A numerical study of submarine–landslide–generated tsunami and its propagation in Majene, West Sulawesi

On 14th January 2021, there was a devastating earthquake (Mw 6.2) hit Mamuju and Majene, West Sulawesi, Indonesia at 18.28 UTC. According to National Disaster Management Authority, this event causes 84 casualties and 279 houses were damaged. The Sulawesi Island is situated in a very complex tectonic region, there are several thrusts and faults along the area such as Majene Thrust, Palu-Karo Thrust, Matano Fault, and Tolo Thrust that can lead to tectonic activities. One of the largest earthquakes was a 7.9 Mw in 1997 generated from North Sulawesi Megathrust that caused a catastrophic tsunami. Moreover, there were 9 tsunami events in the Makassar Strait from the year 1800 to 1999. In this research, three different scenarios of the tsunami in Majene were applied to obtain the tsunami elevation. Makassar Strait could be potentially generated tsunami wave from submarine landslides due to its steep bathymetry that will impact the coastline at Sulawesi and Kalimantan, so it is necessary to model the tsunami propagation using submarine landslide as the tsunami generation. The volume of submarine landslide had been used in tsunami submarine landslide modelling as an input. Those are included the height, width and length of the submarine landslide volume. Furthermore, the domain bathymetry was obtained from National Bathymetry (BatNas) with spacing grid of 300 m × 300 m. The submarine landslide coordinate is also needed as a source of tsunami at 2.98°S and 118.94°E. The slide angle and slope angle are also inputted in this modelling with three experimental volumes, namely 1 km3, 0.8 km3, and 0.5 km3. This submarine landslide tsunami modelling used the Non-Hydrostatic WAVE Model (NHWAVE) method to obtain tsunami wave generation. The result from NHWAVE model will be used for initial elevation of tsunami wave propagation using the Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq wave model - Total Variation Diminishing (FUNWAVE - TVD) method. The highest initial tsunami elevation value at each observation point obtained from the NHWAVE model occurred at point 18 (the closest location to the earthquake source), which is around 0.4 –1.2 m. The FUNWAVE simulation result is the tsunami wave propagation for 180 minutes later. In the 180th minute, the tsunami wave was still propagating towards the north of Sulawesi Island to the east of Kalimantan Island.

Upper Plate Structure and Tsunamigenic Faults near the Kodiak Islands

The Kodiak Islands lie near the southern terminus of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake rupture area and within the Kodiak subduction zone segment. Both local and trans-Pacific tsunamis were generated during this devastating megathrust event, but the local tsunami source region and the causative faults are poorly understood. We provide an updated view of the tsunami and earthquake hazard for the Kodiak Islands region through tsunami modelling and geophysical data analysis. Through seismic and bathymetric data, we characterize a regionally extensive sea floor lineament related to the Kodiak shelf fault zone, with focused uplift along a 50-km long portion of the newly named Ugak fault as the most likely source of the local Kodiak Islands tsunami in 1964. We present evidence of Holocene motion along the Albatross Banks fault zone, but suggest that this fault did not produce a tsunami in 1964. We relate major structural boundaries to active forearc splay faults, where tectonic uplift is collocated with gravity lineations. Differences in interseismic locking, seismicity-rates, and potential field signatures argue for different stress conditions at depth near presumed segment boundaries. We find that the Kodiak segment boundaries have a clear geophysical expression and are linked to upper plate structure and splay faulting. The tsunamigenic fault hazard is higher for the Kodiak shelf fault zone when compared to the nearby Albatross Banks fault zone, suggesting short travel paths and little tsunami warning time for nearby communities.

The Horseshoe Abyssal plain Thrust could be the source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami

The southwest Iberia margin is widely believed to have hosted the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake and ensuing tsunami, one of the most destructive natural events in European history. Here we combine geophysical data and numerical tsunami modelling to investigate the source and mechanism responsible for this event. We find that an intra-plate, lithospheric¬-scale thrust fault located at the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain coincides with the location and focal mechanisms of the largest regional earthquakes and is likely to have suitable dimensions and fault-rock properties to account for the magnitude of the 1755 event. We present tsunami simulations with this fault as the source, and find that they reproduce reported tsunami energy propagation patterns, arrival-times and run up heights more successfully than other modelled sources. We propose that a reverse dip-slip mechanism on the northwest verging Horseshoe Abyssal plain Thrust, combined with the two-state mechanical behaviour of serpentinite, is the most likely candidate for the source of the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake and for other recent large regional earthquakes.

On the origin of multiple tsunami inundation of the archaeological site of Ognina (Sicily): Numerical models and field geological data

<p>South-eastern Sicily is among the most seismically active areas of the central Mediterranean. As such, it is marked by a high level of crustal seismicity producing major earthquakes (up to Mw ∼7), and consequent several earthquake-generated tsunami, which have affected the Ionian coast of South-eastern Sicily in historical times. These tsunami events left geomorphic imprints such as large boulders or high-energy deposits along the Sicily coasts. In Ognina, a small town located 20 km south of Siracusa, high-energy deposits were correlated with three tsunami events that struck this coast on 21 July 365 Common Era (CE), 4 February 1169 CE, and 11 January 1693 CE. The deposits are detected in the inner part of a narrow channel, that is thought to have funnelled the tsunami flow energy. In this work, numerical models have been performed to simulate the tsunami impacts, considering the most probable tsunamogenic sources described in literature and integrating them with the past sea-level positions. To this end, we used Delft Dashboard, Delft 3d-FLOW and XBeach. A reconstruction of the past topography of Ognina coast was performed through geological and historical information, in order to model the tsunami wave propagation in the ancient landscape. Geological evidence with model results, under different scenarios, allow us to benchmark fault location and displacement scenarios. Modelling results indicate that the 1693 tsunami event was stronger than others impacting the Ognina area, determining significant inland flooding in the narrow channel. Moreover, simulations show that the most probable tsunamogenic sources of 1693 and 1169 tsunami events could be attributed to Western Fault dislocations occurred off-shore of Ognina area, rather than the other tsunamogenic sources described in literature, located off-shore of Catania and Siracusa. Modelling of 365 AD event shows a long period for the tsunami wave that determined the sedimentation on the lower units in the outcrop. For each of the three tsunami events, models of high-energy deposition match with position and thickness of high-energy layers detected in the field. The results of this study show how a combined approach between geological evidence and tsunami modelling could be a suitable tool for the attribution of tsunami deposits connected to specific tsunamogenic sources.</p><p> </p><p>Keyword: tsunami; earthquake; faults; flooding; sea-level</p>

Tsunami vulnerability along the western Bulgarian Black Sea coast - from the historical review towards multidisciplinary assessment approach

<p>Over the last two decades, in line with the global trend of expanding research into natural hazards and disaster risk reduction, the tsunami hazard and risk assessment along the coast of Europe has become a hot topic of research. In all its aspects, tsunami research includes the study of tsunami documentary evidence, historical data collection, field experiments, laboratory research, theoretical numerical and analytical modelling, and in-depth analysis of recent tsunami events. Tsunami modelling research methodologies and holistic approaches to risk assessment are continually being improved. Researches are directed to develop conventional standardised methods to analyse tsunami hazard and risk with associated uncertainties, aiming to reduce possible adverse effects on potentially vulnerable coastal settlements, coastal and marine infrastructures and natural ecosystems.</p><p>In the Black Sea, dangerous tsunami waves are a relatively rare phenomenon that cannot be forecast. Multidisciplinary studies focused on mapping and dating past events on the Black Sea coast, determining the causes, frequency of recurrence, and current prospects for tsunamis occurrence (risk) are not yet fully clarified or are in their infancy. Moreover, tsunami hazard along the Bulgarian coast is poorly understood and not considered in the National methodology for flood hazards and risk in the coastal zone. Numerical tsunami modelling performed in recent years for the region still needs to be improved. These events are relatively rare, few such cases have been documented, and validation data are scarce or missing.</p><p>This study provides a comprehensive inventory of tsunami sources from scientific publications, model studies of tsunami generated waves carried out during the recent years and an analysis of the results from recently established early warning systems in the Black Sea region. For the Bulgarian coastal zone, the results of studies of active faults with tsunamigenic potential in and around vulnerable coastal zones, available registrations at sea level during seismic events and some extreme meteorological events for the last century are summarized. A near-field and far-field tsunami sources that can generate tsunamis and affect the Bulgarian coastline are briefly reviewed. High-resolution data are needed for more credible tsunami numerical modelling for the western Black Sea region. Preliminary studies of the available datasets regarding Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and bathymetry for specific locations along the coastal zone are presented as well the needed accuracy and completeness of the data. Some consideration regarding the available and newly establish research infrastructure in the western Black Sea are also discussed.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgements:</strong><strong> </strong>The authors would like to thank the Bulgarian National Science Fund for co-funding the research under the Contract КП-СЕ-КОСТ/8, 25.09.2020, which is carried out within the framework of COST Action 18109 “Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis” (AGITHAR; https://www.agithar.uni-hamburg.de/).</p>

Modelling of Potential Tsunami in Makassar Strait, Indonesia: Submarine Landslide-Induced Tsunami Simulations

Tsunami modelling of potential landslide-induced tsunami in Makassar Strait is carried out to quantify possible damage to the nearby cities. Two numerical models are used to represent the wave generation and propagation by using NHWAVE and FUNWAVE models, respectively. The simulations consist of a series of scenarios based on distinct size of the landslide volume. Four landslides with volume 5, 8, 70, and 200 km 3 are used as tsunami sources in the initiation stage. The sources are evenly distributed in the Strait addressing different landslide location. Maximum wave heights of 1.5 m are found in the area between Palu and Bangkir from case 1 and around Talok from case 2 simulations. The empirical run-up calculation of 7.5 m is estimated at the land for the presented wave height. The value significantly elevates the case 3 and 4 proportional to the volume values. The waves impact more than half of coastline with maximum value found in the Sulawesi side. Interestingly, wide and narrow shelf next to Kalimantan Island plays an important role in reducing the tsunami hazard level.

INTER-COUPLED TSUNAMI MODELLING THROUGH AN ABSORBING-GENERATING BOUNDARY

For many practical and theoretical purposes, various types of tsunami wave models have been developed and utilized so far. Some distinction among them can be drawn based on governing equations used by the model. Shallow water equations and Boussinesq equations are probably most typical ones among others since those are computationally efficient and relatively accurate compared to 3D Navier-Stokes models. From this idea, some coupling effort between Boussinesq model and shallow water equation model have been made (e.g., Son et al. (2011)). In the present study, we couple two different types of tsunami models, i.e., nondispersive shallow water model of characteristic form(MOST ver.4) and dispersive Boussinesq model of non-characteristic form(Son and Lynett (2014)) in an attempt to improve modelling accuracy and efficiency.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/cTXybDEnfsQ