodations are found to be the biggest contributor with outstanding inter-sectoral impact on fisheries; food, beverage, and tobacco manufacture; and agriculture. The qualitative analysis suggests the existence of a large leakage (±90%), mainly in produce and chemicals used in daily operations. Fisheries and wood furniture are the exception. Overall, the accommodation sector absorbs a considerable extent of local labor (73%), 23% of which are Indigenous Papuans.

Using Multiplier Analyses in Analyzing the Roles of Japanese Industrial Sectors

The purpose of this study is to analyze the roles of industrial sectors in the Japanese national economy by using simple output multiplier, and simple household income multiplier, the analysis tools in Input-Output (IO) analysis. The analysis period of the study is 2011. The results show that, on the period of analysis, manufacturing sector had the highest simple output multiplier value. Therefore, one can argue that an additional final demand for the sector would generate the most attractive effect to the Japanese economy by using the multiplier on the period of analysis. Conversely, the lowest value of the multiplier was owned by the real estate sector in 2011. On the other hand, from the point of view of simple household income multiplier, the highest value was owned by the construction sector on the analysis period. This result indicates that an additional yen of final demand for the sector would generate the highest new household income on the period of analysis. On the contrary, as with the previous multiplier, the real estate sector had the lowest simple household income multiplier value in 2011.

Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases more in the ZLB period than in the normal period. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62)

ANALISIS PENENTUAN SUBSEKTOR PRIORITAS PADA BIDANG KELAUTAN INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN DETERMINISTIK INPUT-OUTPUT)

The aim of this study is to determine priority subsectors in the field of Indonesian marine. The analysis is done by input-output approach. This study has found several priority subsectors classified into two groups, namely short-term and long-term priority subsector groups. Short-term priority subsectors group in the Indonesian marine sector include fish processing and preservation industries, marine tourism, marine and fisheries support, marine and fisheries education and research services, and fisheries services. Meanwhile, for the long-term priority subsectors group the Indonesian marine sector comprises oil and gas mining and refining, marine trade services, offshore mining, fishery services and shrimp industry.Keywords: Input-Output, Multiplier Effect, Backward Linkages, Forward Linkages

A DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (DSGE) MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY

One of the Government programs to spur economic growth is to improve the availability andquality of infrastructure through increased government spending on infrastructure development. In this paper, we build a DSGE model for a small open economy to predict the impact of government spending on output and welfare in Indonesia. The DSGE model uses parameters in line with the characteristics of Indonesian economy. The simulation results show that in the short run a 1% increase in government spending on consumption and investment could potentially increase economic growth by 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively. Output multiplier of government spending on consumption is estimated at 0.03, much lower than output multiplier of the government spending on investment at 0.20. The simulation results also show that government spending on investment leads to welfare improvement with welfare multiplier at 0.05. On the other hand, an increase in government spending on consumption would leadto a decline in welfare with a multiplier of -0.001.