Long Term Cost-Effectiveness of Resilient Foods for Global Catastrophes Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety

Global agricultural catastrophes, which include nuclear winter and abrupt climate change, could have long-term consequences on humanity such as the collapse and nonrecovery of civilization. Using Monte Carlo (probabilistic) models, we analyze the long-term cost-effectiveness of resilient foods (alternative foods) - roughly those independent of sunlight such as mushrooms. One version of the model populated partly by a survey of global catastrophic risk researchers finds the confidence that resilient foods is more cost effective than artificial general intelligence safety is ~86% and ~99% for the 100 millionth dollar spent on resilient foods at the margin now, respectively. Another version of the model based on one of the authors produced ~95% and ~99% confidence, respectively. Considering uncertainty represented within our models, our result is robust: reverting the conclusion required simultaneously changing the 3-5 most important parameters to the pessimistic ends. However, as predicting the long-run trajectory of human civilization is extremely difficult, and model and theory uncertainties are very large, this significantly reduces our overall confidence. Because the agricultural catastrophes could happen immediately and because existing expertise relevant to resilient foods could be co-opted by charitable giving, it is likely optimal to spend most of the money for resilient foods in the next few years. Both cause areas generally save expected current lives inexpensively and should attract greater investment.

Australia’s Black Summer pyrocumulonimbus super outbreak reveals potential for increasingly extreme stratospheric smoke events

The Black Summer fire season of 2019–2020 in southeastern Australia contributed to an intense ‘super outbreak’ of fire-induced and smoke-infused thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb). More than half of the 38 observed pyroCbs injected smoke particles directly into the stratosphere, producing two of the three largest smoke plumes observed at such altitudes to date. Over the course of 3 months, these plumes encircled a large swath of the Southern Hemisphere while continuing to rise, in a manner consistent with existing nuclear winter theory. We connect cause and effect of this event by quantifying the fire characteristics, fuel consumption, and meteorology contributing to the pyroCb spatiotemporal evolution. Emphasis is placed on the unusually long duration of sustained pyroCb activity and anomalous persistence during nighttime hours. The ensuing stratospheric smoke plumes are compared with plumes injected by significant volcanic eruptions over the last decade. As the second record-setting stratospheric pyroCb event in the last 4 years, the Australian super outbreak offers new clues on the potential scale and intensity of this increasingly extreme fire-weather phenomenon in a warming climate.

Trading Global Catastrophes: NATO’s Science Diplomacy and Nuclear Winter

This essay explores the reception of ‘nuclear winter’ at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This response is paradigmatic of how scientific predictions can work as stimuli for science diplomacy activities, and either inflate or deflate these forecasts’ public resonance. Those who elaborated the theory in the early 1980s predicted that the environmental consequences of a future nuclear conflict would have been catastrophic; possibly rendering the earth uninhabitable and leading to the extinction of humankind. This prospect was particularly problematic for the Western defence alliance, since it was difficult to reconcile with the tenets of its nuclear posture, especially after the 1979 Dual Track decision, engendering concerns about the environmental catastrophe that the scientists predicted. Thus, NATO officials refrained from commenting on nuclear winter and its implications for the alliance’s deterrence doctrine for some time in an effort to minimize public criticism. Meanwhile, they progressively removed research on nuclear winter from the set of studies and scientific debates sponsored by NATO in the context of its science initiatives. In essence, NATO officials ‘traded’ the promotion of these problematic studies with that of others more amenable to the alliance’s diplomacy ambitions.

AI Nuclear Winter or AI That Saves Humanity? AI and Nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear deterrence is an integral aspect of the current security architecture and the question has arisen whether adoption of AI will enhance the stability of this architecture or weaken it. The stakes are very high. Stable deterrence depends on a complex web of risk perceptions. All sorts of distortions and errors are possible, especially in moments of crisis. AI might contribute toward reinforcing the rationality of decision-making under these conditions (easily affected by the emotional disturbances and fallacious inferences to which human beings are prone), thereby preventing an accidental launch or unintended escalation. Conversely, judgments about what does or does not suit the “national interest” are not well suited to AI (at least in its current state of development). A purely logical reasoning process based on the wrong values could have disastrous consequences, which would clearly be the case if an AI-based machine were allowed to make the launch decision (this virtually all experts would emphatically exclude), but grave problems could similarly arise if a human actor relied too heavily on AI input.

Where is the Toba eruption in the Vostok ice core? Clues from tephra, O and S isotopes

<p>The ca. 74 ka BP ‘‘super-eruption’’ of Toba volcano in Sumatra is the largest known Quaternary eruption. It expelled an estimated of 2800 km<sup>3</sup> of dense rock equivalent, creating a caldera of 100 x 30 km. The eruption is estimated to have been 3500 greater than the Tambora eruption that created the “year without summer” in 1816 in Europe (Oppenheimer, 2002). However, the consequences of this “mega-eruption” on the climate and human evolution that could be expected for such eruption are still debated and uncertain. There is no evidence that this eruption has triggered any catastrophic climate change such as a “nuclear winter”. One of such lack of evidence lies in the ice.</p><p>In the ice core community, this eruption still remains a mystery. Indeed, the estimated size of the eruption should have left a gigantic mark in the ice, at least in the form of a huge sulfuric acid layer but none of the ice records covering this period show any such singularity. The sulfate record seems so common that it is in fact difficult to allocate a specific sulfate peak to this event.</p><p>In an effort to synchronize the Vostok ice core and the EPICA Dome C core, (Svensson et al., 2013) have identified three possible sulfuric acid layers for the Toba eruption in the Vostok ice core. In order to see if one of such event could have been the Toba eruption, we have performed the sulfur  & oxygen isotope analysis of these three sulfuric acid layers in the hope that it could reveal some particularity. The sulfur results show that 1- all these three events have injected their products in the stratosphere and 2- the sulfur isotopic compositions of these three events share a common array, array that is in lines with other stratospheric eruptions, however one of the three acid layers shows an extremely and unusual weak oxygen anomaly, potentially indicating a major eruption. In order to remove the last doubts about the existence or not of one or a series of eruptions related to TOBA, the geochemical analysis of volcanic glasses trapped in the ice will be performed and presented. </p>