Validation of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Evidence from the national vector control program in Mexico

Background During 2017, twenty health districts (locations) implemented a dengue outbreak Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) in Mexico, which processes epidemiological, meteorological and entomological alarm indicators to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities. Out of the 20 priority districts where more than one fifth of all national disease transmission in Mexico occur, eleven districts were purposely selected and analyzed. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms by EWARS but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented alarms with subsequent dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This evaluation study assesses and compares the impact of alarm-informed response activities and the consequences of failing a timely and adequate response across the outbreak groups. Methods Five indicators of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying and indoor residual spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”). However, for quality control purposes, only qualitative concluding remarks were derived from the fifth response indicator (fogging). Results The average coverage of vector control responses was significantly higher in non-outbreak districts and across all four indicators. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. Vector control teams at districts-level demonstrated diverse levels of compliance with local guidelines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms, which could potentially explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms. Conclusion Failing timely and adequate response of alarm signals generated by EWARS showed to negatively impact the disease outbreak control process. On the other hand, districts with adequate and timely response guided by alarm signals demonstrated successful records of outbreak prevention. This study presents important operational scenarios when failing or successding EWARS but warrants investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using a more robust designs.

Vector Autoregressive-Based Maximum MCUSUM Control Chart for Monitoring the Quality of White Crystal Sugar

The white crystal sugar which is widely consumed sugar has two critical to qualities, namely the index of solution colour and the level of sulphur dioxide. These quality characteristics have small mean and variability shifts, as well as autocorrelation pattern. This research aims to propose residual-based Maximum Multivariate Cumulative Sum (Max-MCUSUM) control chart, one of the single control charts to monitor small shifts of mean and variability simultaneously, for monitoring the quality of white crystal sugar. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is utilized to model the daily solution colour index and the daily sulphur dioxide level, then the residuals are monitored using Max-MCUSUM chart. The VAR-based Max-MCUSUM chart employs bootstrap, one of the nonparametric resampling methods, to estimate the control limit. The results of white crystal sugar quality control show that the processes in the last week of August 2020 need to be improved. Monitoring the white crystal sugar data using conventional control chart leads to many false alarm signals. Furthermore, the proposed control chart is more sensitive than the residual-based MEWMA and residual-based Hotelling’s T 2 charts in case of monitoring the quality of white crystal sugar.

The system of offences related to illicit circulation of digital securities in Russia

  This article is dedicated to the analysis of the system of offences related to the illicit circulation of digital securities in the Russian Federation. Special attention is given to the peculiarities of the mechanism of constructing the system of offences in the sphere of digital economy. The article analyzes the basic FATF acts pertinent to digital assets; examines the alarm signals in using such assets to launder proceeds acquired by illegal means or used to finance terrorism. The author reviews recommendations on application of risk-based approach in the process of creating due legal regulation of digital assets in the FATF member-states (including Russia). As a research task, the article aims to determine which acts associated with the illicit circulation of digital securities are the subjected to criminalization, as well as the composition of these offences considering the technological aspect of the mixed (economic and technological) nature of such assets. The corresponding draft federal laws “On the Amendments to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation” and “On the Amendments to the Code of the Russian Federation on Administrative Offenses”, developed by the Ministry of Finances of the Russian Federation, comprise the legislative normative framework for this research. The conclusion is made on the reception (accounting) of recommendations for further development of such regulation in the Russian Federation.  

Pothole Dection Syatem in Vehicle

In India major road accident is based on potholes. To identify this potholes and humps in roads may reduces the road accident and also reduces the damages in cars and bike. To identify the holes and humps or speed breakers, the ultra sonic sensor, display board and buzzer also used in it. Project is mainly used in the prototype model of the vehicle which has the capable to find holes and humps in the road. When the vehicle identify the holes and hump it started showing the distance of obstacles, once the distance of obstacles reduced to 10m range the buzzer gives the alarm signals to drives that obstacles is near to vehicle so that they can reduces the speed of the vehicle and go slow through the obstacles or they can change the path. The display board given near the dash board that drivers can easily view the board and buzzer is given inside the vehicles and ultrasonic sensors given in the front of the bumper so it act efficiently. Here the arduino board is used for the power supply and programs, so this project reduces the accident occurs in the road due to holes and humps.

Bank vole alarm pheromone chemistry and effects in the field

Chemical communication plays an important role in mammalian life history decisions. Animals send and receive information based on body odour secretions. Odour cues provide important social information on identity, kinship, sex, group membership or genetic quality. Recent findings show, that rodents alarm their conspecifics with danger-dependent body odours after encountering a predator. In this study, we aim to identify the chemistry of alarm pheromones (AP) in the bank vole, a common boreal rodent. Furthermore, the vole foraging efficiency under perceived fear was measured in a set of field experiments in large outdoor enclosures. During the analysis of bank vole odour by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry, we identified that 1-octanol, 2-octanone, and one unknown compound as the most likely candidates to function as alarm signals. These compounds were independent of the vole’s sex. In a field experiment, voles were foraging less, i.e. they were more afraid in the AP odour foraging trays during the first day, as the odour was fresh, than in the second day. This verified the short lasting effect of volatile APs. Our results clarified the chemistry of alarming body odour compounds in mammals, and enhanced our understanding of the ecological role of AP and chemical communication in mammals.