PPP Loans & State-level Employment Growth

In this Economic Commentary, we focus on the first round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans granted beginning in March 2020 until early August 2020, when turbulence in the labor market was pronounced, in order to demonstrate the PPP’s effects on local labor markets. We find that PPP loans helped mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic recession on state-level employment growth. States that received most of their funding early in the loan period had smaller employment declines than did states that received comparable funds later in the period.

Labor Rationing

This paper measures excess labor supply in equilibrium. We induce hiring shocks—which employ 24 percent of the labor force in external month-long jobs—in Indian local labor markets. In peak months, wages increase instantaneously and local aggregate employment declines. In lean months, consistent with severe labor rationing, wages and aggregate employment are unchanged, with positive employment spillovers on remaining workers, indicating that over a quarter of labor supply is rationed. At least 24 percent of lean self-employment among casual workers occurs because they cannot find jobs. Consequently, traditional survey approaches mismeasure labor market slack. Rationing has broad implications for labor market analysis. (JEL E24, J22, J23, J31, J64, O15, R23)

Benign Effects of Automation: New Evidence from Patent Texts

We provide a new measure of automation based on patents and study its employment effects. Classifying all U.S. patents granted between 1976 and 2014 as automation or nonautomation patents, we document a strong rise in the number and share of automation patents. We link patents to their industries of use and to commuting zones. To estimate the effect of automation, we use an instrumental variables strategy that relies on innovations developed independently from U.S. labor market trends. We find that automation technology has a positive effect on employment in local labor markets, driven by job growth in the service sector.

Risk, Recessions and Resilience: Towards Sustainable Local Labor Markets through Employment Portfolio Analysis

This paper explores the role of local labor market dynamics on the survival of new businesses. The characteristics of the local labor market are likely to influence the survival of new businesses, the level of entrepreneurship, and the resilience of the regional economy. We apply portfolio theory to evaluate employment-based and income-based measures of risk-and-return trade-offs in local labor markets on new business survival in the United States. Our results show that volatility in local labor markets has a positive impact on new business survival, especially in Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The results are robust across different timeframes, including during economic downturns, thus highlighting the contribution of new businesses in developing the resilience of the local economy, and further promoting sustainable regional economic development.

Subnational Inequality Divergence

How have inequality levels across local labor markets in the subnational United States changed over the past eight decades? In this study, I examine inequality divergence, or the inequality of inequalities. While divergence trends of central tendencies such as per capita income have been well documented, less is known about the descriptive trends or contributing mechanisms for inequality. In this study, I construct wage inequality measures in 722 local labor markets covering the entire contiguous United States across 22 waves of Census and American Community Survey data from 1940-2019 to assess the historical trends of inequality divergence. I apply variance decomposition and counterfactual techniques to develop main conclusions. Inequality divergence follows a u-shaped pattern, declining through 1990 but with contemporary divergence at as high a level as any time in the past 80 years. Early era convergence occurred broadly and primarily worked to reduce interregional differences, whereas modern inequality divergence operates through a combination of novel mechanisms, most notably through highly unequal urban areas separating from other labor markets. Overall, results show geographical fragmentation of inequality underneath overall inequality growth in recent years, highlighting the fundamental importance of spatial trends for broader stratification outcomes.