scholarly journals Validation of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Evidence from the national vector control program in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0009261
Author(s):  
David Benitez-Valladares ◽  
Axel Kroeger ◽  
Gustavo Sánchez Tejeda ◽  
Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb

Background During 2017, twenty health districts (locations) implemented a dengue outbreak Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) in Mexico, which processes epidemiological, meteorological and entomological alarm indicators to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities. Out of the 20 priority districts where more than one fifth of all national disease transmission in Mexico occur, eleven districts were purposely selected and analyzed. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms by EWARS but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented alarms with subsequent dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This evaluation study assesses and compares the impact of alarm-informed response activities and the consequences of failing a timely and adequate response across the outbreak groups. Methods Five indicators of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying and indoor residual spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”). However, for quality control purposes, only qualitative concluding remarks were derived from the fifth response indicator (fogging). Results The average coverage of vector control responses was significantly higher in non-outbreak districts and across all four indicators. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. Vector control teams at districts-level demonstrated diverse levels of compliance with local guidelines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms, which could potentially explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms. Conclusion Failing timely and adequate response of alarm signals generated by EWARS showed to negatively impact the disease outbreak control process. On the other hand, districts with adequate and timely response guided by alarm signals demonstrated successful records of outbreak prevention. This study presents important operational scenarios when failing or successding EWARS but warrants investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using a more robust designs.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Benitez-Valladares ◽  
Axel Kroeger ◽  
Gustavo Sánchez Tejeda ◽  
Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb

AbstractBackgroundDuring 2017, twenty health districts (locations) in Mexico implemented a dengue outbreak early warning and response system (EWARS) that uses epidemiological, meteorological and entomological variables (alarm indicators) to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities.Eleven of these districts were analyzed as they presented reliable information. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented after the alarms dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This study is concerned with i) if the alarms without outbreaks were false alarms or if the control services had established effective response activities averting an outbreak and ii) if vector control activities can mitigate or even avert dengue outbreaks.MethodsFive components of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying, indoor residual spraying, space spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”).ResultsThe average coverage of vector control and responses were higher in non-outbreak districts and across all five components. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. District vector control teams demonstrated diverse compliance with local guidlines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms which could explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms.Conclusionfindings from this study plausibly demonstrates important operational scenarios when succeeding or failing alarms signals generated by EWARS at national level. This study presents evidence warranting for further investigation into the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using gold-standard designs.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rocio Cardenas ◽  
Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb ◽  
David Benitez-Valladares ◽  
Gustavo Sanchez-Tejeda ◽  
Axel Kroeger

Abstract Background. In the Americas, endemic countries for Aedes-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika face great challenges particularly since the recent outbreaks of CHIKV and ZIKV, all transmitted by the same insect vector Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR- WHO) has developed together with partners an early warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks based on a variety of alarm signals with a high sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). The question is if this tool can also be used for the prediction of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks.Methodology. We conducted in nine districts of Mexico and one large city in Colombia a retrospective analysis of epidemiological data (for the outbreak definition) and of climate and entomological data (as potential alarm indicators) produced by the national surveillance systems for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreak prediction covering the following outbreak years: for dengue 2012-2016, for Zika 2015-2017, for chikungunya 2014-2016. This period was divided into a “run in period” (to establish the “historical” pattern of the disease) and an “analysis period” (to identify sensitivity and PPV of outbreak prediction). Results. In Mexico, the sensitivity of alarm signals for correctly predicting an outbreak was 92% for dengue, and 97% for Zika (chikungunya data could not be obtained in Mexico); the PPV was 68% for dengue and 100% for Zika. The time period between alarm and start of the outbreak (i.e. the time available for early response activities) was for dengue 6-8 weeks and for Zika 3-5 weeks. In Colombia the sensitivity of the outbreak prediction was 92% for dengue, 93% for chikungunya and 100% for Zika; the PPV was 68% for dengue, 92% for chikungunya and 54% for Zika; the prediction distance was for dengue 3-5 weeks, for chikungunya 10-13 weeks and for Zika 6-10 weeks. Conclusion. The implementation of an early warning and response system (EWARS) could predict outbreaks of three Aedes borne diseases with a high sensitivity and positive predictive value and with a lag time long enough for preparing an adequate outbreak response in order to reduce the magnitude or avert the occurrence of outbreaks with their elevated social and economic tolls.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rocio Cardenas ◽  
Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb ◽  
David Benitez-Valladares ◽  
Gustavo Sanchez Tejeda ◽  
Axel Kroeger

Abstract Background. In the Americas, endemic cities for Aedes-borne diseases such as chikungunya, Zika and dengue face great challenges particularly since the recent outbreaks of CHIKV and ZIKV, all transmitted by the same insect vector Aedes aegypti and albopictus. Areas, such as Colombia and Mexico with the highest incidence and most frequent outbreaks of the three diseases are located in tropical environments due to their favorable eco-epidemiological conditions for vector breeding. In Colombia, the city of Cúcuta on the border with Venezuela is one of such highly endemic areas. Likewise, in Mexico a number of municipalities has very similar environmental conditions. This is why these urban areas provide the opportunity to test the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS), developed originally for dengue outbreaks, also for the other two diseases (Chikungunya and Zika). Methodology. Through the retrospective analysis of epidemiological, climate and entomological data produced by the national surveillance systems in Colombia and Mexico, we intended to predict outbreaks with a high sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) through alarm signals by using the EWARS tool. The registered outbreaks of DENV 2012-2016, CHIKV 2014-2016 and ZIKV 2015-2016 were analyzed for 2 years retrospectively (“run in period”) and one year of analysis (“evaluation period”). Outbreak prediction for dengue and Zika was for both countries but for Chikungunya in Colombia only due to the availability of surveillance data. Results. In Mexico, the sensitivity of different alarm signals for correctly predicting an outbreak ranged between 74-92% for dengue, 77–93% for chikungunya and 78-97% for Zika. Their Positive Predictive Values ranged between 51-68% for dengue, 48-92% for chikungunya and 11-100% for Zika. The lag time between predictions and start of the outbreak (i.e. the time available for early response activities) was for dengue 3-5 weeks, for chikungunya 10-13 weeks and for Zika 3-5 weeks. Conclusion. The implementation of an early warning and response system (EWARS) could substantially reduce the magnitude and occurrence of outbreaks and the elevated social and economic toll.


2020 ◽  
Vol 376 (1818) ◽  
pp. 20190817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Hellewell ◽  
Ellie Sherrard-Smith ◽  
Sheila Ogoma ◽  
Thomas S. Churcher

Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa relies on the widespread use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) or the indoor residual spraying of insecticide. Disease transmission may be maintained even when these indoor interventions are universally used as some mosquitoes will bite in the early morning and evening when people are outside. As countries seek to eliminate malaria, they can target outdoor biting using new vector control tools such as spatial repellent emanators, which emit airborne insecticide to form a protective area around the user. Field data are used to incorporate a low-technology emanator into a mathematical model of malaria transmission to predict its public health impact across a range of scenarios. Targeting outdoor biting by repeatedly distributing emanators alongside LLINs increases the chance of elimination, but the additional benefit depends on the level of anthropophagy in the local mosquito population, emanator effectiveness and the pre-intervention proportion of mosquitoes biting outdoors. High proportions of pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes diminish LLIN impact because of reduced mosquito mortality. When mosquitoes are highly anthropophagic, this reduced mortality leads to more outdoor biting and a reduced additional benefit of emanators, even if emanators are assumed to retain their effectiveness in the presence of pyrethroid resistance. Different target product profiles are examined, which show the extra epidemiological benefits of spatial repellents that induce mosquito mortality. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases’.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0248604
Author(s):  
Helena Marti-Soler ◽  
Mara Máquina ◽  
Mercy Opiyo ◽  
Celso Alafo ◽  
Ellie Sherrard-Smith ◽  
...  

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main malaria vector control strategies in Mozambique alongside the distribution of insecticide treated nets. As part of the national insecticide resistance management strategy, Mozambique introduced SumiShield™ 50WG, a third generation IRS product, in 2018. Its residual efficacy was assessed in southern Mozambique during the 2018–2019 malaria season. Using a susceptible Anopheles arabiensis strain, residual efficacy was assessed on two different wall surfaces, cement and mud-plastered walls, using standard WHO (World Health Organization) cone bioassay tests at three different heights. Female mosquitoes of two age groups (2–5 and 13–26 day old) were exposed for 30 minutes, after which mortality was observed 24h, 48h, 72h, and 96h and 120h post-exposure to assess (delayed) mortality. Lethal times (LT) 90, LT50 and LT10 were estimated using Bayesian models. Mortality 24h post exposure was consistently below 80%, the current WHO threshold value for effective IRS, in both young and old mosquitoes, regardless of wall surface type. Considering delayed mortality, residual efficacies (mosquito mortality equal or greater than 80%) ranged from 1.5 to ≥12.5 months, with the duration depending on mortality time post exposure, wall type and mosquito age. Looking at mortality 72h after exposure, residual efficacy was between 6.5 and 9.5 months, depending on wall type and mosquito age. The LT50 and LT10 (i.e. 90% of the mosquitoes survive exposure to the insecticides) values were consistently higher for older mosquitoes (except for LT10 values for 48h and 72h post-exposure mortality) and ranged from 0.9 to 5.8 months and 0.2 to 7.8 months for LT50 and LT10, respectively. The present study highlights the need for assessing mosquito mortality beyond the currently recommended 24h post exposure. Failure to do so may lead to underestimation of the residual efficacy of IRS products, as delayed mortality will lead to a further reduction in mosquito vector populations and potentially negatively impact disease transmission. Monitoring residual efficacy on relevant wall surfaces, including old mosquitoes that are ultimately responsible for malaria transmission, and assessing delayed mortalities are critical to provide accurate and actionable data to guide vector control programmes.


2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ashok K. Mishra ◽  
Praveen K Bharti ◽  
Gyan Chand ◽  
Aparup Das ◽  
Himanshu Jayswar ◽  
...  

Background. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are malaria vector control measures used in India, but the development of insecticide resistance poses major impediments for effective vector control strategies. As per the guidelines of the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP), the study was conducted in 12 districts of Madhya Pradesh to generate data on insecticide resistance in malaria vectors. Methods. The susceptibility tests were conducted on adult An. culicifacies as per the WHO standard technique with wild-caught mosquitoes. The blood-fed female mosquitoes were exposed in 3 to 4 replicates on each occasion to the impregnated papers with specified discriminating dosages of the insecticides (DDT: 4%, malathion: 5%, deltamethrin: 0.05%, and alphacypermethrin: 0.05%), for one hour, and mortality was recorded after 24-hour holding. Results. An. culicifacies was found resistant to DDT 4% in all the 12 districts and malathion in 11 districts. The resistance to alphacypermethrin was also observed in two districts, and possible resistance was found to alphacypermethrin in seven districts and to deltamethrin in eight districts, while the vector was found susceptible to both deltamethrin and alphacypermethrin in only 3 districts. Conclusion. An. culicifacies is resistant to DDT and malathion and has emerging resistance to pyrethroids, alphacypermethrin, and deltamethrin. Therefore, regular monitoring of insecticide susceptibility in malaria vectors is needed for implementing effective vector management strategies. However, studies to verify the impact of IRS with good coverage on the transmission of disease are required before deciding on the change of insecticide in conjunction with epidemiological data.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Collince Jared Omondi ◽  
Otambo O Wilfred ◽  
David Odongo ◽  
Kevin O. Ochwedo ◽  
Antony Otieno ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Long lasting insecticidal bednets (LLINs) have been the primary vector control strategy until indoor residual spraying (IRS) was added in Homa Bay and Migori Counties in western Kenya. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of LLINs integrated with organophosphate-based (Actellic 300 CS) IRS on the prevalence of asymptomatic and submicroscopic Plasmodium species infections in Homa Bay County. Methods Four consecutive community cross-sectional surveys for Plasmodium species infection were conducted in residents of Homa Bay County, Kenya commencing immediately before and 2 years after introduction of annual IRS. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to prepare thick and thin smears for microscopic determination and qPCR diagnosis of Plasmodium genus, P. falciparum, P. malariae and P. ovale infection. Results Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence by microscopy was 18.5% before IRS and 14.2%, 3.3% and 1.3% after two annual rounds of IRS (χ²= 186.9, df = 3, p < 0.0001). Submicroscopic (blood smear negative, qPCR positive) parasitemia was 50.4% before IRS and 43.2%, 68.0% and 80.7% after IRS (χ²= 31.98, df = 3, p < 0.0001). Geometric mean density of P. falciparum parasitemia decreased over the 2-year study period (ANOVA, F = 28.95, df = 3, 243, p < 0.0001). The proportion of blood smear positive asymptomatic infections that included P. falciparum did not significantly change over the study period. In contrast, the proportion of asymptomatic submicroscopic P. falciparum infections trended upward following introduction of IRS (pre-IRS 48.2% versus post-IRS 41.6%, 61.3% and 75.4%; (χ²= 24.00, df = 3, p = 0.0002). Conclusions These data suggest that two annual rounds of IRS integrated with LLIN significantly reduced the prevalence of Plasmodium parasitemia, whereas the proportion of submicroscopic infections that included P. falciparum parasite increases. Strategies that aim at reducing the number of asymptomatic submicroscopic infections should be considered to diminish cryptic P. falciparum transmission and enhance malaria control.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Yuan-Jung Tsai ◽  
Fang-Tsz Syu ◽  
Chjeng-Lun Shieh ◽  
Chi-Rong Chung ◽  
Shih-Shu Lin ◽  
...  

In order to lower the risks of large-scale landslides and improve community resilience in Taiwan, a long-term project has been promoted by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau since 2017. In this study, methods to build an emergency response framework including hazard mapping and early warning system establishment were introduced. For hazard mapping, large-scale landslides were categorized into a landslide, debris flow, or landslide dam type based on the movement of unstable materials and topography. Each disaster type has different hazard zone delineation methods to identify the affected areas. After establishing the possible effected areas, early warning mechanisms, including warning value using rainfall as the indicator and evacuation procedures, should be created for emergency response. To set the warning value, analysis of the occurrence thresholds of previous existing large-scale landslides was conducted to determine the critical rainfall and further utilized to set the warning value considering the evacuation time for the locals. Finally, for integration with the current debris flow emergency response system, potential large-scale landslide areas were further divided into two types based on their spatial relationship with debris flows. For those overlapping with existing debris flow protected targets, the current emergency response system was upgraded considering the impact of large-scale landslides, while the others were suggested for use in building a new emergency response procedure. This integrated framework could provide a feasible risk avoidance method for local government and residents.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Marti-Soler ◽  
Mara Maquina ◽  
Mercy Opiyo ◽  
Celso Alafo ◽  
Ellie Sherrard-Smith ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundIndoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main malaria vector control strategies in Mozambique alongside the distribution of insecticide treated nets. As part of the national insecticide resistance management strategy, Mozambique introduced SumiShield™ 50WG, a third generation IRS product, in 2018. Its residual efficacy was assessed in southern Mozambique during the 2018-2019 malaria season.MethodsTwo different wall surfaces, cement and mud-plastered surfaces, daily mosquito mortality up to 120 hours post-exposure, and older mosquitoes (13-26d old) were included in standard WHO (World Health Organization) cone bioassay tests. Lethal times (LT) 90, LT50 and LT10 were estimated using Bayesian models.ResultsMortality 24h post exposure was consistently below 80%, the current WHO threshold value for effective IRS, in both young and old mosquitoes, regardless of wall surface type. Considering delayed mortality, residual efficacies (mosquito mortality equal or greater than 80%) ranged from 1 to ≥12 months, with the duration depending on mortality time post exposure, wall type and mosquito age. Looking at mortality 72h after exposure, residual efficacy was between 6 and 9 months, depending on wall type and mosquito age. Mortality of older mosquitoes was significantly higher on mud-surfaces compared to cemented-surfaces 24h post exposure, but this difference was not significant for the delayed mortalities. The LT50 and LT10 (i.e. 90% of the mosquitoes survive exposure to the insecticides) values were consistently higher for older mosquitoes using the 24h post-exposure observations and ranged from 0.2 to 5.7 months and 0.2 to 7.2 months for LT50 and LT10, respectively.ConclusionsThe present study highlights the need for assessing mosquito mortality beyond the currently recommended 24h post exposure. Failure to do so may lead to underestimation of the residual efficacy of IRS products, as delayed mortality will lead to a further reduction in mosquito vector populations and potentially negatively impact disease transmission. Monitoring residual efficacy on relevant wall surfaces, including old mosquitoes that are ultimately responsible for malaria transmission, and assessing delayed mortalities are critical to provide accurate and actionable data to guide vector control programmes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Onyango Sangoro ◽  
Ulrike Fillinger ◽  
Kochelani Saili ◽  
Theresia Estomih Nkya ◽  
Rose Marubu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Concerted effort to control malaria has had a substantial impact on transmission of the disease in the past two decades. In areas where reduced malaria transmission is being sustained through insecticide-based vector control interventions, primarily long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), non-insecticidal complementary tools will likely be needed to push towards malaria elimination. Once interruption in local disease transmission is achieved, insecticide-based measures can be scaled down gradually and eventually phased out, saving on costs of sustaining control programmes and mitigating any unintended negative health and environmental impacts posed by insecticides. These non-insecticidal methods could eventually replace insecticidal methods of vector control. House screening, a non-insecticidal method, has a long history in malaria control, but is still not widely adopted in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to add to the evidence-base for this intervention in low transmission settings by assessing the efficacy, impact and feasibility of house screening in areas where LLINs are conventionally used for malaria control. Methods: A two-armed, household randomized clinical trial will be conducted in Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to evaluate whether combined use of house screens and LLINs affords better protection against clinical malaria in children between 6 months and 13 years compared to the sole use of LLINs. Eight hundred households will be enrolled in each study area, where 400 households will be randomly assigned the intervention, house screening and LLINs while the control households will be provided with LLINs only. Clinical malaria incidence will be estimated by actively following up one child from each household for 6 months over the malaria transmission season. Cross-sectional parasite prevalence will be estimated by testing all participating children for malaria parasites at the beginning and end of each transmission season using rapid diagnostic tests.CDC light traps and pyrethrum spray catches (PSC) will be used to sample adult mosquitoes and evaluate the impact of house screening on indoor mosquito density, species distribution and sporozoite rates.Discussion: This study will contribute epidemiological data on the impact of house screening on malaria transmission and assess the feasibility of its implementation on a programmatic scale. Trial registration: This trial was retrospectively registered on 11th August 2020. Registration number PACTR202008524310568.


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