scholarly journals Stimulating Non-Energy Exports in Trinidad and Tobago: Evidence from a Small Petroleum-Exporting Economy Experiencing the Dutch Disease

2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Roger Hosein ◽  
Leera Boodram ◽  
George Saridakis
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Energy Trade ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufacturing Trade

The motivation for this study hinges around the fact that Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) is suffering from the Dutch disease which inadvertently hinders the growth of non-energy exports. This paper examines measures that can be adopted for a small petroleum-exporting economy to dampen the effect of Dutch disease by promoting non-energy trade. This paper is novel and contributes to the literature in using panel data for the T&T case, as it investigates the effect of a devaluation of the TT dollar in order to stimulate non-energy exports (a combination of agriculture and manufacturing trade). Note that previous studies would have examined the Marshall–Lerner condition on the aggregate trade balance which is heavily influenced by energy revenues. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is used for ten of T&T’s main trading partners for the period 1991 to 2019 to establish findings. The results show that the Marshall–Lerner condition does not hold for aggregate trade in the long run, as expected. However, when non-energy trade is isolated, it is found that a devaluation of the TT dollar does have a positive impact on non-energy trade and the Marshall–Lerner condition holds. Other measures are also recommended to stimulate non-energy exports in the long run.

scholarly journals Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Titus Isaiah Zayone ◽  
Shida Rastegari Henneberry ◽  
Riza Radmehr
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

This study investigates the effects of Angola’s agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on the country’s economic growth using data from 1980 to 2017. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate the effect of sectoral exports on economic growth. The estimation results show that while exports from all three sectors (manufacturing, mineral, and non-mineral) have driven Angola’s economic growth in the long-run; only non-manufacturing (agricultural and mineral) exports have led its growth in the short-run. Moreover, growth in non-export GDP was driven by mineral exports in the long-run and agricultural exports in the short-run. Considering the statistically significant and positive impact of mineral exports on the Angolan GDP as well as on its non-export GDP, this study points to a lack of evidence supporting the Dutch disease phenomenon in Angola.

scholarly journals Effects of COVID-19 on Indian Energy Consumption

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kentaka Aruga ◽  
Md. Monirul Islam ◽  
Arifa Jannat
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Relaxed Energy ◽  
Positive Effect

Just after the Indian government issued the first lockdown rule to cope with the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in March 2020, the energy consumption in India plummeted dramatically. However, as the lockdown relaxed, energy consumption started to recover. In this study, we investigated how COVID-19 cases affected Indian energy consumption during the COVID-19 crisis by testing if the lockdown release had a positive impact on energy consumption and if richer regions were quicker to recover their energy consumption to the level before the lockdown. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the study reveals that a long-run relationship holds between the COVID-19 cases and energy consumption and that the COVID-19 cases have a positive effect on Indian energy consumption. This result indicates that as lockdown relaxed, energy consumption started to recover. However, such a positive impact was not apparent in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions, which are the poorest regions among the five regions investigated in the study. This implies that poorer regions need special aid and policy to recover their economy from the damage suffered from the COVID-19 crisis.

Asymmetric Effect of Fiscal Deficit on Current Account Deficit: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292110572
Author(s):  
Vishal Sharma ◽  
Masudul Hasan Adil ◽  
Sana Fatima ◽  
Ashok Mittal
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

This study has attempted to re-investigate the impact of fiscal deficit (FD) on current account deficit (CAD) (also known as twin deficit hypothesis) in India from 1970–1971 to 2018–2019 in the presence of private saving–investment gap (SI) and exchange rate (EXR). For the empirical investigation, the study has employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to cointegration. The NARDL results found the evidence of an asymmetric effect of FD, SI and EXR on CAD in the long run only. The obtained results support the traditional views of the Keynesian approach that FD has a positive impact on CAD, validates the existence of the ‘Twin Deficit Hypothesis’ in India. Further, results also depict that SI has a positive effect on CAD, whereas EXR has an adverse impact on CAD. From a policy standpoint, the asymmetric impact of FD on CAD provides strong reasons for conceiving policies that are adaptable to changing dynamics in internal as well as external sectors.

Trade openness, financial liberalization and economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq ◽  
Nor Aznin Abu Bakar ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effects of financial liberalization and trade openness on the economic growth of two countries, namely, Pakistan and India for the period 1985-2014. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag technique, which allows mixed order of integration. In addition, it uses the principal component method to create an index for financial liberalization to examine how it affects the economic growth of the selected countries. Findings The findings reveal that in the short and long run, trade openness has positive effect on the Pakistan’s economic growth while the financial liberalization has positive impact only in the long run. In the case of India, both financial liberalization and trade openness positively and significantly influence the economic growth in the short and long run. Practical implications By comparing the results of both countries, trade openness and financial liberalization increase the economic growth of India more than that of Pakistan. These results suggest that Pakistan should consider appropriate positive policies regarding financial liberalization and trade openness to achieve high and stable economic growth in the future. Originality/value This study creates financial liberalization index by using the principal component analysis method to explain the role of financial liberalization in the economic growth of Pakistan and India. In addition, it makes comparison of the results based on which country benefits most from the liberalization of trade and financial sectors. Only very few studies have examined these countries, yet their results have remained inconclusive as well.

scholarly journals SMEs and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ishola Wasiu Oyeniran ◽  
Oladipo Olalekan David ◽  
Oluseyi Ajayi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This empirical study adopts an autoregressive distributed lag approach in order to examine how small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have contributed to economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2013. We find that investment in SMEs has had a significant and positive impact on economic growth in the country. Given that Nigeria is economically underdeveloped, it is essential that the majority of its (largely rural) population be integrated into the process of economic development through entrepreneurship in small businesses. This means encouraging further investment in SMEs and prioritizing their access to credit facilities, infrastructure development, and capacity building to promote long-run socioeconomic development through this medium.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Exigent Determinants of Trade Balance in Finland: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-360
Author(s):  
Allah Ditta ◽  
Hafiz Asim ◽  
Hafeez Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

A number of research papers analyzed the factors that may have impacts on the balance of trade for the effective macroeconomic policies but the results of these studies have created ambiguity which implies that further research is needed as the worsening trade balance can limit the economic growth of any country. Hence the current paper is an effort to study the short-run and long-run relationships among trade balance, real effective exchange rate, GDP per capita, urbanization, unemployment and inflation rate for the Finnish economy. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing methodology to co-integration along with error correction mechanism is applied by using time series data from 1990 to 2019 for checking the existence of long-run equilibrium between explained variable and its various determinants. Empirical findings of ARDL show that the long-run relationship among the factors of the estimated model holds. The results indicate that real effective exchange rate, urbanization and inflation are having a significant but negative impact on Finland’s trade balance for both the short-run and long-run while the impacts of GDP per capita and unemployment are significant and positive on the Finish balance of trade. In addition to above, the structural stability of mean and variance of the error term for the estimated ARDL model is verified with the help of CUSUM and CUSUM square graphs. Therefore, a reliable policy measure to improve the balance of trade by encouraging the domestic production and curtailing the imports is suggested in Finland.

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Growth in Jordan? Evidence from Ordinary Least Square Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ibrahim Mugableh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The main objective of this paper is to analyze equilibrium and dynamic causality relationships between monetary policy tools and economic growth in Jordan for the period (1990-2017). For this purpose, it considers the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction (VEC) models estimations. The results of ARDL approach show that monetary policy variables (i.e., real interest rate and money supply) have positive impact on economic growth in long-run and short-run except inflation rate. In addition, the results of VECM indicate bidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and monetary policy variables in long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals Empirical Study on Tourism and Economic Growth of Bahrain: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuad M. Kreishan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Time Series Econometrics ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Activity ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

<p>This paper empirically investigates the tourism-led-growth hypothesis (TLGH) in case of Bahrain. Using time series econometrics techniques the study examines the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth in Bahrain by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period of 1990 to 2014. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Bahrain. Moreover, the results indicate that there is unidirectional Granger causality flow from tourism to economic growth in Bahrain. Hence, the development of tourism activity will thus have a positive impact on Bahrain economy. Our findings imply that Bahrain may enhance its economic growth by strategically strengthening the tourism industry in the country. <br /><strong></strong></p>

scholarly journals Effects of Money Demand on Trade Balance in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (351) ◽  
pp. 23-44
Author(s):  
Oluwole Jacob Adeyemi ◽  
Isiaq O. Oseni ◽  
Sheriffdeen A. Tella
Keyword(s):  
Money Demand ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
The Relationship

Previous studies appear to have concentrated on the effects of currency depreciation on trade balance and macroeconomic policy, while the relationship between money demand and trade balance is scantly documented in the literature. This paper therefore examines the effects of money demand on trade balance in Nigeria. For the analysis conducted, annual time series data covering the period ranging from 1986 to 2018 were used along with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique. The long‑run coefficient of money demand was positively signed and statistically significant at 5% level. The positive relationship exhibited by the coefficient of money demand in the long run had a significant influence on trade balance. Thus, this implied that a unit percent increase in money demand would lead to a 1.57% significant increase in trade balance. The implication of this finding was that money demand had significantly influenced trade balance, enhancing the production of goods and fostering investment, which had led to increased growth. The paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria through the Monetary Policy Committee should amend qualitative and quantitative credit control policies with the aim of improving lending to enhance the flow of credit to the real and exporting sector of the economy in order to bring about the desired effect on trade balance. However, the study is limited to an analysis of the existence of the relationship between money demand and trade balance using the Nigerian data set.

scholarly journals Investigating the Nexus between Productivity and Export Performance of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol III (II) ◽  
pp. 94-104
Author(s):  
Asma Saeed ◽  
Zahoor Ul Haq ◽  
Javed Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Ardl Bound Test

An increase in productivity has been associated with better export performance by increasing the efficiency of the factors of production. Further, productivity leads to a reduction in production costs and an increase in comparative advantage in the international market. In this study, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test is used to investigate the nexus between productivity and export performance of agricultural and manufacturing sectors of Pakistan. The study uses secondary data from 1990 to 2016 to estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) and then uses it as a proxy of productivity. Our results show that TFP and gross domestic product (GDP) have a significant and positive impact on the export performance of Pakistan. Foreign direct investment (FDI), real exchange rate and cost to export are found to be negatively related to Pakistans export performance. In the long run, both the sectors (agricultural and manufacturing) need improvement in productivity in order to be competitive in intentional markets.

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