PERAN INDUSTRI MINUMAN BERALKOHOL DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: ANALISIS INPUT-OUTPUT

ABSTRACT Policy to open investment in alcoholic beverage invite pros and cons in the public. The proponents of the policy argue the importance of alcoholic investment from economic point of views. This article aims at analyzing the role of alcoholic beverage industry in Indonesian economy. The data was Input-Output Table of 2016 which was aggregated into 18 industries. Analyzes carried out were output multiplier, employment multiplier, and income multiplier as well as forward and backward linkages. The results of analyzes show that output multiplier is low, employment multiplier is high, and income multiplier is high. In addition, forward and backward linkages are both below one. From these results, it can be concluded that alcoholic beverage industry is not a leading sector in Indonesia and its role is relatively limited. Government should be cautious in opening up investment for the industry for investment, taking into account that the industry’s pulling factor to input providing industries as well as pushing factor to output using industries are relatively low. In addition, while employment multiplier is high, at present employment in alcoholic beverage is relatively limited. Keywords: Alcoholic beverage, Input output table, Output multiplier, Employment multiplier, Industrial linkage ABSTRAK Kebijakan untuk membuka investasi minuman beralkohol mengundang pro dan kontra di masyarakat. Pendukung kebijakan tersebut menyampaikan pentingnya investasi di sektor tersebut dilihat dari kepentingan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran industri minuman beralkohol dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah Tabel Input-Output tahun 2016 yang diagregasi menjadi 18 industri. Analisis yang dilakukan adalah efek pengganda output, tenaga kerja dan pendapatan serta keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa angka pengganda output rendah, angka pengganda tenaga kerja tinggi dan angka pengganda pendapatan tinggi. Selain itu, efek keterkaitan ke depan dan keterkaitan ke belakang kurang dari satu. Dengan hasil-hasil tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa industri minuman mengandung alkohol bukan merupakan sektor unggulan di Indonesia dan perannya relatif terbatas. Pemerintah perlu berhati-hati dalam membuka investasi atas industri tersebut, dengan pertimbangan bahwa daya tarik terhadap industri penyedia input dan daya dorong terhadap industri pengguna output relatif rendah. Selain itu, meskipun angka pengganda tenaga kerja tinggi, selama ini penyerapan tenaga kerja relatif rendah. Kata Kunci: Minuman beralkohol, Tabel input-output, Pengganda output, Pengganda tenaga kerja, Efek keterkaitan

What drives the healthcare sector's economic impact? Evidence from European countries

PurposeWith high public debts and suffering economies after the COVID-19 pandemic, governments will look for ways to promote recovery. Literature substantially reports on the favorable macroeconomic impact of the healthcare sector.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use data on 19 European countries. Over 30 variables are analyzed to find factors that foster or suppress the economic impact of the healthcare sector. The economic impact is thereby expressed through five types of total multipliers, acting as dependent variables. The authors estimate multiple econometric models.FindingsThe results indicate factors that intensify or reduce the economic impact of the healthcare sector as they cause the value of one or more economic multipliers to augment or to diminish. Positive effects are expected from the growth of public funds' share in total healthcare expenditure leading to a higher output, income and value-added multipliers. The import multiplier diminishes when expenditure on healthcare as percent of GDP rises. On the other hand, rising expenditure on pharmaceuticals in the share of healthcare expenditure lowers the output multiplier. Rising GDP per capita and higher healthcare systems' technical efficiency cause the employment multiplier to lower.Originality/valuePolicymakers can strengthen the economic impact of the healthcare sector on the national economy. This could be achieved by stimulating factors, being identified in our study. Strengthening the economic impact of the healthcare sector is especially welcomed when fostering economic recovery is needed.

Could a new Scottish CO2 transport and storage industry deliver employment multiplier and other wider economy benefits to the UK economy?

In 2021, the UK Government commenced a ‘cluster sequencing’ initiative to identify early movers in delivering carbon transport and storage (T&S) services to proximate regional industry clusters with capture potential. A Scottish proposition focussed primarily on linking the Grangemouth industry cluster to North Sea storage, and the potential to transition Oil and Gas industry capacity to deliver CO2 T&S has devolved policy support. This is in terms of potential to transition and create new direct industry and supply chain jobs, set against risks of displacing jobs in different sectors and regions of the UK. We introduce a Scottish CO2 T&S industry to a UK multi-sector economy-wide model, assessing the extent of potential expansion and job creation in the presence of supply-side and funding constraints. We find that large employment ‘multiplier’ gains registered in previous studies only apply over the very long term and in the absence of such constraints. Crucially, any need to recover demands on the public purse via socialisation of costs severely constrains possible gains, while imposing ‘polluter pays’ leads to net economy-wide contractions triggered by competitiveness losses concentrated in Scottish cluster industries, leading to offshoring of production and jobs, potentially skewed within the localities hosting the clusters.

The effects of social housing regeneration schemes on employment: The case of the Glasgow Stock Transfer

Regeneration is an internationally popular policy for improving distressed neighbourhoods dominated by large social housing developments. Stimulating employment is often touted as a secondary benefit, but this claim has rarely been evaluated convincingly. In 2003, Glasgow City Council transferred ownership of its entire social housing stock to the Glasgow Housing Association and over £4 billion was invested in physical repairs, social services and other regeneration activities. Using a linked census database of individuals (Scottish Longitudinal Study), we evaluate the causal effect of the Stock Transfer on employment in Glasgow through a quasi-experimental design that exploits idiosyncrasies and changes in Glasgow’s administrative boundaries. We find that the Stock Transfer had a positive effect on employment for Glasgow residents who were not living in transferred social housing stock. We establish that this effect was mainly accomplished through the local employment multiplier effect of capital spending rather than through any other programmatic elements of the Stock Transfer. Exploratory analysis shows heterogeneous effects: individuals who were over 21, female, living with dependent children and with less education were less likely to benefit from the intervention. We did not find significant subgroup effects by neighbourhood deprivation.

Economic Impact of Sugarcane in Inodonesia: An Input-Output Approach

Sugarcane revitalization is both a challenge and an opportunity in Indonesia. Demand for sugar tends to increase from year to year that fulfilled by domestic production and imports. Thus, it is necessary to increase domestic sugarcane competitiveness to balance national sugarcane production and consumption. This study’s objectives were (1) to determine the forward linkage and backward linkage of sugarcane in Indonesia, and (2) to know the output, income, and employment multiplier. The linkages and multipliers of sugarcane were calculated by the input-output analysis of 66 sectors from 1975 to 2005 by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Estimation values for 2010, 2015, and 2020 are obtained from the linear forecasting method. T-test was used to compare linkages and multipliers between sugarcane and the average of all sectors in the economy. The results showed that the backward linkage, output, and employment multiplier of sugarcane were lower than the average of all sectors in the economy. Besides, the forward linkage of sugarcane was equal, and the income multiplier was higher than the average of all sectors in the economy.

Extended input–output model for urbanization: an empirical test using Chinese data

Although the input–output model has been widely used for both pure economic analysis and environmental issues, demographic analysis has been relegated to the periphery of the input–output literature. Previous researchers have made significant contributions in developing the economic–demographic modeling from the unemployment perspective, in the context of shrinking regional economies. This study aims to develop an extended input–output model for urbanization, based on the Batey–Madden model by incorporating the “urbanization process”. This process is associated with one of the facets of demographic change and has received little attention in the literature. The effectiveness of the model is theoretically explored and empirically tested using Chinese data, which show rapid progress of urbanization in China. The study proposes a new “urbanization multiplier”, which implies intense population concentration in cities based on an employment multiplier in urban areas and labor allocation possibilities between urban and rural areas. The result from a preliminary application shows that the economic structure can determine the urbanization multiplier, indicating that the extent of employment opportunities promotes urbanization and the size of the population attracts more workers from rural areas. The model provides a fresh aspect of urbanization in the existing literature.

The Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of Employment Multipliers in China’s Expanding Cities

In the process of urbanization in developing countries, creating enough jobs to realize the transition from an agricultural population to a non-agricultural population is a major goal of development. The differences and localities of cities need to be considered in the policymaking process. This study estimated the local employment multipliers of expanding cities in China and calculated the employment multiplier of each city. First, there are obvious differences in the size of employment multipliers across cities; therefore, it is necessary to adopt different policies in employment promotion. Second, an inverted-U-shape relationship is detected between employment multiplier and city size, namely the larger the city, the greater the employment multiplier, but when the city size exceeds a certain value, the employment multiplier begins to decline. Third, different degrees of influence are generated by factors for cities at different levels of economic development. Based on the research results, we suggest that expansion of the trade sector be promoted in small- and medium-sized cities, to give full play to its employment multiplier effect; meanwhile, in large cities, the degree of specialization of the trade sector and diversification of the non-trade sector should be improved.

Extended Input–Output Model for Urbanization An Empirical Test Using Chinese Data

Although the input–output model has been widely used for both pure economic analysis and environmental issues, demographic analysis has been relegated to the periphery of the input–output literature. Previous researchers have made significant contributions in developing the economic–demographic modeling from the unemployment perspective, in the context of shrinking regional economies. This study aims to develop an extended input–output model for urbanization, based on the Batey–Madden model by incorporating the “urbanization process.” This process is associated with one of the facets of demographic change and has received little attention in the literature. The effectiveness of the model is theoretically explored and empirically tested using Chinese data, which show rapid progress of urbanization in China. The study proposes a new “urbanization multiplier,” which implies strong population concentration in cities based on an employment multiplier in urban areas and labor allocation possibilities between urban and rural areas. The result from a preliminary application show that the economic structure can determine the urbanization multiplier, indicating that the extent of employment opportunities promotes urbanization and the size of the population attracts more workers from rural areas. The model provides a fresh aspect of urbanization in existing literature.

Employment, income and the environment: an analysis for Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.

The state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) has been one of the states that has registered rates of growth, both GDP and population since 2002. This economic and population growth, in turn, generates constant concerns about the environment, since increasing the income and employment, the pressure on the environment also tends to grow generating, for example, higher emissions of greenhouse gases. In this sense, the objective of this research was to measure the employment and income multipliers for MS state and to associate the results to the sectors of CO2 emissions. The method consisted of using the input-output matrix (MIP) of MS of the year 2010 and, from this matrix, find the income and employment multipliers of the State. The MIP used was of 32 × 32-dimension (sectors) and was aggregated based on the MS energy balance sectors thus creating a new 14 x 14 (sectors) matrix. The results show that there is a reversal in the results, with the income multiplier presenting greater power of externalities (positive or negative) to the environment, while the employment multiplier generates fewer externalities, due to the main activities that cause impacts multiplication.

Extended Input–Output Model for Urbanization An Empirical Test Using Chinese Data

Although the input–output model has been widely used for both pure economic analysis and environmental issues, demographic analysis has been relegated to the periphery in the input–output literature. Since the 1980s, Batey and his various co-researchers have made a significant contribution to the progress of economic–demographic modeling from the perspective of unemployment in the context of shrinking regional economies. This study focuses on another demographic aspect of the urbanization process by developing an extended input–output model for urbanization, using the so-called Batey–Madden model, which focuses on incorporating labor accounts with the input–output model. The study proposes a new “urbanization multiplier,” which implies strong population concentration in cities based on an employment multiplier in urban areas and labor allocation possibilities between urban and rural areas. According to a preliminary application to Chinese urbanization, economic structure can be said to determine the urbanization multiplier, indicating the extent of employment opportunities created in urban areas, and the size of the population attracted from rural areas. Furthermore, the study considers a wide range of possible applications of the input–output table in terms of urbanization.