The Poverty Balancing Equation: Expressing Poverty of Place as a Population Process

The accurate measurement of poverty is essential for the development of effective poverty policy. Unfortunately, approaches that use poverty rates to assess the causes and consequences of poverty do not fully capture the components of change in the poverty population because changes in the conventional poverty rate can occur owing to processes of natural increase, migration, or transitions in and out of poverty. This article presents an accounting framework for changes in poverty within and between places. The framework, termed the poverty balancing equation, generates a series of summary statistics that can be used in place of the conventional poverty rate in future research. The approach is demonstrated using the 2014 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to generate state-level estimates of the poverty components of change for three states in the American South between January and December of 2013. Results show that even when poverty rates remain constant, there is significant dynamism within poor and nonpoor populations. By applying this approach, either completely or in part, researchers can provide more specific and actionable evidence for poverty alleviation policy.

Ageing Urban Population Prognostic between 2020 and 2050 in Transylvania Region (Romania)

Population ageing represents a dramatic scenario and a progressive process inducing major changes in the dynamics of the population and especially in the age structure. The ageing population process is a phenomenon relevant to define not only demographic but also social, cultural, and territorial transformations in relation to the urban settlements. In this article, we present a case study regarding the ageing process persistent in urban areas from the counties of the Transylvania region. The present study emphasizing the evolution of the older adults age group between 2015 and 2019, drawing a forecast model for the prognosis period 2020–2050. The tendencies of the population decline process are revealed by the outcomes of the ageing index, outlining some long-term effects of population ageing over the years. The study of this phenomenon reveals an important framework at the regional level of Transylvania and points out the means to determine its existence in other regions or countries, since it affects the urban population evolution and its dynamics.

Formation of Hybrid Computational Structure for the Analysis of Critical Control Scenarios in Biocybernetics

We have considered methods of computational modeling of rapid processes in ecosystems and events of changes with extreme amplitude of abundance. For biocybernetics, the phenomena of degradation of the commercial population in the form of a sudden collapse for specialists and an explosive increase in the number of a new species after invasion — outbreaks are of the type predicted with difficulties. We have developed and ecologically substantiated a method for modeling a group of rapid phenomena, including the calculation of threshold states and transient modes. Algorithmically implemented computational structure, which describes spontaneous modes of rapid transformations in ecodynamics based on the internal properties of biosystems. New model is based on the formalization of threshold effects in regulation of reproduction, included as additional functionals in the basic hybrid structure for research in scenario experiments. Computational scenario is obtained for a generalized description of the extreme population process. We have considered the situation of the collapse of the commercial population with a quota-regulated harvest on the example of the king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus near the coast of Alaska. In the simulation scenario of the crab collapse, we took into account the logic of expert management of the level of exploitation of biological resources. The resulting control scenarios using the iterative model use bifurcations and the loss of the invariance property by the attractor. Modeling with the expert logic of fishery management revealed the characteristic signs of the dynamics of crab collapse and predicted important stages in the process of degradation of exploited biological resources.

A Diffusion-Based Analysis of a Multiclass Road Traffic Network

This paper studies a stochastic model that describes the evolution of vehicle densities in a road network. It is consistent with the class of (deterministic) kinematic wave models, which describe traffic flows based on conservation laws that incorporate the macroscopic fundamental diagram (a functional relationship between vehicle density and flow). Our setup is capable of handling multiple types of vehicle densities, with general macroscopic fundamental diagrams, on a network with arbitrary topology. Interpreting our system as a spatial population process, we derive, under natural scaling, fluid, and diffusion limits. More specifically, the vehicle density process can be approximated with a suitable Gaussian process, which yield accurate normal approximations to the joint (in the spatial and temporal sense) vehicle density process. The corresponding means and variances can be computed efficiently. Along the same lines, we develop an approximation to the vehicles’ travel time distribution between any given origin and destination pair. Finally, we present a series of numerical experiments that demonstrate the accuracy of the approximations and illustrate the usefulness of the results.

O SÍTIO ARQUEOLÓGICO PEDRA DO ALEXANDRE, SERIDÓ, RIO GRANDE DO NORTE: Principais resultados de estudos, os sepultamentos e perspectivas para o futuro

Este artigo teve por base rever os principais resultados de investigações arqueológicas realizadas entre os anos 1990 e 2020 no sítio Pedra do Alexandre, Seridó, Rio Grande do Norte, com pinturas rupestres e sepultamentos humanos. Durante este processo, foram identificados três problemas de pesquisa: caracterização da tradição dos registros rupestres; a geomorfologia e paleoambiente e a formação do depósito arqueológico; as práticas funerárias e as características bioarqueológicas, com ênfase neste artigo. As prerrogativas para o futuro demandam o uso de tecnologia para análises bioquímicas, radiocarbônicas e isotópicas para a interpretação do processo de povoamento regional, como também novos dados sobre dieta, paleopatologia e reconstituição do paleoambiente. THE PEDRA DO ALEXANDRE ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITE, SERIDÓ, RIO GRANDE DO NORTE: Main Results of Studies, Burials and Perspectives for the Future ABSTRACTThis article is intended to review the main results of archaeological investigations carried out between the 1990s and 2020 at the Pedra do Alexandre site, Seridó, Rio Grande do Norte, with cave paintings and human burials. During this process, three research problems were identified: characterization of the tradition of rock records; geomorphology and paleoenvironment and the formation of the archaeological deposit; funerary practices and bioarchaeological characteristics, with emphasis on this article. The prerogatives for the future demand the use of technology for biochemical, radiocarbon and isotopic analyzes for the interpretation of the regional population process, as well as new data on diet, paleopathology and paleoenvironmental reconstitution.Keywords: Pedra do Alexandre; archaeological research; human burial

AUTOMATIC DETECTION OF URBAN SPRAWLS BY EXTRACTION OF BUILTUP AREA OVER HYDERABAD CITY

Today, urban growth is a multidimensional spatial and population process in which cities and urban settlements are considered as centers of population focus owing to their specific economic and social features, which form a vital component in the development of human societies. The analysis of urban growth using spatial and attribute data of the past and present is regarded as one of the basic requirements of urban geographical studies, future planning as well as the establishment of political policies for urban development. Mapping, modeling, and measurements of urban growth can be analyzed using GIS and remote sensing-based statistical models. In the present study, the aerial photos and satellite images of 5 periods, were used to determine the process of expansion of the urban boundary of Bandar Abbas. Here, in order to identify the process of expanding urban boundaries with time, the circular administrative border of the city of Bandar Abbas, was divided into 32 different geographical directions. Here, Pearson’s Chi-square distribution as well as Shannon’s entropy is used in calculating the degree of freedom and the degree of sprawl for the analysis of growth and development of the cities. In addition to these models, the degree-of-goodness was also used for combining these models in the measurement and determination of urban growth. In this way, it was found that the city of Bandar Abbas has a high degree of freedom and degree of sprawl, and a negative degree of goodness in urban growth. Regardless of the results achieved, the current study indicates the capability of aerial photos and satellite imagery in the effectiveness of spatio-statistical models of urban geographical studies.

The poverty balancing equation: Expressing poverty of place as a population process

The measurement of poverty is essential for the development of effective poverty policy. Unfortunately, approaches using poverty rates to assess the causes and consequences of poverty do not fully capture the components of change in the poverty population. This is because changes in the conventional poverty rate can occur due to processes of natural increase, migration, or transitions in and out of poverty. This paper presents an accounting framework for changes in poverty within and between places. The framework, termed the poverty balancing equation, generates a series of summary statistics which can be used in place of the conventional poverty rate in future research. The approach is then demonstrated using the 2014 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to generate state-level estimates of the poverty components of change for states in the American South between January and December of 2013. Results show that even when poverty rates remain constant, there is significant dynamism within poor and non-poor populations. By applying this approach, researchers can provide more specific and actionable evidence for poverty alleviation policy.

The Model of Population Transition in Vietnam in Relation to Europe and Asia: A Quantitative Approach

This paper analyses the population transition model for Vietnam, based on Grover’s five stages of population transition. Compatible with the transitional model of Western Europe and other advanced Asian countries, this process in Vietnam has some significant differences: (a) the initial shift or transition of fertility of the population in Vietnam is later than in Asian countries by about 13 years while compared to Europe it is nearly 108 years later; and (b) while the period of initial transition of mortality in Vietnam may not be very different from other Asian countries, it is more than 100 years later than in European countries, especially those in Western Europe. One of the main factors influencing the late transition of Vietnam’s population process is, of course, colonialism and the consecutive wars (1945–1954 and 1955–1975). After 1975, Vietnam’s population was stable as industrialisation and urbanisation led to the development of health services, education and an urban lifestyle, as well as effective population policies.

Modelling the Wolbachia Incompatible Insect Technique: strategies for effective mosquito population elimination

The Wolbachia Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) shows promise as a method for eliminating invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus)(Diptera: Culicidae) and reducing the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Successful implementation of this biological control strategy relies on high-fidelity separation of male from female insects in mass production systems for inundative release into landscapes. Processes for sex-separating mosquitoes are typically error prone, laborious and IIT programs run the risk of releasing Wolbachia infected females and replacing wild mosquito populations. We introduce a simple Markov Population Process (MPP) model for studying mosquito populations subjected to a Wolbachia-IIT program which exhibit an unstable equilibrium threshold. The model is used to study, in silico, scenarios that are likely to yield a successful elimination result. Our results suggest that elimination is best achieved by releasing males at rates that adapt to the ever-decreasing wild population, thus reducing the risk of releasing Wolbachia-infected females while reducing costs. While very high-fidelity sex-separation is required to avoid establishment, release programs tend to be robust to the release of a small number of Wolbachia-infected females. These findings will inform and enhance the next generation of Wolbachia-IIT control strategies that are already showing great promise in field trials.